January 2025 Wx Discussion

[tron777]

Even the 12Z Euro AI isn't that cold. After Day 10, you can toss the OP Euro from this afternoon. Straight into the abyss.

[Bgoney]

IMG_3060.jpeg

IMG_3061.gif

[tron777]

WAVE 3 in LOU's call for Sunday.

Wave3 for Sunday.jpg

[tron777]

Gumball posted this on his FB page today:

Longest stretches with more then 6" of snow on the ground in #Cincinnati:

1.) 1977 - 25 days
2.) 1918 - 20 days
3.) 1978 - 19 days
4.) 2010 - 12 days
5.) 1917 - 11 days
6.) 1985 - 9 days
7.) 1996 & 2025 - 7 days
8.) 2021 - 6 days ❄

[Bgoney]

I think I’d broad brush our area for an inch or less for Sunday, even our SE counties

[tron777]

18Z GFS has the southern energy weak and fast and the northern stream energy we get next Friday from the upper level system. A shame these two can't get together.

Code: Select all

CVG

FRI 12Z 24-JAN  -2.7    -8.5    1013      94      98    0.04     527     517    
FRI 18Z 24-JAN  -1.7   -13.1    1012      57      96    0.06     522     513    
SAT 00Z 25-JAN  -4.6   -14.1    1013      79     100    0.02     520     510    
SAT 06Z 25-JAN  -8.0   -17.4    1015      80      99    0.03     517     506    
SAT 12Z 25-JAN  -8.4   -15.1    1019      85      86    0.01     521     506    
SAT 18Z 25-JAN  -4.0   -14.9    1025      65      63    0.01     532     512 

[tron777]

The pattern really gets active by Day 10 with a fairly strong SE ridge showing up.

[tron777]

CVG reported a 4" snow depth today but that was at 7am this morning. After a day in the 40s and a low above freezing tonight followed by a quarter inch or so of rain... I'd say the snow pack should be reduced to an inch or two tops. SE Crew has best chance for a quick refresher as well as a couple isolated LES areas off of Michigan Sun morning. My hood will probably me in no mans land on this one.

[tpweather]

Good Evening and we await the rainfall overnight. I thought for sure fog we be an issue and that did not happen. I missed that forecast but believe late Saturday into Sunday I feel confident that has been a good call. I started feeling better when I saw a few mets in the last few days start to get onboard with that system and watched Kevin tonight and he mentioned that models just don't handle true arctic fronts. He also has outlined his forecast next week which is very similar to how I see the pattern developing next week. Should see by Saturday morning winter weather advisories for folks in southeast Kentucky and maybe up to I-64 east of I-75. The ratios will be 20-1 and that is why these systems that don't have tons of moisture can produce some decent snows. Funny to say but the CMC will end up being the winner this week if the system happens Sunday. So this week the models really get a bad grade for the weekend except the CMC of the 3 major models.

[MVWxObserver]

Both CVG / DAY got to 42 and CMH 40 on Fri.

[Bgoney]

34 here

IMG_3062.png

[tron777]

Good morning! 37 here IMBY this morning. 0.24" at CVG as of 6am. Once the ran ends later today, we drop. That secondary low on Sunday is trying to give us some snow mainly SE of I-71 on Sunday so FYI SE Crew, you may get a little snow here.

QPF at CVG for Sunday.

6Z NAM - 0.12"
6Z GFS - 0.05"
6Z Euro 0..04"

[tron777]

6Z HRRR is trying to give CVG 1-2" for Sunday with light snow and a Lake Michigan component. Hmmm.... Check this out from the boys:

The setup for Sunday has become a bit more concerning for us,
but the threat for impactful wintry weather will come in two
forms.

1) A S/W rounding the base of the expanding/digging longwave
trof will pivot E into the srn OH Vly by early Sunday morning,
spreading deep-layer ascent into a still amply-saturated LL
profile. This will promote the development of a large band of
SN, which should pivot to the NE through KY into far srn OH by
daybreak Sunday, bringing light accumulating snow to the SE
third or so of the ILN FA. There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty regarding latitudinal placement of this band, with
the synoptic and ensemble guidance supportive of one to perhaps
two tenths of an inch of liquid-equivalent pcpn stretching from
Robertson Co KY through Hocking Co OH and points to the S.
Given above- climo SLRs on the order of ~15:1, this would
translate into a broad axis of 1-3" within this corridor from
about 09z through 18z Sunday. This being said, there is still
some disagreement regarding just how far N this band will
extend, lending itself to uncertainty in how expansive this band
of 1-3" of snow will be locally.

2) Sunday is shaping up to be a fairly cold and blustery day
area-wide, with steep low-level lapse rates coinciding with
increasing forcing as a midlevel S/W swings through the area.
Good saturation within the DGZ and sufficient lift within the
DGZ suggest that SHSN activity should be fairly widespread by
Sunday afternoon into the evening. Of particular concern is
several focused bands of SHSN activity along the leading edge of
the incredibly deep/sharp PV anomaly, which will move E through
the area late Sunday afternoon into the evening. This signal is
so strong that it is actually appearing within several coarse
synoptic QPF plots, suggesting that the SHSN could be locally
intense. Bottom line is that we very well could be dealing with
some snow squalls Sunday afternoon into the evening, with LL
temp profiles more-than-supportive for efficient accumulation on
roads and the overall setup being favorable for impactful
SHSN/squall activity. As with these setups, it is not about the
amounts, but rather the rapid change in conditions that come
with the passage.

So regardless of whether the light snow early Sunday
materializes locally, there is likely to be impacts from
SHSN/squalls on Sunday afternoon/evening across a much broader
portion of the local area. At this time, Winter Weather
Advisories have been considered, but the question remains for
which parts of the area and whether to include the SHSN/squall
portion of impacts Sunday afternoon/evening, despite the
expectation for not meeting/exceeding advisory-level snow criteria
except perhaps within the aforementioned SE third of the ILN FA
due to light banded snow Sunday morning. Will highlight this
potential in the HWO and other messaging platforms as the snow
squall potential will likely be the greatest concern through
the short term period.

Temps will range from the lower 20s (NW) to the upper 20s (SE on
Sunday, with a negligible diurnal rise for most spots.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and a nice steady cold rain this morning. Does help with some of the roads removing the salt. Forecast still on track and the added feature is the snow squalls from the north. These can produce decent snows in a short period of time because of the ratio's but the biggest problem is finding out exactly where they are going to hit later Sunday. Usually narrow intense bands and almost hard to predict until they form. Roads can become slick quick and sometimes almost whiteout conditions for a short period.

Will work on the extended more but at the moment the forecast still looks good and once again models will need to catch up to the pattern and with the arctic air mass still in place early this week it may take them a day or two to figure out exactly what will happen later this week

[CINCINNATI01]

36 degrees with rain should be illegal

[Bgoney]

Starting to see a few grass blades peaking out the snow

[tpweather]

You can see the piece of energy in Colorado and Kansas that will be the system for late tonight and early Sunday. That was key in getting the system to work with the arctic front and produce some decent snows. I would go locally 1-2 inches by noon on Sunday. Yes there will be a cutoff and still working on that part of the forecast. Heading to southeast Kentucky a nice dose of snow for them and winter weather advisories and would not be surprised to see a few winter storm warnings go up for some counties later today. Sunday afternoon we wait for the snow squalls and this will be fun to watch because this is also rare to see these squalls this strong this far south. I do expect some winter weather advisories to be issued locally for the combo light snow from the low pressure and the snow squalls. Will probably issue them with the late afternoon update.

[Bgoney]

Should be seeing some wet flakes mixing in in our NW counties

[tpweather]

Okay the extended seems good. The first system in the Monday-Wednesday time period is not going the furthest south route and though still south of us but don't be surprise snow is further north than models show and maybe in parts of the Tn valley. The second system late in the week and again models are models and just have a really hard time with the arctic air. Watch out in the southern plains as the southerly winds will start to turn mid-week and many times with these troughs that are northeast to southwest a storm will start to form as the trough is trying to get the heck out of town. This usually lead to a system though it may not be strong a lot of overrunning precip is likely to break out. Still believe that will be headed this way and just timing is the hard part at the moment. So starting late Thursday-Sunday is the period to watch and the quicker it breaks out the more impacts this can cause for a wider area. Living in the Ohio or Tn valley late next week I believe are the most likely places to watch. Still to early for any details and don't get hooked up on one model run that shows a heavy snow event and the next barely shows anything happening.

Good thing today is one starting at 4pm or so to spend watching 2 great games and Les rooting for those Lions and if you have no turnovers then I believe they are the best team. The KC-HOU game is going to be a low scoring game imo and lets once again see the magic of KC. Give it to Reid/Mahomes as they are a great team that works together and a really good defensive corrd.

[tpweather]

One other item I forgot is we will still have at least 1 inch on the ground after today and that makes 14 straight days and over the next 6 days for sure that streak will stay alive. Not sure what the record is around here but my guess getting close to 20 days must be in the top 10 of all time.

[tron777]

Light rain and 36 in Milford right now.

[Bgoney]

39 here

[Bgoney]

I don’t have any changes so far for tomorrow. I’m all in on the vigorous snow squalls producing an inch or less for the majority of the region in the morning and afternoon. I’m still not convinced of the better qpf and timing of the arctic air working its way into the cvg/Day/Cbus triangle. Still think that the best timing and qpf is located in the Appalachia counties and region

[tron777]

I'll go with up to 1" for us and 1-2" SE Crew for tomorrow.

[Bgoney]

Cvg hanging in there with a 2” snow depth as of 7am. Currently 37 at cvg