Absolute Vorticity

GFS and Euro have been fairly consistent recently on showing a snowstorm potential for us southern Ohio Valley folks on Monday, Jan 15. Definitely do not see warm air being a concern with this system. Question is, will this system turn out weaker than what is showing or will dry artic air keep moisture further south? Seems like a decent snowfall chance currently for south of the Ohio River. With the cold air in place, snow ratios will definitely be in our favor.
Euro

Hello DJ. I will pin the thread.

One thing is for certain... we will finally have true arctic air to play with for high snow ratios. The track and strength are of course TBD. Then the arctic hammer drops behind this system. Going below zero is certainly not out of the question next week especially if we can get a deeper snow pack down.

DJKuo wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 10:10 am GFS and Euro have been fairly consistent recently on showing a snowstorm potential for us southern Ohio Valley folks on Monday, Jan 15. Definitely do not see warm air being a concern with this system. Question is, will this system turn out weaker than what is showing or will dry artic air keep moisture further south? Seems like a decent snowfall chance currently for south of the Ohio River. With the cold air in place, snow ratios will definitely be in our favor.

trend-gfs-2024010906-f168.snku_024h-imp.conus.gif

Euro
floop-ecmwf_full-2024010900.prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.us_ov.gif

Hey DJ welcome to the board! We need more folks like you on here from the Commonwealth!

At present I do favor a "Kentucky Special" so to speak, but in all honesty, the entire OV has a chance...especially if the stronger Euro runs are accurate. The baroclinic zone setting up is going to be WILD which would favor a strong storm.

Weaker would be better for KY.

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 10:52 am

DJKuo wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 10:10 am GFS and Euro have been fairly consistent recently on showing a snowstorm potential for us southern Ohio Valley folks on Monday, Jan 15. Definitely do not see warm air being a concern with this system. Question is, will this system turn out weaker than what is showing or will dry artic air keep moisture further south? Seems like a decent snowfall chance currently for south of the Ohio River. With the cold air in place, snow ratios will definitely be in our favor.

trend-gfs-2024010906-f168.snku_024h-imp.conus.gif

Euro
floop-ecmwf_full-2024010900.prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.us_ov.gif

Hey DJ welcome to the board! We need more folks like you on here from the Commonwealth!

At present I do favor a "Kentucky Special" so to speak, but in all honesty, the entire OV has a chance...especially if the stronger Euro runs are accurate. The baroclinic zone setting up is going to be WILD which would favor a strong storm.

Weaker would be better for KY.

Hopefully, it doesn't blow up too much and we end up with an Ice storm with the Arctic air in place!

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 10:59 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 10:52 am

DJKuo wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 10:10 am GFS and Euro have been fairly consistent recently on showing a snowstorm potential for us southern Ohio Valley folks on Monday, Jan 15. Definitely do not see warm air being a concern with this system. Question is, will this system turn out weaker than what is showing or will dry artic air keep moisture further south? Seems like a decent snowfall chance currently for south of the Ohio River. With the cold air in place, snow ratios will definitely be in our favor.

trend-gfs-2024010906-f168.snku_024h-imp.conus.gif

Euro
floop-ecmwf_full-2024010900.prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.us_ov.gif

Hey DJ welcome to the board! We need more folks like you on here from the Commonwealth!

At present I do favor a "Kentucky Special" so to speak, but in all honesty, the entire OV has a chance...especially if the stronger Euro runs are accurate. The baroclinic zone setting up is going to be WILD which would favor a strong storm.

Weaker would be better for KY.

Hopefully, it doesn't blow up too much and we end up with an Ice storm with the Arctic air in place!

I did have a bold prediction for a major ice storm in January back in Nov when I posted my winter outlook...

I'm not concerned about an ice storm for this one... suppression is the concern at this point IMO. We'll have to wait and see if the models are overdoing or underdoing the strength of the arctic high coming in. It looks like we get a tiny little wave Sat night as the arctic front drops in. We'll see where the boundary stalls for this system to track along. Right now it looks to be over the TN Valley per a good majority of the guidance whereas we should want to be over Central and SKY.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 11:39 am I'm not concerned about an ice storm for this one... suppression is the concern at this point IMO. We'll have to wait and see if the models are overdoing or underdoing the strength of the arctic high coming in. It looks like we get a tiny little wave Sat night as the arctic front drops in. We'll see where the boundary stalls for this system to track along. Right now it looks to be over the TN Valley per a good majority of the guidance whereas we should want to be over Central and SKY.

Yeah agreed on no ice threat with this one (at least not here...there may be some in the Deep South).

That will be more of a threat down the road when we see the cold relax a bit and have some overrunning action.

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 11:48 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 11:39 am I'm not concerned about an ice storm for this one... suppression is the concern at this point IMO. We'll have to wait and see if the models are overdoing or underdoing the strength of the arctic high coming in. It looks like we get a tiny little wave Sat night as the arctic front drops in. We'll see where the boundary stalls for this system to track along. Right now it looks to be over the TN Valley per a good majority of the guidance whereas we should want to be over Central and SKY.

Yeah agreed on no ice threat with this one (at least not here...there may be some in the Deep South).

That will be more of a threat down the road when we see the cold relax a bit and have some overrunning action.

Strongly agree... our best chances for snow storms are usually when the cold air is moving in or moving out. We know there will be some kind of a storm with the cold air moving in (this thread's discussion) and I would look for another as the cold air relaxes as you mentioned. That should be sometime after the 20th. As a matter of fact, you can see exactly what we are talking about on todays 12Z GFS run.

12Z Canadian is much further to the NW with the baroclinic zone for this wave to track along.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 12:06 pm 12Z Canadian is much further to the NW with the baroclinic zone for this wave to track along.

Les, one thing is for sure...Like you said yesterday, our heads are spinning keeping track of this BUSY storm pattern!

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 12:13 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 12:06 pm 12Z Canadian is much further to the NW with the baroclinic zone for this wave to track along.

Les, one thing is for sure...Like you said yesterday, our heads are spinning keeping track of this BUSY storm pattern!

Very much so! I'm getting a headache trying to keep it all straight to make sure I am posting in the correct threads.

As I just posted in the Jan 12-13th thread... the Euro is way amp'ed and NW with that system so in turn, that is going to impact the evolution of the MLK Storm we are discussing in this thread. If the weaker solution like the GFS is correct tracking the 12-13th low near us, then I would expect a more suppressed solution for the MLK system. However, if the more NW track is right that the current Euro is showing for the 12-13th, then I would expect a more NW track for the MLK system too which would deliver better snowfall to us. We'll see what the Euro does with the MLK system shortly. My thought process here could be wrong, but that is kind of how I am thinking things through.

Now at 132 hours... comparing the 0Z Euro versus the new 12Z run... high is a bit stronger at 1045 MB coming into S Canada, however, the low over CO is stronger at 999 MB versus 1002 MB down in Mexico from the 0Z. A bit of a squeeze play if you will going on. Euro has two lows on this run, and IMO it just doesn't look right. It looks like it is going to be even more suppressed then the 0Z run but it doesn't make sense to me based on what I said in my above post. I personally would not write this one off yet for Cincinnati. I just don't think things are being handled correctly at this time. It's like a domino effect with the active pattern we are in. La Bomba sets the table for the 12-13th storm. That one sets the table for the MLK storm, etc etc. I hope this all make sense lol

QPF for CVG on this run is 0.25" Remember, with arctic air to work with, this is going to be a light powdery snow so ratios will be higher then usual. Could easily be 18 or 20:1 IMO.

Euro of past runs not too different in QPF placement but trending drier.

EPS has come in with a mean of about .20” for the region. No more shifts south please

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 12:13 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 12:06 pm 12Z Canadian is much further to the NW with the baroclinic zone for this wave to track along.

Les, one thing is for sure...Like you said yesterday, our heads are spinning keeping track of this BUSY storm pattern!

Joe, at least this kind of head spinning doesn't require a priest and an exorcism.

Welcome to the AV Community Family, DJ!

Currently a "balmy" 48 here in G'ville.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 3:00 pm

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 12:13 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 12:06 pm 12Z Canadian is much further to the NW with the baroclinic zone for this wave to track along.

Les, one thing is for sure...Like you said yesterday, our heads are spinning keeping track of this BUSY storm pattern!

Joe, at least this kind of head spinning doesn't require a priest and an exorcism.

Eric, maybe that's what we need to get a decent snowstorm around here!

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 3:16 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 3:00 pm

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 12:13 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 12:06 pm 12Z Canadian is much further to the NW with the baroclinic zone for this wave to track along.

Les, one thing is for sure...Like you said yesterday, our heads are spinning keeping track of this BUSY storm pattern!

Joe, at least this kind of head spinning doesn't require a priest and an exorcism.

Eric, maybe that's what we need to get a decent snowstorm around here!

I second this!

18Z GFS has really sped up this system. Most of the snow falls on Sunday and it's over for the AM Commute on MLK Day. Personally since I have to work, I'd be totally cool with a faster outcome. The good news is that QPF has increased on this run. For CVG, we get around 0.35" and with those high snow ratios that I've talked about, this would certainly be worth breaking out the shovels! I think a faster solution would help us in the QPF dept honestly because you know when the arctic plunge comes, the airmass will be very cold and dry! I still am very much hopeful for this system IMHO.

18z gfs looked nice for us! Until the next storms path gets narrowed down I really don’t know what model to believe lol! Going to be fun watch u fold though!

mikeyp wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 5:29 pm 18z gfs looked nice for us! Until the next storms path gets narrowed down I really don’t know what model to believe lol! Going to be fun watch u fold though!

We just have to take it one step at a time Mike since things are so active. It's really all we can do to try and get the forecast correct. Hope you and Ashley are doing well Bro! Always glad to see you post and wish you could do so more often!

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 5:34 pm

mikeyp wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 5:29 pm 18z gfs looked nice for us! Until the next storms path gets narrowed down I really don’t know what model to believe lol! Going to be fun watch u fold though!

We just have to take it one step at a time Mike since things are so active. It's really all we can do to try and get the forecast correct. Hope you and Ashley are doing well Bro! Always glad to see you post and wish you could do so more often!

Don’t worry! I will be posting more! We are doing great, thanks for asking man! Hope all is well for you; we need to get some big snow in here and then some storms in the spring! That should keep us all happy!

mikeyp wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 5:37 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 5:34 pm

mikeyp wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 5:29 pm 18z gfs looked nice for us! Until the next storms path gets narrowed down I really don’t know what model to believe lol! Going to be fun watch u fold though!

We just have to take it one step at a time Mike since things are so active. It's really all we can do to try and get the forecast correct. Hope you and Ashley are doing well Bro! Always glad to see you post and wish you could do so more often!

Don’t worry! I will be posting more! We are doing great, thanks for asking man! Hope all is well for you; we need to get some big snow in here and then some storms in the spring! That should keep us all happy!

No doubt!!! Glad to hear it man! Life's been pretty crazy for me as of late, (work and non-work stuff) but hopefully that is peaking and I'll get more time to post. Yeah I post a lot as it is, but not nearly the volume that I was doing. Family has been sick but we are slowly getting better! A nice snow would certainly be some good medicine for me anyway. LOL