Absolute Vorticity

Good Morning and so this is what snow looks like on the ground. Looks like a good 1 1/2 inches and still coming down. Several more hours of snow so the higher end locally will work out just fine. I can see the folks around I-70 will have a bust on the low end. Love the snow not so much the next round of cold but this time there is hope in sight for a nice warm up next week though with warmer air this time of year usually brings in rainfall and that looks to be the case. Rain falling on top of frozen ground at first will cause plenty of standing water but by mid-week the snow should be melted. Looks like an extended period of milder weather and hopefully the cold air once again reloads for a nice February.

Yeah... I agree guys. I busted also for I-70 Crew. The rest of the area, the forecast is going to work out just fine. MY local roads around home, KY 18 and Camp Ernst weren't bad. They had been recently plowed and salted. Once I hit the interstates it was down hill from there. 75 and 71 were snow covered and slippery. I couldn't see the lines in a lot of places. Saw a few spin out's and one decent wreck involving 2 cars. If it weren't for the light traffic for the time of day that I drive into work, I would have called off and never attempted it. White knuckle driving at its finest. Just glad I made it in one piece.

Radar looks nice with some good returns from Cincy to the SW esp down towards LOU. I could see another inch or 2 falling in that zone before all is said and done. I'll have some shoveling to do this evening after work for sure.

As of 6am, 24 degrees at CVG as temps begin to drop so snow ratios will be increasing as the back end of the snow shield swings thru. Total QPF at CVG so far as of 6am is 0.14"

Latest thinking from the boys.... it could be interesting tonight in some areas as well.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

While falling steadily, snow has been hard to accumulate in some
spots with small snow flakes. Other areas where there have been
some better embedded bands the snowflakes have been larger and
there has been more accumulation. Overall have forecast
generally 2 to 3 inches of snow with locally higher amounts
around 3 inches for the event.

Widespread snow will become more scattered snow showers later in
the day. Temperatures will struggle to rise today as colder air
works into the region and expect falling temperatures this
afternoon. Winds will pick up today with some wind gusts around
20 to 30 mph. Continued the winter weather advisory for
accumulating snow and impacts to travel conditions.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

Another disturbance works into the area tonight along with
favorable winds off of the lake. Models continue to key in on
this feature with having a band of snow develop across the area
and will have to watch for some locally heavy snow that could
really enhance snowfall values. There are slight variations in
strength and location of this band. Went with some higher
precipitation chances going into tonight to account for this
feature. Additional scattered snow showers will continue into
Saturday.

Continued the winter weather advisory that goes into tonight.
Cannot rule out that it might need to be expanded in time based
on where that band of snow develops.

Many locations will drop down into the single digits tonight.
The combination of cold temperatures and wind will allow for
wind chill values near the -10 criteria in some spots. After
coordination with surrounding offices, went with a wind chill
advisory for locations where there was a higher probability of
dropping down to -10F wind chill. Continued cold airmass in
place for Saturday with high temperatures only in the teens to
lower 20s. Winds will also gust at times on Saturday as well.

Looks like some of the heaviest totals may ironically be south/sw of the metro where the screw zone was indicated by models!

Trevor wrote: ↑Fri Jan 19, 2024 6:08 am Looks like some of the heaviest totals may ironically be south/sw of the metro where the screw zone was indicated by models!

No doubt Trev... no doubt! Should be some 4" totals coming out of there.

Hi-res guidance is interesting for tonight with LES snow bands coming off of Lake Mich. Could be some nice bands for Central Ohio per some of the models.

Just got to cvg. Interstate was a disaster north until Kenwood on down south.

Have a solid two inches at work downtown! What a great event! 36 hours ago I was going to be happy with an inch of snow

Winter Storm Update
[Fri 1/19/24 6:30AM]

Bands of moderate to heavy snow have developed much further south than models had indicated. These bands will miss the Cincinnati metro to the south but will affect folks across the river in parts of Northern Kentucky. Lighter to occasionally steadier snows will remain for the rest of us for a couple to few more hours.

In areas that have a snow pack, we should be able to go below zero Sun morning under clear skies. ILN has me at 0 to 5 below for Sun morning. I checked snowfall reports that have come into ILN and so far for the Cincy Tri-state.... 1-2" seems to be a common occurrence. 2-3" looks like where a lot of us down here will end up. Isolated 4" amounts in our far S counties and SE certainly achievable.

I checked my house cam and the grass is all covered now as a steady snow continues. Going to est 2" IMBY at this point.

Measure ed again, looked like more , but after measuring standing at 1.75” . I should end up close to 2” , about what I was expecting for MBY. Those super fine flakes take a while to accumulate

75 N was a train wreck.....

Saw 4 accidents happen on a 5 mile stretch from 74 to Sharonville.

Stay safe yall!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 19, 2024 7:08 am Measure ed again, looked like more , but after measuring standing at 1.75” . I should end up close to 2” , about what I was expecting for MBY. Those super fine flakes take a while to accumulate

Yeah a sub-par DGZ didn't help matters...

Had to go grocery shopping this morning which normally takes 2 minutes at best and today 2 minutes as well. Got in store at 6a and out by 7am and a good 3/4 of an inch. Total a tad over 2 inches so far and probably will end up with 2.5-3 inches. No doubt we will get below zero Sunday morning and I can see -4 - -8. See what happens with the snow off the lakes tonight and see exactly where the bands set up. Good thing is I have an eye appointment at 840 so get to travel once again. Of course the eye doctor is in Edgewood and I no longer live there lol.

As of 7am, total QPF at CVG is 0.16" Storm totals as of 7am from our big 3 climate sites.

CMH - 1.2"
DAY - 1.1"
CVG - 2.2"

At CVG, the avg snow ratio is 15:1.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 19, 2024 7:22 am As of 7am, total QPF at CVG is 0.16" Storm totals as of 7am from our big 3 climate sites.

CMH - 1.2"
DAY - 1.1"
CVG - 2.2"

At CVG, the avg snow ratio is 15:1.

Nice that's exactly what I thought the ratio would average. Good stuff...

ILN mentions the crappy flake production as well...

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
While falling steadily, snow has been hard to accumulate in some
spots with small snow flakes. Other areas where there have been
some better embedded bands the snowflakes have been larger and
there has been more accumulation. Overall have forecast
generally 2 to 3 inches of snow with locally higher amounts
around 3 inches for the event.

Trevor wrote: ↑Fri Jan 19, 2024 7:23 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 19, 2024 7:22 am As of 7am, total QPF at CVG is 0.16" Storm totals as of 7am from our big 3 climate sites.

CMH - 1.2"
DAY - 1.1"
CVG - 2.2"

At CVG, the avg snow ratio is 15:1.

Nice that's exactly what I thought the ratio would average. Good stuff...

Yes Sir! It sucks that we busted for our I-70 Crew, but for the rest of the area, everything worked out nicely.

SPC Meso page this morning shows a 1008 MB low over Western VA which is transferring its energy now to a 1005 MB low off the NC Outer Banks. NW flow in our area will continue to cause temps to fall as the day wears on. The steadier snow later this morning will taper down to snow showers. We will need to watch the lake bands off of Lake Michigan later today, tonight and into early Saturday with continued NW Flow and CAA.

Frigid Sunday Morning Expected
[Fri 1/19/24 7:30AM]

Very cold morning lows are expected Sunday morning area wide. Calm winds, clearing skies, and snowpack on the ground will allow temperatures to take quite a plunge. This kind of cold can freeze pipes so take precautions before going to bed Saturday night.
One piece of positive news about this -- winds will be calm so the wind chill factor will not be an issue. Don't get me wrong, it will still feel absolutely brutal outside, but it could be worse!

2” on the ground here so far. Even the main roads on the Westside are rough.

Drive home from work at 7:00 was fine, just take your time.

Glad all the schools are closed and most of the colleges and universities are closed until late morning.