Absolute Vorticity

Sun is out now and you can feel the temps rising and humidity increasing. CAPE is nice already with 1500 J/KG already available. Lapse rates are nice to the SW of us but the most limiting factor right now that I see is shear. Best wind shear is north of our local area so we'll see if any of that works south as we go throughout the day. Best chance of severe is still SE of I-71 most certainly for late this afternoon and evening but it is not zero for other areas either. We watch and wait.

The boys had this to say around 9:30 am:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A weak front will slowly drift to the SE into WC OH by this
afternoon, with some drier air attempting to filter E into the NW
third of the ILN FA by midday. To the SE of that, particularly near
and S of the I-71 corridor, sfc dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower
60s will support some fairly good diurnal destabilization across the
SE 2/3 of the local area by early afternoon, characterized by MLCAPE
on the order of 1000+ J/kg in these areas by 18z.

There are likely going to be two areas of storms that will be the
focus as we progress through the daytime. Firstly, although the
forcing and lift should be somewhat meager, the tightening instby
gradient, which should position itself very close/nearly parallel to
the I-71 corridor by 18z, may be just enough amidst an uncapped
environment for ISO/SCT convection to develop within this axis by
early/mid afternoon. This CI is most favored early afternoon within
a corridor stretching from near Franklin Co IN to Delaware Co OH,
particularly E of I-75 and near/S of I-71. This activity, which
should be cellular/discrete in nature, perhaps merging into small
clusters, may pose a local large hail and damaging wind threat as it
shifts to the ESE more into central/south-central OH by 21z as the
pool of instby shrinks with drier air infiltrating from the W.

Meanwhile, the second focus is going to be a better organized
MCS that will be approaching from the SW by 21z, moving into far SE
IN and N KY by 21z and expected to track to the ENE through 01z. This
will place the best severe threat early evening across the SE third
of the ILN forecast area. Some convection along a warm advection
wing ahead of the MCS is also possible. The severe threat may persist
a bit past 01z as the mature or decaying moves across NE KY and far
southern OH into mid evening, with the severe threat decreasing late
evening.

With sufficient effect bulk shear on the order of ~30-40kts and the
LL bulk shear vector oriented at approximately 250 degrees at 40kts,
any N-S or NNW-ESE oriented linear segment will bring with it an
elevated damaging wind risk, which seems most favored in parts of N
KY and far south-central OH within that 21z-01z time frame.

Seeing some tall thunderheads, hail could be a problem

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri May 02, 2025 1:44 pm Seeing some tall thunderheads, hail could be a problem

Agreed. Lapse rates are very steep! Hail is going to be an issue with the stronger storms along with wind. TOR threat is very low.

T-storm watch box now until 9pm:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0213.html

Radar is starting to get active now with broken lines of storms developing mainly N of the River. 2000 J/KG of CAPE. Shear is still better to the north at this time.

Latest thinking from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front is slowly drifting southeast toward I-71 this
afternoon. Warm (temperatures in the lower to middle 70s) and humid
conditions (dew points in the lower to middle 60s) southeast of the
front have contributed to an unstable environment ahead of the
boundary. SPC mesoscale analysis suggests moderate MLCAPE in the
range of 1000-1500 J/kg in environment with ~35 knots of effective
shear. This environment could support some severe storms with
damaging winds and hail being the primary threats through the middle
to late afternoon. A few showers and storms have already initiated
just ahead of the boundary and exhibited downburst divergent
signatures on radar and nickel size hail has been observed. Overall
storm coverage prior to this evening is likely to remain isolated to
widely scattered primarily along and northwest of I-71.

More widespread storm coverage is forecast this evening when a
mature or decaying MCS moves in from the southwest. Arrival time is
likely to be southwest of the Tri-State around 8pm before moving
northeast through the area by around 11pm or midnight. Some warm
advection wing storms are possible as the MCS arrives before the
main line of storms moves through. Straight lines winds will be the
main severe threat this evening especially in any bowing segments.
There is a chance that waining instability could hasten MCS decay by
the time the storms arrive in south central Ohio.

The chance for showers persists tonight in the wake of the MCS.

.20” here from a quick t-shower

Some dry air has mixed down. Dew is down to 57 now at CVG. CAPE is still decent for now though. We watch and wait....

A t-storm is in progress here with moderate rain, thunder, and some decent lightning. Nothing severe at this time.

Should see some decent rainfall amounts as that MCV slowly moves in. A wet few hours ahead...

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
East central Switzerland County in southeastern Indiana...
Eastern Carroll County in northern Kentucky...
Kenton County in northern Kentucky...
Southern Campbell County in northern Kentucky...
Southern Boone County in northern Kentucky...
Northern Grant County in northern Kentucky...
Northwestern Owen County in northern Kentucky...
Northwestern Pendleton County in northern Kentucky...
Gallatin County in northern Kentucky...

* Until 600 PM EDT.

* At 522 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Kentucky
Speedway, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines.

* Locations impacted include...
Visalia, Atwood, Grants Lick, Florence, Ryle, Northcutt, Big Bone
Lick, Wheatley, Steele Bottom, Bracht, Gardnersville, New Liberty,
Ricedale, Fiskburg, Kentucky Speedway, Beaverlick, Egypt Bottom,
Elliston, Munk, and Ethridge.

This includes the following Interstates...
I-71 in Kentucky between mile markers 47 and 77.
I-75 in Kentucky between mile markers 157 and 181.

Nothing severe here but it is very noisy with a lot of rain.

6pm totals and counting...

CVG - 0.15"
Me - 0.25"
Boone Co mesonet - 0.05"

Updated rain totals:

CVG - 0.64"
Me - 0.76"
Boone Co Mesonet - 0.18"

CVG / CMH both reached 77 and DAY 76 on Fri.

Good morning all! A wet weekend ahead esp today. Tomorrow should have some dry hours in there but certainly more wet hours today. An additional inch is possible in some areas today. Likely POPS continue Sunday and Monday with a dry Tuesday of next week. Then, we re-introduce chance POPS for the remainder of the new work week.

Updated totals....

CVG - 0.68"
Me - 0.84"
Boone Co mesonet - 0.37"

Rainfall totals in the area since March 1st:

Good Morning and the rain continues through the weekend. By the time this ends starting this past Thursday 1-3 inches seems good though probably leaning more towards 2-3 for most folks. We dry out some next week but still chances of rain pop up again later in the week though we look to be on the northern edge so something to watch and see where the trends show over the next few days. Besides that temps will average near normal though highs could be below normal because of clouds overnight lows could be higher because of those same clouds so we call it near normal. Hope everyone enjoys the weekend

Someone please stop the rain!!!

Nice band of moderate rain and sometimes heavy moving through the area. After this moves through we get more of a lighter rain before another round of moderate to heavy rain hits us later today. If you get hit with both rounds of the heavier rains then over 2 inches for sure and some folks over 3 by the time this all ends hopefully by later Monday.

Getting a little concern some flash flooding is going to happen today. Ground already saturated and with these rounds of moderate to heavy rain flash flooding is a greater concern than I thought yesterday

In just the past 7 days at work in Indian hill they have already received 4” . Here at home 2”. Some areas in the tristate, the soil had been saturated since the big rains of 4-7” of a few weeks ago. Much like a substantial duration drought, saturated soils create stress and damage to trees and shrubs robbing roots of precious oxygen and depending on duration, either killing roots or sustaining root rot which leads to them being susceptible to disease and insects, let alone any high winds. Just not a good situation for certain areas

1-2”+ just in the last 12 hrs for east and SE counties

Yesterday morning .8
Yesterday evening .3
At 3:55 1.3
I just love those helicopter seed pods filling up my gutters

Very wet in Milford too. Lots of standing water in people's yards.

CVG got to 62, DAY 60 and CMH 61 today.

Bad news and then some good news. Looks soggy through Monday and then the drying out period starts to take control. The models have trended further south later this week into the following week and we may get 5-7 days of drying out and warmer temps. No doubt we need this break in the action and hopefully the trend continues this week. Frankfort,Ky has been the big winner with this system and heading towards the 3 plus inch mark. So far as of yesterday CVG was at 1.69 so getting over 2 inches will not be a problem.