Absolute Vorticity

That risk keeps getting pushed eastwards, now right up to the IN/OH border. been raining all day with an occasional clap of the under.

54 / 54 here. Very light rain persisting. Does more keep developing or do we finally get a couple of hours to do something? Visible satellite is not impressive looking to me IMO. I stick by my isolated severe call. Warnings still possible for sure, Western counties. That has really always been the thinking. I respect the SPC, but the parameters need to improve over the next few hours or this post to me is good. Storms won't arrive until this evening anyway so I'd say you've got until 6pm for things to improve, if they're going to.

See that a severe thunderstorm warning southeast of Terra Haute in Illinois has been issued. These storms are forming and moving very quickly but they tend to ramp up then die off. That will probably be the case until we get a more focused line to form later this evening. Some models still keep the line broken and that is also possible. My thought process is with a strong cold front a line should develop and again straight line winds are still the main severe threat but those spin up tornado's tend to pop up here and there but not so easily predicted with this kind of pattern.

Some clearing / thinning of the clouds over IN now. Is it too little too late or will it be enough to assist for later?

57 / 55 now at CVG.

I haven't seen any sun in Butler Hamilton or Warren County this afternoon

Severe cells to the west and south of Chitown.

Currently 55 with a gust of 24 mph here in G'ville.

SPC should absolutely not be issuing a MCD with such wording. EF potential rating ahead of a storm? Come on now. That’s bad meteorological practice. Never seen that in my many years of weather tracking, forecasting, and observing. That’s a big thumbs down from me.

Trevor wrote: ↑Fri Mar 31, 2023 5:28 pm

SPC should absolutely not be issuing a MCD with such wording. EF potential rating ahead of a storm? Come on now. That’s bad meteorological practice. Never seen that in my many years of weather tracking, forecasting, and observing. That’s a big thumbs down from me.

I agree bro.

Totally irresponsible.

Batch of incoming storms will almost assuredly help to weaken the storms pronged for later.

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Forgot to mention earlier that my gauge picked up a half inch from last night / early this AM.

Thunder lightning and heavy rain in Milford.

One is skirting to the north of my county up toward Mercer.

Sun just popped out here in Norwood.

Sun’s out in Florence

My nephew Jared and his wife Madi reside in Franklin, TN near Nashville and Madi's parents reside in Nashville.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* Primary threats include...

Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely

Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely

Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible

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2235 5 N JACKSONVILLE AIRPORT MORGAN IL 3981 9023 SPOTTER POSSIBLY DROVE THROUGH TORNADO. SAID THERE WAS STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE DEBRIS AS IT PASSED. (ILX)

0136 100 4 W RAINSVILLE WARREN IN 4041 8739 (IND)

0155 UNK 4 WNW BADGER GROVE WHITE IN 4061 8703 2 HOMES DESTROYED AND SEVERAL DAMAGED. (IWX)

0156 UNK 5 W CHALMERS WHITE IN 4066 8696 SHINGLES AND SHEATHING REMOVED FROM GARAGE. NUMEROUS TREES DAMAGED ... SOME LARGE TREES DOWNED. (IWX)

0207 UNK 1 NW MERRILLVILLE LAKE IN 4148 8734 76TH AND JACKSON ST AREA. 6-7 HOMES WITH ROOFS PEELED OFF OVER GARAGES. DEBRIS SCATTERED AND WRAPPED AROUND TREES AND POLES ... AND TREES DOWN. POTENTIAL TORNADO DAMAGE. (LOT)

0211 74 VALPARAISO AIRPORT PORTER IN 4145 8701 65 KT GUST AT KVPZ. (LOT)

0220 UNK 3 E BELL CENTER CASS IN 4087 8657 SEMI BLOWN OVER ON SR 16 AT 1050W. (IWX)

0221 UNK 1 SE ROYAL CENTER CASS IN 4085 8649 *** 7 INJ *** TREE ONTO VAN. PRELIMINARY REPORT OF 7 INJURIES ... 5 MINOR. (IWX)

0230 UNK 8 WNW BATTLE GROUND TIPPECANOE IN 4054 8698 THUNDERSTORM WINDS FLATTENED 2 STRUCTURES TO BASEMENT. SEVERAL OTHER STRUCTURES WITH ROOFS BLOWN OFF NEAR JUNCTION OF BENTON TIPPECANOE AND WHITE COUNTIES. 1 INCH HAIL (IND)

0235 59 2 N NEW MARKET MONTGOMERY IN 3998 8692 OBSERVED AT KCFJ AWOS. (IND)

0240 100 2 S DARLINGTON MONTGOMERY IN 4008 8677 (IND)

0240 60 2 SSW MURRAY CALLOWAY KY 3659 8833 WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED AT 60MPH IN SOUTHWEST MURRAY. (PAH)

0245 60 4 WNW NEWBURGH VANDERBURGH IN 3796 8747 ESTIMATED ON EAST SIDE OF EVANSVILLE. (PAH)

0245 UNK 1 W THORNTOWN BOONE IN 4013 8663 BARN DESTROYED. TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR. (IND)

0249 60 PERU MIAMI IN 4075 8607 (IWX)

0253 75 PATRICKSBURG OWEN IN 3931 8696 PEA SIZED HAIL ALSO REPORTED. (IND)

0310 83 GOSPORT OWEN IN 3935 8667 SEVERE WINDS LASTED 8 MINUTES 1110PM TO 1118PM. 3 TREES DOWN. DIME HAIL. (IND)

0319 64 2 N NORTH WEBSTER KOSCIUSKO IN 4136 8570 MEASURED GUST 64 MPH. (IWX)

0323 UNK 3 ENE PARAGON MORGAN IN 3941 8650 WINDS DOWNED MULTIPLE TREES WITH CONSIDERABLE HOME DAMAGE BETWEEN MARTINSVILLE AND PARAGON. ALSO ESTIMATED 60 MPH WINDS IN PARAGON. (IND)

0334 59 1 SSE EAGLE CREEK RESERVOIR MARION IN 3983 8630 ASOS STATION KEYE INDIANAPOLIS (EAGLE CREEK). (IND)

0336 67 INDIANAPOLIS INT'L AIRPORT MARION IN 3972 8629 (IND)

0340 65 3 E AVON HENDRICKS IN 3976 8634 (IND)

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Fri Mar 31, 2023 7:23 pm My nephew Jared and his wife Madi reside in Franklin, TN near Nashville and Madi's parents reside in Nashville.

My cousin and his family live in Franklin as wel!

So- been watching Ryan Hall all afternoon.

Are we in any danger overnight?

Winds just above the surface are screaming. I suspect a watch will be issued soon for the tri-state. Damaging wind potential is increasing. Spin-up tornadoes are also increasingly likely.

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