November 2023 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and we are almost on the same page. I believe you are somewhat on the wetter side over the next 2 weeks but everything else seems we are in agreement. We need the cold build up in northern and central Canada over the next few weeks and then we need to see what happens. Yes getting the PV to weaken or split and head this way is the best way to get cold air but yes you can get cold air with a stronger storm in southern Canada to grab some cold air and head this way. Though without the PV most cold spells are short in nature.

Still believe the GOM is loaded and once the STJ really gets going expect systems from Texas to the Carolina's to be in full force. Still believe that is still a few weeks away and one reason I believe we are have some showers here and there but nothing strong or major cold front until then.

I still believe late Nov or early Dec we get off to a decent start to met winter but will it be one that is long lasting or just a 3-5 day period where it gets cold and we get some snow. Usually when the El Nino gets going a major storm seems to be the key and will that happen late Nov and early Dec and we just wait and see.

Hey Tim, good morning! I am ramping up my rainfall talk after mid month, the 3rd week of November. Until then, as Bgoney has correctly mentioned, we are in a zonal flow pattern with some troughing over the Pacific NW and ridging for us. That pattern of mild with light rain type systems should continue thru mid month. Then, I am expecting the STJ to kick in Week 3. If I understand your post correctly, I am probably a week earlier then you. You expect it to kick in the week of Thanksgiving? I hope I did not misunderstand so please correct me if I did.

Hey Les and my post was not the best on timing but I do believe the last week of November gets busy. So lets go with Nov 23-30 we have plenty to talk about hopefully

[tron777]

Hey Les and my post was not the best on timing but I do believe the last week of November gets busy. So lets go with Nov 23-30 we have plenty to talk about hopefully

All good Tim, thanks! I just wanted to be sure that I was not misinterpreting your post.

[tron777]

After viewing the 12Z GFS, CMC, and GEFS, I honestly have no changes to the ongoing forecast over the next week to 10 days. No changes to the longer term either.

[tpweather]

Sounds good Les and I watched Brian's video and he did talk about gathering moisture in the southern plains I believe in week 2 but models are having a hard time figuring out where the moisture may go and does it head towards the Lakes or stay south in the southeast. At this moment I believe the southern plan has the best shot but something to look at next week. I believe locally we may see a day or two or showers next week but nothing really organized as we may be in that area where not much happens. The following week I believe the country as a whole gets busy but exactly where that may occur is still up in the air.

[tron777]

Sounds good Les and I watched Brian's video and he did talk about gathering moisture in the southern plains I believe in week 2 but models are having a hard time figuring out where the moisture may go and does it head towards the Lakes or stay south in the southeast. At this moment I believe the southern plan has the best shot but something to look at next week. I believe locally we may see a day or two or showers next week but nothing really organized as we may be in that area where not much happens. The following week I believe the country as a whole gets busy but exactly where that may occur is still up in the air.

I totally agree with your post here Tim. It looks like what we see is what we get for the next 2 weeks. In Week 3 if my call is right we get more active. Week 4 for your call. That's about where we stand at this point.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and a nice day underway. Nothing new like Les mentioned and though rain is in the forecast several days next week I am not expecting much in the way of totals. I can see maybe 1/4-1/3 of an inch total and that is with the front nearby a couple of days you may get a little with a warm front and then again with a cold front but the pattern is rather aggressive so no big storms in store. I have no problem being the 2nd week of November and hard to get winter weather during this time period.

[tron777]

An overachiever for temps today thanks to sunshine and strong southerly flow. 60 at CVG today, 62 here. A decent weekend on tap. Rain chances for next week look light as previously mentioned. Wed and Thurs are the best chances for folks to receive rainfall then we drop back into the 50s for highs by Friday and next weekend. Probably 40s for highs I-70 Crew. Then we warm up again for a while with dry conditions.

[MVWxObserver]

I totally agree with you Bgoney and Les! Today's kids have it way too easy and on a lot of routes in life!

Exception being the woke curriculum in public schools which needs to be abolished and back to the appropriate common sense innocence of childhood subjects of the 3 Rs readin', ritin', and 'rithmatic etc. Cursive writing and not chicken scratch printing e.g.

Currently 52 here in G'ville and progged for around 44 early Sat morning.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 60 and both DAY / CMH 61 today.

[tron777]

Good morning all! 50 degrees this morning in my hood with mostly cloudy skies. A few sprinkles / light showers have been around but the vast majority of you will remain dry today. We should also see a bit of sun poking thru the clouds today as well. Low to mid 60s looks good for today. Plenty of sunshine for tomorrow with similar temps. The weather looks good for the Bengals game tomorrow night.

We may even hit the 70 degree mark on Monday and maybe even Wed of next week! No changes to the rain chance call which you are already aware of. I hope everyone has a great weekend! Leaf grinding for me today is my big project.

As a side note: My work schedule is changing. Still Monday - Friday but I will be working 6am until 3pm now so I'll be posting a lot earlier. I am still work from home until the week of Thanksgiving. Then I am back in the Mason, OH office where my posting will most likely decrease during working hours, but at least I'll be home earlier to post more frequently. I'm going to need you guys to pick up the slack around here!

[tron777]

Oh and FYI... Don't forget to set your clocks back 1 hour before you go to bed tonight. Change those smoke alarm batteries too! The good news is we get weather model data an hour earlier starting tomorrow.

[MVWxObserver]

Oh and FYI... Don't forget to set your clocks back 1 hour before you go to bed tonight. Change those smoke alarm batteries too! The good news is we get weather model data an hour earlier starting tomorrow.

Yay dusky darkness at 5:30 or 6 o'clock!

I sure wish the current Congress e.g. would just make it DST year-round since there's 8 months of it compared to 4 months of Standard time. So stupid the falling back and springing forward anymore.

Currently 46 here in G'ville and progged for around 61 today.

[tron777]

I agree Eric. Pick Standard Time or DST, I don't care which and stick with it.

[tpweather]

Oh and FYI... Don't forget to set your clocks back 1 hour before you go to bed tonight. Change those smoke alarm batteries too! The good news is we get weather model data an hour earlier starting tomorrow.

Yay dusky darkness at 5:30 or 6 o'clock!

I sure wish the current Congress e.g. would just make it DST year-round since there's 8 months of it compared to 4 months of Standard time. So stupid the falling back and springing forward anymore.

Currently 46 here in G'ville and progged for around 61 today.

I agree but the congress can't agree on anything including the color of the sky. Is it blue or green and of course both answers are incorrect

[MVWxObserver]

Oh and FYI... Don't forget to set your clocks back 1 hour before you go to bed tonight. Change those smoke alarm batteries too! The good news is we get weather model data an hour earlier starting tomorrow.

Yay dusky darkness at 5:30 or 6 o'clock!

I sure wish the current Congress e.g. would just make it DST year-round since there's 8 months of it compared to 4 months of Standard time. So stupid the falling back and springing forward anymore.

Currently 46 here in G'ville and progged for around 61 today.

I agree but the congress can't agree on anything including the color of the sky. Is it blue or green and of course both answers are incorrect

I agree Tim, it would probably take a few weeks and possibly until around 1 o'clock in the morning.

[tron777]

Oh and FYI... Don't forget to set your clocks back 1 hour before you go to bed tonight. Change those smoke alarm batteries too! The good news is we get weather model data an hour earlier starting tomorrow.

Yay dusky darkness at 5:30 or 6 o'clock!

I sure wish the current Congress e.g. would just make it DST year-round since there's 8 months of it compared to 4 months of Standard time. So stupid the falling back and springing forward anymore.

Currently 46 here in G'ville and progged for around 61 today.

I agree but the congress can't agree on anything including the color of the sky. Is it blue or green and of course both answers are incorrect

I agree Tim, it would probably take a few weeks and possibly until around 1 o'clock in the morning.

You meant to say decades right?

[tron777]

Good evening all! 68 here today, CVG topped out at 66. Got that round of leaves ground up. I am pretty much waiting for the oaks to cut loose now. Hopefully I'll be done by Thanksgiving or so for the season.

[Bgoney]

It’s early model run season , yay. Don’t have to wait until 5 pm to get the EU ensembles

[tron777]

Good morning all! 38 here this morning, CVG bottomed out at 42. A nice day on tap as we've said with sunshine and low to mid 60s expected this afternoon. A nice night for football down at Paycor with temps in the 50s falling into the 40s throughout the game. Rain chances next week continue to look slim until Thursday when the front passes. Modeling currently has the heaviest rains falling south of us with that particular system. 70 on Monday for temps warming into the 70s by Wed ahead of the front coming in for Thurs. Highs drop back into the 50s next weekend. Then we warm up again and stay on the dry side for a while. So honestly, not a lot of change to report so that's why my posts kind of keep sounding the same.

[tpweather]

Great Post Les and last week models were just to wet for the upcoming week. Going to take a little time to get the northern jet and southern jet getting together. Sure each jet can provide their own system but usually week and precip remain mainly to our north and south. I still love the build up of cold air in the northern regions which is allowing the PV to gain strength. I like its getting strong in early November instead of early December which gives us a better shot of the PV losing strength once we get in the heart of winter.

[tron777]

Great Post Les and last week models were just to wet for the upcoming week. Going to take a little time to get the northern jet and southern jet getting together. Sure each jet can provide their own system but usually week and precip remain mainly to our north and south. I still love the build up of cold air in the northern regions which is allowing the PV to gain strength. I like its getting strong in early November instead of early December which gives us a better shot of the PV losing strength once we get in the heart of winter.

The EPS has backed off from its previous idea of a weaker PV come mid December as well as the SSW idea. It's still a long ways off though, and I wouldn't really worry about much beyond the 10-14 day period anyway. For now though, no changes to what we are currently seeing pattern wise. As Bgoney said, the MJO isn't going to change for a while either. Hopefully, we get cooler the week of Thanksgiving, if the +PNA spike some of the guidance is showing pans out. As usual, we shall see!

[MVWxObserver]

CVG, DAY and CMH all reached 66 yesterday.

Currently 46 here in G'ville and progged for around 58 today.

[tpweather]

Great Post Les and last week models were just to wet for the upcoming week. Going to take a little time to get the northern jet and southern jet getting together. Sure each jet can provide their own system but usually week and precip remain mainly to our north and south. I still love the build up of cold air in the northern regions which is allowing the PV to gain strength. I like its getting strong in early November instead of early December which gives us a better shot of the PV losing strength once we get in the heart of winter.

The EPS has backed off from its previous idea of a weaker PV come mid December as well as the SSW idea. It's still a long ways off though, and I wouldn't really worry about much beyond the 10-14 day period anyway. For now though, no changes to what we are currently seeing pattern wise. As Bgoney said, the MJO isn't going to change for a while either. Hopefully, we get cooler the week of Thanksgiving, if the +PNA spike some of the guidance is showing pans out. As usual, we shall see!

Les I had no idea the EPS was showing a weaker PV in mid December. When you guys post the longer term models is usually the only time I look at those and thanks for supplying those items. At the moment colder air is really trying to form in northern Canada more so than Siberia and again November just started and many things can change but I like the PV being more on this side of the planet. Again many times the PV will be on both sides depending how strong and how wide is is showing. Many times we do get the elongated PV which send some cold down to either Asia,Europe or the USA. When that happens the cold can be nice but in more narrow area.

[tron777]

Great Post Les and last week models were just to wet for the upcoming week. Going to take a little time to get the northern jet and southern jet getting together. Sure each jet can provide their own system but usually week and precip remain mainly to our north and south. I still love the build up of cold air in the northern regions which is allowing the PV to gain strength. I like its getting strong in early November instead of early December which gives us a better shot of the PV losing strength once we get in the heart of winter.

The EPS has backed off from its previous idea of a weaker PV come mid December as well as the SSW idea. It's still a long ways off though, and I wouldn't really worry about much beyond the 10-14 day period anyway. For now though, no changes to what we are currently seeing pattern wise. As Bgoney said, the MJO isn't going to change for a while either. Hopefully, we get cooler the week of Thanksgiving, if the +PNA spike some of the guidance is showing pans out. As usual, we shall see!

Les I had no idea the EPS was showing a weaker PV in mid December. When you guys post the longer term models is usually the only time I look at those and thanks for supplying those items. At the moment colder air is really trying to form in northern Canada more so than Siberia and again November just started and many things can change but I like the PV being more on this side of the planet. Again many times the PV will be on both sides depending how strong and how wide is is showing. Many times we do get the elongated PV which send some cold down to either Asia,Europe or the USA. When that happens the cold can be nice but in more narrow area.

Getting a weaker PV or even a SSW is rare in an El Nino but the odds do go up when you combine that with a -QBO which we have in our favor. It is going to come down to the blocking up top and the PV to see if we get decent cold shots this winter. If you can time a shot of cold air with the active STJ then we will have some fun periods ahead. Otherwise, it will be mild if we don't see it. I favor blocking and a +PNA at times simply because that has been the overall pattern as a whole since Spring, so it's been very persistent. At the same time, we still have La Nina like effects going on right now with the -PDO. So again... lots of conflicting signals attm which is a big point that I have been touting for a while now.