Potential Weekend Snow Jan 7-8th, 2023

[tron777]

An early peak at the 18Z GFS and it looks like it will continue the slower, more northern, and thus a warmer solution. Those are the two model camps pretty much. A weaker southern slider that brings in WAA snows on Sat then rain on Sunday with part 2. Both pieces are separate. Or the other models showing the slower and stronger solution. Place your bets Ladies and Gents!

[tpweather]

An early peak at the 18Z GFS and it looks like it will continue the slower, more northern, and thus a warmer solution. Those are the two model camps pretty much. A weaker southern slider that brings in WAA snows on Sat then rain on Sunday with part 2. Both pieces are separate. Or the other models showing the slower and stronger solution. Place your bets Ladies and Gents!

Great Post Les and I agree that either solution could work or something in the middle of both as we know how that works quite often. I still believe once we get into Thursdays afternoon runs the models should come together and then I may place a bet

[tron777]

An early peak at the 18Z GFS and it looks like it will continue the slower, more northern, and thus a warmer solution. Those are the two model camps pretty much. A weaker southern slider that brings in WAA snows on Sat then rain on Sunday with part 2. Both pieces are separate. Or the other models showing the slower and stronger solution. Place your bets Ladies and Gents!

Great Post Les and I agree that either solution could work or something in the middle of both as we know how that works quite often. I still believe once we get into Thursdays afternoon runs the models should come together and then I may place a bet

Hopefully we will see some kind of agreement tonight or tomorrow. I hope to be able to forecast snow instead of rain. 50/50 right now as it stands.

[tron777]

18Z Euro shifted way south / weaker on this run vs 12Z. At 90 hours which is where the 18Z run stops, the low was over S TN. 12Z run had it near Evansville. We shall see... still way to soon for me to make a call either way.

[tpweather]

18Z Euro shifted way south / weaker on this run vs 12Z. At 90 hours which is where the 18Z run stops, the low was over S TN. 12Z run had it near Evansville. We shall see... still way to soon for me to make a call either way.

Hey Les and believe models are not sure exactly where the energy is going to be and I agree with these smaller systems. The one thing I have noticed is they seem to be slowing down whatever system takes place.

[tron777]

18Z Euro shifted way south / weaker on this run vs 12Z. At 90 hours which is where the 18Z run stops, the low was over S TN. 12Z run had it near Evansville. We shall see... still way to soon for me to make a call either way.

Hey Les and believe models are not sure exactly where the energy is going to be and I agree with these smaller systems. The one thing I have noticed is they seem to be slowing down whatever system takes place.

Yeah... even the Euro is slower. The only models now that have a faster solution with those WAA snows was the 12Z and 18Z RGEM and the 18Z NAM. The trend is for slower, but does the low still cut like the GFS or can we get it further south like the Euro? I compared the 18Z Euro to the 18Z GFS and one of the biggest differences I see is that the Euro was much further south with that Eastern Canada high. 18Z Euro had it over Upstate NY. 18Z GFS had it near Montreal. A big difference on where that high is located with regards to storm track.

[tpweather]

18Z Euro shifted way south / weaker on this run vs 12Z. At 90 hours which is where the 18Z run stops, the low was over S TN. 12Z run had it near Evansville. We shall see... still way to soon for me to make a call either way.

Hey Les and believe models are not sure exactly where the energy is going to be and I agree with these smaller systems. The one thing I have noticed is they seem to be slowing down whatever system takes place.

Yeah... even the Euro is slower. The only models now that have a faster solution with those WAA snows was the 12Z and 18Z RGEM and the 18Z NAM. The trend is for slower, but does the low still cut like the GFS or can we get it further south like the Euro? I compared the 18Z Euro to the 18Z GFS and one of the biggest differences I see is that the Euro was much further south with that Eastern Canada high. 18Z Euro had it over Upstate NY. 18Z GFS had it near Montreal. A big difference on where that high is located with regards to storm track.

I agree Les and I have been touting that high for several days on where and how strong it would be by this weekend.

[tron777]

I agree Les and I have been touting that high for several days on where and how strong it would be by this weekend.

Absolutely! We certainly need it to be in the 1030s MB range for strength and we also need it to be over S Ontario or Upstate NY instead of further East in Quebec.

[tpweather]

I agree Les and I have been touting that high for several days on where and how strong it would be by this weekend.

Absolutely! We certainly need it to be in the 1030s MB range for strength and we also need it to be over S Ontario or Upstate NY instead of further East in Quebec.

Later next week the Euro showed I believe a 1044 strong high to our northeast and again when the coldest or air heads to eastern Canada you get these stronger highs that expand and move south and west. Then if we can get a system to the south that pumps up some moist air you can get that nice overriding event. To early for that kind of forecast but I really like what I see plus there is some riding in the southwest that could keep systems next week from going into the west coast but up and over Alaska and then come down through central and eastern Canada

[tron777]

I agree Les and I have been touting that high for several days on where and how strong it would be by this weekend.

Absolutely! We certainly need it to be in the 1030s MB range for strength and we also need it to be over S Ontario or Upstate NY instead of further East in Quebec.

Later next week the Euro showed I believe a 1044 strong high to our northeast and again when the coldest or air heads to eastern Canada you get these stronger highs that expand and move south and west. Then if we can get a system to the south that pumps up some moist air you can get that nice overriding event. To early for that kind of forecast but I really like what I see plus there is some riding in the southwest that could keep systems next week from going into the west coast but up and over Alaska and then come down through central and eastern Canada

I noticed that also for the mid month set up. Hope we continue to see more of that showing up on future modeling. We haven't had a good overrunning event in a while. In terms of this weekend's set up, I also believe some overrunning is possible. Been thinking that for the last couple of days, even before I created this thread.

[tron777]

So after looking at the overnight guidance, some good news in that the weak cutter solution is gone on all models. NAM, RGEM, and CMC continue to hit the snow the hardest with that WAA snow on Sat, esp in the morning while enough cold air is still around. GFS, UKIE, and Euro are weaker and south but they are also slower at developing the system and bringing in the moisture so it is mainly a rain event for late Sat and Sun. So the key is timing like usual for this system. The quicker it comes in the better for snow lovers. If we see the slower solution take place, it'll mainly be rain. So that is where we stand as of this morning.

[tron777]

12Z NAM continues the weak / south theme but very little in the way of precip. 12Z RGEM is a little weaker / south and thus less QPF as well. High is stronger so the cold air is a bit better on this run, but the lack of moisture is the issue. A fine line we walk with this system. Too weak and very little precip falls. Too strong and it's a rain maker. So far, the stronger solutions have dropped off and we are seeing weaker solutions last night and even weaker still today. Hope that this thread isn't all for nothing! All joking aside, since there isn't much else to watch, I will continue to track this system anyway. This is a weather forum so it's what we do.

[tron777]

12Z GFS is still not buying the WAA snow for Sat morning. Some slight hints at precip over Northern or North Central KY but very brief. Main system still is delayed and doesn't come thru until Sunday so some rain showers maybe ending as a few flakes is basically what the model is showing on this run.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and I believe models are just having a very hard time in figuring out which if any of the pieces of energy will blow up a little stronger. Les and myself have been promoting a system in the 7th-10th time period and no doubt we are seeing tiny pieces of energy that cross the country from the pacific but none of them are very strong. My hope was by this afternoon the models are getting somewhat of a handle on which piece of energy takes over or do we just end up with these tiny pieces of energy that just sort of float around and spit out sprinkles and flurries. I still believe a stronger piece will emerge but exactly where and when this happens is not easy to forecast.

[tron777]

Great post Tim... sometimes these little systems can throw out a curve ball that the modeling just doesn't see until 24 to 36 hours out. Sometimes, the models are correct and we see no surprises at all and it's just a few flurries and some light rain, etc etc and not a big deal. Whatever happens, the snow will be gone by Sunday anyway as most folks know. The key for us to get that WAA snow Sat morning is for a quicker approach and a little more strength with the energy for a little overrunning to occur. That's basically it...

[tron777]

12Z CMC is weaker / south over North Central KY with the WAA snow early Sat. Then we get clipped with light rain on Sunday and not a big deal at all.

[tron777]

12Z Euro wasn't much to write home about. A few snow / rain showers on Sunday morning.

[tpweather]

Les the closer we get to this weekend the models are just not seeing anything major forming. One reason is there is not a big temp battle going on as most folks in the eastern half of the country this weekend will be very close to normal. Sure a few snow showers and rain showers here and there. Until this morning I thought we may get two pieces to combined but not looking good. Even if we were to get any snow its mainly on the grass and roofs and by mid-day my guess it would switch over to a cold rain. Even though I had hope for a small system those chances are getting slimmer and slimmer each minute.

[tron777]

Les the closer we get to this weekend the models are just not seeing anything major forming. One reason is there is not a big temp battle going on as most folks in the eastern half of the country this weekend will be very close to normal. Sure a few snow showers and rain showers here and there. Until this morning I thought we may get two pieces to combined but not looking good. Even if we were to get any snow its mainly on the grass and roofs and by mid-day my guess it would switch over to a cold rain. Even though I had hope for a small system those chances are getting slimmer and slimmer each minute.

The chance is slim for sure. Best case scenario is for that little thumping of snow Sat then it's gone regardless. If we don't see that happen then some light snow / rain and whooptey-do!

[tron777]

18Z NAM is showing that little stripe of snow Sat morning but it's just a bit south of us just like the 12Z run.

[tron777]

The boys latest thinking:

A brief period of weak isentropic lift will bring a low chance of
rain and/or snow to our southern CWFA on Saturday. Otherwise, there
should be some decrease in cloud cover through the day. Highs will
range from the upper 30s to the lower 40s.

Mid level energy is still expected to move across the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley Sunday into Sunday night. This energy will be
associated with a weak wave of surface low pressure that is forecast
to move along or south of the Ohio River. A chance of rain/snow in
the morning Sunday will be followed by a chance of rain in the
afternoon as surface temperatures warm into the 40s. As the system
exits Sunday night, a little bit of snow may mix in before pcpn
ends. Minimal impacts are expected. Lows will fall into the mid 20s
to the lower 30s.

[tron777]

18Z RGEM has bailed completely now on the WAA snow for Sat. Some light rain on Sun ending as a few flakes with that second low is all we've got per this model.

[tron777]

18Z GFS continues with the disjointed mess theme with dry conditions Sat and light rain ending as some flakes for Sunday.

[tron777]

A little more QPF from the 18Z Euro for early Sun morning. About 0.15" at CVG. Borderline profiles for rain vs snow. I would suspect that if the precip intensity is light, rain. If it's heavy enough, snow would be possible.

[tron777]

Good morning! It now appears that Sat will be dry. Later Sat night and esp Sunday morning is when the moisture moves in. Some light snow, light freezing rain is possible before we go above freezing and everything that remains falls as rain. We may end as a few flakes Sun evening. That is about what we are looking at now with this system. Could be a slick spot or two Sun morning if temps are cold enough and if enough moisture is realized. This is something to watch if you have to be out early Sunday.