Good AFD from the boys highlighting much of the same things we have been talking about on here. As Tim would say... "They have been reading our posts!"
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure off to our southwest will begin to weaken Friday
into Friday night as a broad upper level trough digs down into
the Plains. As it does, a slow moving cold front will approach
from the northwest during the day on Friday and then slowly
push into our area Friday night. This will lead to a chance for
a few showers during the day on Friday with more widespread
showers and a few thunderstorms moving in from the northwest
Friday night. We will have one more mild day on Friday with
daytime highs in the low to mid 70s. With some cooler air
beginning to advect in from the northwest behind the front, lows
Friday night will range from the lower 50s in the northwest to
the lower 60s in the southeast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The country will be split between an expansive area of high pressure
over the Gulf of Mexico/Florida and a longwave, positively tilted,
troughing pattern over the northwestern US. A 700H shortwave will be
moving through the larger flow pattern, located near the Hudson Bay,
at the start of the period dragging a surface low along with it. The
associated cold front stretches all the way from Quebec down through
the Mid Atlantic and into Ark-LA-TX area.
The cold front is forecast to stall out near or through our CWA,
orientated from southwest toward northeast.. meaning we`re likely
going to be eating the temperature gradient. Highs on Saturday in
the northwest only reach the upper 50s, while highs in our southeast
climb to the low 70s. Typically, a stalled out front would bring us
repeated rounds of rainfall, however, larger forcing with this
particular boundary is marginal during daytime hours Saturday,
despite PWATs near the 90th percentile. Therefore, only went with
chance PoPs during the daytime hours.
Better forcing arrives Saturday overnight into Sunday as another
small impulse in the larger flow works its way northeast and helps
nudge the larger system east. Have highest precip probabilities
during the overnight time frame and through Sunday and repeated
rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall seem more likely during this
timeframe, although, exact locations are still TBD based on where
the boundary moves through.
After this impulse and cold front move east out of the area,
precipitation chances decrease through Monday. We`ll feel a
noticeable change in temperatures as deep and prolonged cold air
advection moves into the region. Highs on Monday reach the mid 40s
and overnight lows into Tuesday drop into the upper 20s- resulting
in our first hard freeze of the season. Similarly, Tuesday and
Wednesday highs only reach the low to mid 40s with overnight lows
continuing to fall into the 20s.
Wrap around moisture and continued cyclonic flow will allow for
periods of light showers during the first half of the work week and
our northern counties may see the first wet flakes of the year. We
dry out during the second half of the week as weak ridging moves
into place. Temperatures continue to be around 10F below