January 5-6th, 2025 The Double Digit Storm

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BookNerdCarp
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Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Post by BookNerdCarp »

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Epic lol
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tpweather
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Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Post by tpweather »

Spacejunk wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:47 pm
fyrfyter wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:45 pm
Spacejunk wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:39 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:50 pm Actually I stand corrected. Checking obs now and it is snowing in Nebraska and Kansas. KC reporting frz rain Columbia MO light snow.
Kansas City Chiefs plane is on a ground stop due to ice in KC
They aren’t leaving anytime soon.

Nice job on whoever decided leaving tonight was best.
Some exceptional planning.
Come on Kansas City get it together because we made need you to play on Sunday.
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partymarty
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Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Post by partymarty »

Has anyone mentioned the 'B' word yet? Looks like we meet Criteria Sunday evening... Not to jinx anything
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Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Post by tron777 »

partymarty wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:55 pm Has anyone mentioned the 'B' word yet? Looks like we meet Criteria Sunday evening... Not to jinx anything
Yep. Monday too with the deformation band is when I think we'll be awfully close to meeting the criteria. Here is the official definition from ILN:

https://www.weather.gov/iln/criteria-winter
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Blogsdon
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Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Post by Blogsdon »

Good to see you guys getting a storm for a change!!⛄️🌨️
Lester!
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Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

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BG is on!


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tron777
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Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

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Blogsdon wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 7:12 pm Good to see you guys getting a storm for a change!!⛄️🌨️
Lester!
Hey Brian! Nice to see you. Hope all is well!
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BookNerdCarp
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Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Post by BookNerdCarp »

Heading to the recliner to watch the Bengals. I'll be checking in on my phone for updates. Thanks all for all the work and analyzation you do.
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Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

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0Z Suite has started with the HRRR.
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Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Post by tron777 »

Start Up Times listed for everyone from the boys:

Start Time.jpg
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fyrfyter
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Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Post by fyrfyter »

0z HRRR has the start at about 11:00am for Cincinnati.
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Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Post by tron777 »

The run is pretty close to the 18Z so far I think.
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Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

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SLP might be a tad stronger but this is a nice run so far for the Metro on north. Sun afternoon and evening is def hammer time!
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Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

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We finally change to sleet by late evening but not before we get walloped with snow first for a good 8 hour period.
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Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

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Then we get the dry slot and receive sleet and or frz rain all night Sun night light precip). Deform snows return Mon late morning tapering off in the evening hours like 5-7pm range. That is my thinking anyway and I think this is where most of the guidance is headed.
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Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

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Looks like the dry slot gets close to I-70 on this run, pretty far north. (Again contains light sleet / frz drzl precip since the precip rate backs off)
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Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Post by tpweather »

Les did you check out the latest SREF. I believe you will enjoy the latest run
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Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Post by tron777 »

10.55" of snow on the mean for CVG on the new 21Z SREF Plume. Precip type shows the same thing HRRR is showing too. Snow then we back off the rate and get sleet / frz drzl then back to snow. Pretty simple ptype evolution to me. :P Juicy though! 1.89" QPF mean.
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Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Post by tron777 »

21Z SREF Mean

CVG - 10.55"
ILN - 11.35"
HAO - 11.97"
MGY - 11.8"
DAY - 10.26"
CMH - 9.1"

Sidney, OH - 7.64"
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Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Post by markalot »

HRRR, sleet holds off this run, majority is snow in CVG area.

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- Mark in Oakbrook (Burlington KY)
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Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

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I like a time line for snow with the deform band on Monday (for Cincy) to be 10am thru 5-6pm or something like that. Should be wind driven fluffy snow with the deform band. Looks great on the 0Z HRRR. Glad to see the hi res guidance have it.
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Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Post by fyrfyter »

00Z HRRR
IMG_0931.jpeg
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alexdever73
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Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Post by alexdever73 »

Are you not worried bout that Dry slot cutting down on deform band. Hate to see that get eaten up
Last edited by alexdever73 on Sat Jan 04, 2025 8:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

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0Z NAM incoming...
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Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Post by fyrfyter »

alexdever73 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 8:46 pm Are no worried bout that Dry slot cutting down on deform band. Hate to see that get eaten up
With the accumulations in the models, I’m not sure anyone is bothered by that. We get it just about every time.
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