April Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Think the NAM has been leading the way for Saturday staying mostly dry during daylight hours , especially for areas south of 71.

No doubt! So far, great news for some of the area with regard to weekend plans.

[tron777]

12Z GFS continues to keep most of the action NW of Cincy.

[tron777]

12Z Euro has a touch Sat and Sun mornings but overall not too shabby or disruptive this weekend at all.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG / DAY / CMH all got to 65 today.

[Bgoney]

A much needed break from the heaviest rains for most of AVLAND through the weekend. With tomorrow’s warmth , very low DPs and gusty winds the farmers will appreciate the rapid drying it will bring and fully expect them to be pulling all nighters through the weekend ,out this way .

[tron777]

I think I'll mow again tomorrow after work. I like not having to do it on the weekend if I can help it. I like a Thurs or Fri weekly mowing kind of schedule.

[tron777]

Just a Trace of rain was recorded last night as the warm front passed thru. Low 60s this morning. The sun will come out, the wind will crank up, and temps will soar to around 80 this afternoon. My forecast is going to be rain is likely near or just NW of the River on Sat. Dry for most of us on Easter Sunday. Rain and storms for everyone Sun night into Monday. Rainfall amounts are going to be a 1/2" or so for the River counties. 0.50 to 1" in our NW. 0.25" or less in our SE.

[tron777]

[Bgoney]

NAM totals through the weekend

IMG_3489.jpeg

[tron777]

Looks good to me! We should be able to get the Easter Egg Hunt in late Sat afternoon IMBY.

[tron777]

12Z GFS lingers the boundary over the Tri-state a little too long for my liking. Still some model disagreement. Hoping NAM is right and my forecast is more based on it.

[tron777]

CVG gusted to 39 mph in the last 30 mins. 76 degrees dew of 53. Euro gets close Sat evening and again Easter morning but otherwise most folks are dry. Id have to say, taking a blend of the guidance... I'd go with highest chances., early and late day both days with a dry middle period in between. Some folks will get a half inch plus of rain thru the weekend, others nothing. The front will waiver back and forth across the area. All areas Sun night with the cold front have a shot for rain.

[tron777]

81 / 54 with a peak gust of 39 at CVG this far today.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 80, DAY 82 and CMH 83 on Good Fri.

[MVWxObserver]

0847 UNK Indiana State University Vigo IN 3946 8741 Thunderstorm winds downed tree branches onto a house in Terre Haute. Time estimated from radar. (IND)

0849 63 4 ESE Terre Haute Vigo IN 3944 8732 Thunderstorm wind gust at KHUF Terre Haute. (IND)

0856 UNK 1 W Brazil Clay IN 3952 8714 Thunderstorm winds damaged trees on west side of Brazil. Time estimated by radar. (IND)

0856 UNK Knightsville Clay IN 3953 8709 Thunderstorm winds downed trees at US Highway 40 and County Road 100 East causing minor structural damage to a 3 car garage. Time estimated by radar. (IND)

0909 UNK 3 E Putnamville Putnam IN 3958 8681 Several pictures from Putnam County of trees downed by thunderstorm winds onto cars. Time estimated by radar. (IND)

0915 59 1 ESE Greencastle Putnam IN 3963 8681 Thunderstorm wind gust at KGPC Greencastle. (IND)

0928 UNK 2 S Brownsburg Hendricks IN 3982 8640 Thunderstorm winds downed several large trees on the south side of Brownsburg including at the intersection of Thornburg Pkwy and Indiana Route 267. Time estimated by radar. (IND)

0930 60 3 E Avon Hendricks IN 3976 8634 Ronald Reagan Pkwy and US Highway 36. (IND)

0933 67 1 ENE Indianapolis Int'l Airport Marion IN 3973 8628 Thunderstorm wind gust at KIND Indianapolis. (IND)

0934 UNK 2 WSW Wynnedale Marion IN 3983 8623 Thunderstorm winds uprooted a tree at 38th Street and Guion Road. Time estimated by radar. (IND)

0952 UNK 3 E Noblesville Hamilton IN 4005 8597 Thunderstorm winds downed trees just east of Noblesville. Time estimated by radar. (IND)

0956 UNK 3 NNE Pendleton Madison IN 4004 8572 Interstate 69 was closed at MM 222 due to thunderstorm winds downing lines onto roadway. Time estimated by radar. (IND)

1011 UNK Muncie Delaware IN 4020 8539 Thunderstorm winds uprooted a tree into a house. Time estimated by radar. (IND)

1018 UNK 1 S Albany Delaware IN 4028 8524 Thunderstorm winds downed trees and or power lines south of Albany. Time estimated by radar. (IND)

1037 UNK Bowerstown Huntington IN 4089 8544 A barn had its siding blown off and blown into the field nearby. The structure underneath still appears intact. Mesonet and other stations nearby indicate 45 to 55 mph winds. (IWX)

1055 UNK New Bremen Auglaize OH 4044 8439 Roof shingles blown off building. Time estimated from radar data. (ILN)

1059 63 1 E New Knoxville Auglaize OH 4049 8430 (ILN)

1101 61 New Bremen Auglaize OH 4044 8438 Measured on a private weather station. (ILN)

1115 58 2 WNW Westminster Allen OH 4071 8402 AWOS station KAOH Lima ... OH. (IWX)

1116 UNK 1 N Ada Hardin OH 4078 8382 A couple of trees down in Ada. Time estimated from radar. (ILN)

1132 UNK Pendleton Madison IN 4000 8574 Thunderstorm winds downed multiple power lines across southern Madison County and in Anderson. Time estimated by radar. (IND)

1138 61 2 SW Findlay Hancock OH 4102 8367 ASOS station KFDY Findlay. (CLE)

1144 UNK Upper Sandusky Wyandot OH 4083 8328 A large tree was blown down in Upper Sandusky. (CLE)

1145 UNK 3 SSE La Rue Marion OH 4054 8335 Corrects previous tstm wnd dmg report from 3 SSE La Rue. Several power lines blown down around Bowling Green Township ... corrected time estimate. (CLE)

1152 UNK 2 SE New Riegel Seneca OH 4103 8330 Tree with some poles down on CR 6 near State Route 587. Time estimated via radar. (CLE)

1420 UNK 3 WSW Quincy Logan OH 4028 8401 Significant garage and outbuilding damage near 5200 block of County Road 4. Time estimated. (ILN)

1541 UNK 1 N Loudonville Ashland OH 4065 8223 Delayed report ... tall tree with 6 foot diameter trunk fell on power line. (CLE)

1600 UNK Fredericksburg Wayne OH 4068 8187 Several trees and power lines were blown down in Fredericksburg. (CLE)

2039 UNK 3 ENE Alexandria Campbell KY 3898 8433 Tree snapped. (ILN)

2045 UNK 3 ENE Alexandria Campbell KY 3898 8432 3 inch limbs broken. (ILN)

2050 UNK 2 S Batavia Clermont OH 3905 8418 Tree down on car and power lines. (ILN)

2136 UNK Seaman Adams OH 3894 8357 One tree down. (ILN)

2144 UNK 3 NW Pike Lake Pike OH 3917 8322 Several trees down. (ILN)

2154 UNK 5 S Chillicothe Ross OH 3925 8298 Trees uprooted. (ILN)

2154 UNK 6 S Chillicothe Ross OH 3929 8298 Multiple large trees uprooted and some shingle damage reported. (ILN)

2156 UNK 3 SSE Chillicothe Ross OH 3929 8296 Trees down throughout the county. Time and location estimated. (ILN)

2207 125 2 N Waverly Pike OH 3916 8298 mping. (ILN)

2315 72 Belpre Washington OH 3928 8159 Multiple trees down in the area. (RLX)

[MVWxObserver]

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[tron777]

Good morning! So far, the storms have stayed to our west. The whole area is weakening as it heads our way. This was expected. What the unknown is... How much will it remain intact? When does it arrive? NAM continues to keep most dry while the new HRRR run has us getting clipped about noon-1pm then another batch of strong storms around 5pm or so. Still some model uncertainty today. Keep an eye on the radar just in case is about all you can do. Plan your outdoors thing and have an indoor back up plan just in case. Just one of those set up's where a few areas will get rained on and the majority of us shouldn't IMO. We will need to continue watching the rate at which the thing weakens.

[tron777]

12Z NAM keeps us dry until about 7 or 8pm tonight.

[tron777]

SPC did bump us up to a slight risk for this afternoon and evening. Mainly for damaging wind:

day1otlk_1300.gif

[tron777]

A couple of cells have clipped the area, missing me to the NW so far. The boys had this to say:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
The main focus for the near term period is going to be the
expectation for scattered showers/storms to move through the region
through early evening. There is plenty of impressive deep-layer
shear to work with, as well as some relatively steep ML lapse rates,
suggesting that ongoing convection in the area, as well as upstream
across IL/IN, should continue to maintain structure and strength as
it moves swiftly to the NE amidst a slowly-destabilizing
environment. Any N-S oriented or bowing line segment is going to
bring with it the elevated potential for strong to damaging wind
gusts, especially into early/mid afternoon as the BL destabilizes and
the LL thermodynamic environment ripens.

The limiting factor to a more widespread severe threat is going to be
the propensity for the clustering of storms to continue to shunt the
outflow boundary (stable air) a bit further to the SE progressively
with time. This should slowly create a "worked over" environment for
many spots near/N of I-71 by midday, with the only "pristine" LL
environment still lingering in parts of N KY into far south-central
OH into late afternoon/early evening. So with this in mind, the best
severe potential should gradually shift to the SE through the
afternoon hours, maximizing near the I-71 corridor early to mid
afternoon, before focusing across the SE third of the local area into
early evening. With strong deep- layer shear and the presence of
good ML lapse rates, both damaging winds and large hail will be
possible with the strongest storms.

With the front draped across the region, we will end up with a
decent temperature gradient across our area today with afternoon
highs ranging from the mid 60s northwest to the lower 80s in our far
southeast.

[Bgoney]

Finally dried off enough from our rainy stretch to mow here, second time of spring. Pretty nice day with brief off and on sunshine. Winds have died down also

[tron777]

Looking like NKY could get hit in that 5-6 pm window per some modeling and future simulated radar data. We shall see...

[MVWxObserver]

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[tron777]

Raining here now. We had to move the Easter Egg Hunt indoors this year. It will be posted on my YouTube channel later this evening.

[tpweather]

I see the outflow from this morning no doubt has no doubt ignited and hit the area. I thought it would be further west but we still have enough of some colder air to fight and keep the front a tad further south than I expected. Getting a nice thundershower and a little training so easily can get near a 1/2 inch with this round especially over northern Kentucky. Again not a widespread and many folks will see little if any. Love listening to thundershowers and some of the nice breezes you get with them