Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

[Bgoney]

Elsa would have to be Houdini to escape hitting an island before impacting the US. Still appears the NHC expects the current strength to be the strongest she gets. Thus, they think she's going to get shredded by land at some point in her trek through the Caribbean

[MVWxObserver]

If any part of Elsa interacts with Hispaniola i.e. 'down the road' that mountainous terrain is notorious for rendering tropical systems.

[tron777]

If any part of Elsa interacts with Hispaniola i.e. 'down the road' that mountainous terrain is notorious for rendering tropical systems.

Agreee... same with Cuba.

[tpweather]

Good Morning, Hispaniola and the central and eastern parts of Cuba have plenty of mountains to hurt the chances of it getting stronger. If the path can take it further west over western Cuba then there is a chance of the system to get somewhat stronger. No problem with the waters being warm enough and tons of moisture already available so the track will play a key role in how strong this system can get. Still plenty of rainfall for much of Florida as the state had been dry until the last few weeks and they are catching up quickly.

[tron777]

Elsa is down to a TS with winds of 70 mph moving WNW at 29.

[MVWxObserver]

Elsa down to 65 mph and WNW at 15 mph moving between Haiti and Jamaica.

[Bgoney]

Elsa is a bit disheveled these days. Pressure around 1009 mb . Very Little wind. A nod to the EUs solution from a day or two ago, that its headed to being a wave than a hurricane. Still has circulation according to radar though, so something to still pay attention to

[tpweather]

Elsa is a bit disheveled these days. Pressure around 1009 mb . Very Little wind. A nod to the EUs solution from a day or two ago, that its headed to being a wave than a hurricane. Still has circulation according to radar though, so something to still pay attention to

So far the Euro has done better and really it all depends exactly where it crosses Cuba. The central and eastern parts have mountains that can disrupt a storm but if somehow it heads a little further west before its northward turn the it has a better chance of becoming a hurricane. There is some energy with this system and no doubt plenty of tropical moisture. I know the Euro and CMC has always had a track mainly on the eastern side of Florida where the gfs has been on the western side. Have not checked models today as I just got back in town.

[Bgoney]

All the mods have had a less than stellar performance with Elsa. HWRF has been terrible with strength, GFS and EU back and forth and today's runs are more of the same.

[MVWxObserver]

Will be interesting how the effects of Elsa impact the rescue / recovery and cleanup in Surfside, FL.

[tron777]

Elsa has winds of 60 mph moving NW at 14.

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021

...ELSA NEARING LANDFALL IN WEST-CENTRAL CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 80.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ESE OF CAYO LARGO CUBA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

Elsa.png

[Bgoney]

Models in good agreement now, 4-6" for the western half of Florida, should only result in minor flooding issues

[tpweather]

Models in good agreement now, 4-6" for the western half of Florida, should only result in minor flooding issues

Yes the CMC finally caved and went towards the Euro which had recently went towards the gfs. Getting 4-6 inches should be no problem as until the past few weeks they have been below average so they can handle that with no problem. The concern is it gets somewhat stronger over the GOM and hits Hurricane status but even if that happen the system looks rather progressive.

[MVWxObserver]

My folks and I have some friends from our Hamilton days who retired to Tampa a few years ago. Look to get a good soaking.

[tron777]

Elsa has winds of 50 mph moving NW at 14 crossing over Cuba tonight and impacting FL over the next couple of days.

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 AM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

...ELSA NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS...
...HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 82.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM S OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

[Bgoney]

I get the Hurricane watch but I think its less likely to become a Hurricane . Shear doing its thing on the left side of center of circulation, pushing convection north and east. 60 mph gust with a heavier band in key west but outside of bands 30- 40 suatained

[tpweather]

I get the Hurricane watch but I think its less likely to become a Hurricane . Shear doing its thing on the left side of center of circulation, pushing convection north and east. 60 mph gust with a heavier band in key west but outside of bands 30- 40 suatained

That is what I have noticed with this system is the west side has plenty of dry air involved. I thought since its back over water it may be able to strengthen some and the longer the whole system stays away from land the better chance of hurricane status. The good thing is the forward motion of the system and it is rather small but compact so it hopefully will not stay in one area too long.

[tpweather]

Starting to hear reports of a tornado in southwest Florida. Very common during tropical systems and another reason Florida is the leader in tornado's most years. Saying that you seldom get the stronger ones you can see in the central and southern plains but with winds going in different directions because of how the state is surrounded by water is why you get so many every year.

[tpweather]

The new advisory as led the NHC to issue a Hurricane Warning for parts of the Florida Gulf Coast. Probably a good ideal as there is plenty of energy with this system and maybe just enough time over the open waters to have it strengthen enough to warrant the Warning.

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Elsa Special Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

...ELSA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 83.0W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM NW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM S OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

[Bgoney]

Really close to hurricane criteria despite shear on its west side , what a fighter.

[tpweather]

Really close to hurricane criteria despite shear on its west side , what a fighter.

The good thing is the motion and its moving rather quickly or this could have been a really nice Hurricane. When I saw some of the damage in the islands it always worries me the models are not quite picking up on the strength. Maybe I am just so old I have seen this played out again and again. Getting most of the circulation off the coast is key to this one getting to Cat 1 or even Cat 2 low end.

[tron777]

Still holding at 70 mph moving N at 10 as of 5pm.