Absolute Vorticity

Ok... screw it! Let's ride the ICON.

18Z GFS isn’t bad either

I’ll take the GFS

18Z GFS QPF - Decent for all minus CVG of course.

CVG - 0.14"
HAO - 0.20"
MGY - 0.24"
DAY - 0.29"
CMH - 0.25"
FGX - 0.22"

This is at a 10:1 Ratio but you can clearly see the CVG Screw Zone on the 18Z GEFS Members - Sigh....

I guess having a surprise overachiever is out of the question!

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 5:46 pm I guess having a surprise overachiever is out of the question!

That's why they're overachievers. No one knows it's coming.

18Z Euro QPF - Similar to the 18Z OP GFS.

CVG - 0.13"
HAO - 0.18"
MGY - 0.24"
DAY - 0.26"
CMH - 0.29"
FGX - 0.23"

dce wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 7:02 pm

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 5:46 pm I guess having a surprise overachiever is out of the question!

That's why they're overachievers. No one knows it's coming.

For us down here in No Man's Land, we have to avoid the dry slot or there will be no overachieving. Outside of the Cincy Metro... the rest of you have a good shot at 2-3" maybe isolated 4" if the gods are smiling. Even Matt gets more QPF then CVG does lol

SPC Meso Analysis this evening shows a 1002 MB low over the N Texas Panhandle and the main low at 1002 MB along the N Idaho / MT border. Radar has scattered snow showers over the Plains from Neb into Iowa and this should be the beginnings of the frontogenic / WAA snow to our north that the models were showing developing later tonight into tomorrow. Snow from the main system is still back over the N Rockies. Nothing on radar yet with regards to moisture return from the Gulf but that should begin at some point tomorrow ahead of that TX Panhandle low.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 7:14 pm

dce wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 7:02 pm

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 5:46 pm I guess having a surprise overachiever is out of the question!

That's why they're overachievers. No one knows it's coming.

For us down here in No Man's Land, we have to avoid the dry slot or there will be no overachieving. Outside of the Cincy Metro... the rest of you have a good shot at 2-3" maybe isolated 4" if the gods are smiling. Even Matt gets more QPF then CVG does lol

Hopefully the NAM will change it's tune in a couple hours. Seems to be the Nam and Sref against the globals. Still a couple more runs to watch. As you already know, this will definitely be a nowcast.

dce wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 7:30 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 7:14 pm

dce wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 7:02 pm

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 5:46 pm I guess having a surprise overachiever is out of the question!

That's why they're overachievers. No one knows it's coming.

For us down here in No Man's Land, we have to avoid the dry slot or there will be no overachieving. Outside of the Cincy Metro... the rest of you have a good shot at 2-3" maybe isolated 4" if the gods are smiling. Even Matt gets more QPF then CVG does lol

Hopefully the NAM will change it's tune in a couple hours. Seems to be the Nam and Sref against the globals. Still a couple more runs to watch. As you already know, this will definitely be a nowcast.

It's always a nowcast it seems like anymore Doug lol But I've made my final call and I am going to stick with it. If the dry slot avoids us down here, we can do 2" instead of my forecast of 1". As long as it doesn't impact you guys to the north, the 1-3" call looks good esp on the higher end of that range. It would not surprise me to see an isolated 4" amount especially North of I-70 like where Eric is.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 7:34 pm

dce wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 7:30 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 7:14 pm

dce wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 7:02 pm

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 5:46 pm I guess having a surprise overachiever is out of the question!

That's why they're overachievers. No one knows it's coming.

For us down here in No Man's Land, we have to avoid the dry slot or there will be no overachieving. Outside of the Cincy Metro... the rest of you have a good shot at 2-3" maybe isolated 4" if the gods are smiling. Even Matt gets more QPF then CVG does lol

Hopefully the NAM will change it's tune in a couple hours. Seems to be the Nam and Sref against the globals. Still a couple more runs to watch. As you already know, this will definitely be a nowcast.

It's always a nowcast it seems like anymore Doug lol But I've made my final call and I am going to stick with it. If the dry slot avoids us down here, we can do 2" instead of my forecast of 1". As long as it doesn't impact you guys to the north, the 1-3" call looks good esp on the higher end of that range. It would not surprise me to see an isolated 4" amount especially North of I-70 like where Eric is.

I like your call. It is the most likely outcome. I will change it up and go all or nothing. We either overachieve or underachieve. That is my forecast. Either the dry slot hits and it's less than an inch. Or the models can't get a grip on this and CVG land gets 3 inches. Nothing in between. I'll let it ride. Lol!

dce wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 7:49 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 7:34 pm It's always a nowcast it seems like anymore Doug lol But I've made my final call and I am going to stick with it. If the dry slot avoids us down here, we can do 2" instead of my forecast of 1". As long as it doesn't impact you guys to the north, the 1-3" call looks good esp on the higher end of that range. It would not surprise me to see an isolated 4" amount especially North of I-70 like where Eric is.

I like your call. It is the most likely outcome. I will change it up and go all or nothing. We either overachieve or underachieve. That is my forecast. Either the dry slot hits and it's less than an inch. Or the models can't get a grip on this and CVG land gets 3 inches. Nothing in between. I'll let it ride. Lol!

We will review more data overnight and tomorrow as the system starts to evolve. Good luck with your call. I am rooting for that 3" mark LOL

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 5:12 pm This is at a 10:1 Ratio but you can clearly see the CVG Screw Zone on the 18Z GEFS Members - Sigh....


18Z GEFS.png

This winter is getting to the point of being comical now

It looks to me like the Nam and the HRRR keep the low stronger as it moves into Kentucky and West Virginia. The global models transfer the energy to the coast quicker and therefore the low is much weaker as it heads up into Kentucky and West Virginia. If we don't want dry slotted we need the global models to be correct.

Edit: The stronger low also keeps the secondary wave that is dropping down out of the Plains farther to the north creating the dry slot in our area. The weaker low solutions from the globals allow the secondary wave to come further south so that we don't get dry slotted.

0z NAM dry slots us and I-70, for a whopping 0.4” of snow!

00z Canadian juiced things back up and supports a 3-4” snow across the tri-state…

It’s wise as a forecaster to stay in the lower end of guidance in this setup (I have 1-2” for Cincy) but there is definitely potential for overachieving if some of the wetter guidance is correct.

00z Euro is in and essentially doubles our QPF versus the 12z run. The 18z run was a step in the wetter direction and the 00z continued…

Canadian and Euro both have marked QPF increases. I have a suspicion that we may be on track for higher snowfall locally. Let’s see if the NAM follows suit.

If 06z overall continues with higher QPF totals then I will be increasing my snowfall forecast in my morning update.

winter weather advisory 1-4" posted here

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 2:01 am winter weather advisory 1-4" posted here

Nice! Our WFO will be issuing one tonight or tomorrow morning.

Also of note: while the NAM is the driest model, it did close the gap on the dryslot a bit more from 18z to 00z.

12z NAM vs 00z NAM. Obviously not as wet as the other models but a marked improvement for sure. I think we can start giving these wetter runs a bit more legitimacy…

HRRR is in the drier camp. Screw zone for metro.