Ohio Valley Weather Observation & Discussion
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If it were me doing the updated Day 2 Outlook, I'd probably draw the enhanced risk up to I-70 and have a portion of the Mod risk drawn in from near Cincy down towards Central and SKY.
This is as bad as it gets, let's hope this is way overdone otherwise we will have major problems.....Agreed - and I honestly hope we can work over the atmosphere earlier in the day to prevent these parameters from being realized later in the day.tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 01, 2024 10:41 am It's going to depend on what happens with the overnight MCS that comes into our area after midnight tonight. How long does that action take to move thru tomorrow morning? How much CAPE can we get built up as a result? I think the bulk shear and helicity will be very good for big storms. We'll have to see how far north the boundary gets tomorrow that is currently stalled out just to our south.
The boundary is just wavering and probably will much of the day and then expect a bigger push northward late in the afternoon or early evening. The winds are a bit on the cool side as well this morning. Already seeing the complex getting itself together over Missouri as moisture is pulled northward. This evening expect a rather big complex west of us with many warnings and then it will head east. Timing locally looks like maybe rush hour Tuesday morning and again that 4a-9a period always a time to watch and not so much for severe storms though heavier rains can occur. How long does that complex last over the area and really talking about cloud cover on Tuesday. If the clouds stay in tact well into the afternoon that should cut down the severe risk somewhat but still with the front itself some severe weather. If we clear out earlier in the day and get several hours of heating then the severe risk will no doubt go up. Of course by this evening more of a now cast as things ramp up but the short term models will hopefully pin down some of the higher risk areas.
No doubt Mike. This is one time where we want the data to be overdone. Without question! We do not need anymore damage occurring in our forecast area that is for sure.cloudy72 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 01, 2024 10:44 amAgreed - and I honestly hope we can work over the atmosphere earlier in the day to prevent these parameters from being realized later in the day.tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 01, 2024 10:41 am It's going to depend on what happens with the overnight MCS that comes into our area after midnight tonight. How long does that action take to move thru tomorrow morning? How much CAPE can we get built up as a result? I think the bulk shear and helicity will be very good for big storms. We'll have to see how far north the boundary gets tomorrow that is currently stalled out just to our south.
I assume that the LLJ should be kicking in tonight so that should give the boundary a bump to the north. Also models have the surface low riding along the front to our NW tomorrow so if the models are correct anyway, the boundary should bump northward tonight into tomorrow.tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Apr 01, 2024 10:49 amThe boundary is just wavering and probably will much of the day and then expect a bigger push northward late in the afternoon or early evening. The winds are a bit on the cool side as well this morning. Already seeing the complex getting itself together over Missouri as moisture is pulled northward. This evening expect a rather big complex west of us with many warnings and then it will head east. Timing locally looks like maybe rush hour Tuesday morning and again that 4a-9a period always a time to watch and not so much for severe storms though heavier rains can occur. How long does that complex last over the area and really talking about cloud cover on Tuesday. If the clouds stay in tact well into the afternoon that should cut down the severe risk somewhat but still with the front itself some severe weather. If we clear out earlier in the day and get several hours of heating then the severe risk will no doubt go up. Of course by this evening more of a now cast as things ramp up but the short term models will hopefully pin down some of the higher risk areas.
So far for the year we are about 4 degrees above normal and precip wise just about average. Always nice to get rain in the spring but we don't want to see our monthly average in one system.
I saw the first map on Twitter and my first thought was that this must be an April fools joke. Unfortunately it's not. The parameters just keep climbing the closer we get to this event. I pray this turns out to be overdone.cloudy72 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 01, 2024 10:32 am 12z HRRR seems to be off it's rocker
hrrr-indiana-sig_tor-2088000.png
12z 3km NAM a tad less explosive, still yikes! Red letter day in the cards for tomorrow it seems.
nam-nest-indiana-sig_tor-2088000.png
Doug I believe what the main reason for the uptick is the main low is predicted to go further north and west and this brings in more fuel and keeps us ahead of the front several hours longer. I talked to my son yesterday and after the foot of snow they had early last week they expect more Tuesday night and Wednesday though in early April it will melt quicklydce wrote: ↑Mon Apr 01, 2024 11:06 amI saw the first map on Twitter and my first thought was that this must be an April fools joke. Unfortunately it's not. The parameters just keep climbing the closer we get to this event. I pray this turns out to be overdone.cloudy72 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 01, 2024 10:32 am 12z HRRR seems to be off it's rocker
hrrr-indiana-sig_tor-2088000.png
12z 3km NAM a tad less explosive, still yikes! Red letter day in the cards for tomorrow it seems.
nam-nest-indiana-sig_tor-2088000.png
I agree with Tim... great post Tim! With the low going NW of us, the best wind shear and helicity will be right along the path of the low and warm front... triple point. That zone could be over Eastern IN / SW Ohio or NKY. I think this is a big reason why the soundings are looking so ominous. If we see some sun and can get the CAPE to be in excess of 1000 or 1500 J/KG, then we will have some problems on our hands.tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Apr 01, 2024 11:14 amDoug I believe what the main reason for the uptick is the main low is predicted to go further north and west and this brings in more fuel and keeps us ahead of the front several hours longer. I talked to my son yesterday and after the foot of snow they had early last week they expect more Tuesday night and Wednesday though in early April it will melt quicklydce wrote: ↑Mon Apr 01, 2024 11:06 amI saw the first map on Twitter and my first thought was that this must be an April fools joke. Unfortunately it's not. The parameters just keep climbing the closer we get to this event. I pray this turns out to be overdone.cloudy72 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 01, 2024 10:32 am 12z HRRR seems to be off it's rocker
hrrr-indiana-sig_tor-2088000.png
12z 3km NAM a tad less explosive, still yikes! Red letter day in the cards for tomorrow it seems.
nam-nest-indiana-sig_tor-2088000.png
That should mean that we see storms pop over MO getting into ILL later this afternoon and evening. Then, we get the MCS later tonight into early tomorrow morning. Then, we'll have to see how the atmosphere responds for Tues afternoon and evening.tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Apr 01, 2024 11:49 am I see they extended the flood watch from central Illinois to central Indiana. I know while we are in Brown County Indiana next weekend the guys are playing Salt Creek for a round of golf. That course floods very easily and hopefully by next Sunday the course will be playable. If that does not happen I guess I will need to force myself to have a few cocktails at the Cabin. Monday the 8th is not set in stone yet so hopefully the current system or systems slows down even more and maybe we can Monday in without clouds but this time of year not easy.