Absolute Vorticity

...JULIA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...12.9N 73.9W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NNE OF BARRANQUILLA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

TS Julia has winds of 60 this morning moving W at 18.

Tropical Atlantic season will go done as a dud in terms of the amount of storms but 1 big one can sort of change the medias coverage of how Hurricanes are becoming stronger and more often.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:42 am Tropical Atlantic season will go done as a dud in terms of the amount of storms but 1 big one can sort of change the medias coverage of how Hurricanes are becoming stronger and more often.

I am not sure how much more action we'll see in the Atlantic. Cannot rule out a couple more named storms, but you're right. If we see nothing else, this season will certainly be remembered for Ian. Like 1992 was a quiet season but will always be remembered for Andrew.

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Julia has winds of 75 mph this morning making landfall over Central America. Like Bonnie, this one should also re-emerge into the Eastern Pacific.

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TS Karl has formed in the S Gulf. It is not expected to bother the US only Mexico.

Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

...KARL FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...19.6N 94.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

Karl has winds of 40 mph moving slowly NNW at 6.

Karl has winds of 50 mph nearly stationary in the S Gulf. We have a new wave off of Africa that has a 20% chance in the next 5 days,

Karl is barely holding on with winds of 40 mph moving SE at 6. Eventually it will run into Central America. Can it re-emerge into the East Pac? We shall see!

Karl has made landfall on the Yucatan. The storm is now post tropical.

It's been a while, but we've got a wave to track now with 20 / 30 for odds for development. Per the NHC, there is a trough located from the Caribbean Sea to the Western Atlantic (Bermuda). The tropical wave is just N of Puerto Rico drifting north. There is a small window for a sub tropical system to develop before it gets ripped apart in the Western ATL. No threat to the CONUS is expected at this time.


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

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We've got PTC 15 now soon to become TS Lisa. This one will head west thru the Caribbean and into Central America as a possible Cat 1 'cane.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lisa Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

...LISA A LITTLE STRONGER SOUTH OF JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...15.4N 77.6W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

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Lisa has winds of 45 mph today with her days being numbered as Central America awaits her fate. We also have a new wave with a 90% chance of development in the Central ATL. Could become a subtropical system.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

We've got TS Martin now... This one may become a hurricane in time and eventually die towards Greenland.

Tropical Storm Martin Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022
1100 AM AST Tue Nov 01 2022

...MARTIN FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...35.3N 55.9W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

Lisa has winds of 70 moving W at 15. A Cat 1 cane is possible before making landfall in Central America. Martin has winds of 65 mph moving ENE at 15 and not expected to impact anyone.

Lisa is down to a TS now with winds of 45 moving W at 10 over the Yucatan Penn. Can Lisa survive and make it back into the S Gulf or is she about over with? Martin is still a cane with winds of 85 moving NNE at 46! Martin is expected to weaken into a TS this weekend over the N ATL and eventually it may head towards Spain and Portugal.

Lisa is in the S Golf now but will remain a weak TD for the next day or two then weaken off the board.

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