I get the Hurricane watch but I think its less likely to become a Hurricane . Shear doing its thing on the left side of center of circulation, pushing convection north and east. 60 mph gust with a heavier band in key west but outside of bands 30- 40 suatained That is what I have noticed with this s...

Good morning all! Looks like another 90 degree day is in the works with only a slim chance of pop up storms. Better chances come Wed and Thurs with a cold front. A break Friday with more decent chances coming this weekend. Those chances look to carry us into next week also. We could use some rain f...

Good Afternoon and a normal warm and muggy day with temps in the 88-92 range. Should be the same over the next few days before a better shot of rainfall but nothing like last week. Looks like a normal pattern until mid-month then do we finally get the shot of heat.

Models in good agreement now, 4-6" for the western half of Florida, should only result in minor flooding issues Yes the CMC finally caved and went towards the Euro which had recently went towards the gfs. Getting 4-6 inches should be no problem as until the past few weeks they have been below ...

Glad to be back home and even down in SC it was nice Friday and Saturday and getting dew points in the 50's is rare during the summer down there. How many 90 degree days are in store, 2 maybe 3 possible. Not quite the amount of moisture in the air this week like we had last week which was off the ch...

Elsa is a bit disheveled these days. Pressure around 1009 mb . Very Little wind. A nod to the EUs solution from a day or two ago, that its headed to being a wave than a hurricane. Still has circulation according to radar though, so something to still pay attention to So far the Euro has done better...

Good Morning, Hispaniola and the central and eastern parts of Cuba have plenty of mountains to hurt the chances of it getting stronger. If the path can take it further west over western Cuba then there is a chance of the system to get somewhat stronger. No problem with the waters being warm enough a...

Good Morning and nice relief down here in SC with dews in the 50's which rarely happens between June 1-Sept 15th. The long term through mid-month still looks like no extended heat. Yes we will have a few days near 90 but with all the rain in the central plains,ohio valley,southeast and also the sout...

Yes I see the Hurricane has been named and rather impressive this early in the game. How strong and maybe it gets to a cat2 but where will it end up going and will there be any affect on the local weather. The gfs is bringing it into the gom just off the Florida coast while the latest cmc is having ...

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 02, 2021 10:33 am Safe travels for sure Tim!

Thanks Les.

Some nice rain down here just south of Greenville and my guess is about 1/2 of an inch. The front is moving through rather quickly for a early July front and even expecting dew points to drop which seldom happens from about mid-June - early Sept. Heading back home on the 4th but leaving at 4am and s...

Just trying to see anything on the models that could mean a pattern change. Again these can be small changes that end up being big changes if they happen. The only thing I see on the models is the thermal low that usually resides over the southwest is showing up over the next 10 days. This is a main...

Les and Bgoney, I understand exactly where you guys are coming from in terms of possible heat in the extended. If the current pattern continues to deliver rain every 3-4 days it is almost impossible to get a heat wave going. Vegetation will thrive and as we have seen in the past very hard to get any...

Nice break coming with some nice temps but it will be short-lived. With the tropics getting busy in this part of the world tropical moisture will flow in this part of the world. Add this to some heat from the west and good very easy see a repeat next week. Most of the severe weather this go around h...

I see a tornado warning in Marion County Ohio. Those cells that are away from the main precip sometimes can produce a tornado. Not sure if we have anybody on the forum that lives in that area.

gfs_T2ma_samer_2.pnggfs_T2ma_samer_fh12-144.gif In incognito weather,,, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, Bolivia, and BRAZIL, a much larger area than the NW , have seen record breaking cold , freezes and snow recently. Major crop losses in these countries to coffee, sugarcane and corn Perfect and once...

https://noaanhc.wordpress.com/2021/06/30/was-2020-a-record-breaking-hurricane-season-yes-but/ Wow, hurry up and read this article before it is ripped to shreds and never seen again. These two guys really need to watch their backs from now on. Finally someone with the courage to use real science and...

Good Morning and glad to see most folks got a good dose of rainfall. Les your forecast looks good and just waiting to see how the tropics play out over the next week or so. Good morning Tim and thanks! We should be able to tack on 2 or 3 90 degree days next week in my opinion thanks to Elsa. Right ...

Good Morning and glad to see most folks got a good dose of rainfall. Les your forecast looks good and just waiting to see how the tropics play out over the next week or so.

Good Evening and looks like a few showers and thundershowers are popping up but widely scattered which was expected today. The best chance and a very good chance of rain will happen overnight and expect a very wet rush hour. How long the rain last is all with the front and how long it takes to work ...

Bgoney I was thinking about that myself. We have seen that play out quite often and can never say never but I believe everyone before midnight Friday morning everyone should have a got a decent shot of rain. Later today some nice thundershowers could pop up with heavy rains but the problem is where ...

Good Afternoon and over 1/3 of an inch this morning here. One of those mornings that the sky unleashed all the humidity from the day before. Going to mention the heat wave out west and it is getting national attention and this time it should. Usually the heat in the northwest is later in the summer ...

Thursday looks like one of those few days you see in the summer with rain for much of the day. How much rainfall is the question and the answer to that question will be how long does it take the cold front to move through. So my guess is the further south you live the greater chances for more than 2...

Danny is the first tropical to hit South Carolina in June since 1867. Again not a major system but the feel of the tropics is being felt here in northern South Carolina.

Looks like the gfs is finally catching up on what the other models have been showing for sometime. Funny how the gfs had been doing better than the Euro but that has changed over the past 10 days or so. Again we need more data and another year or so to see if the new gfs is better than the old gfs.