West Pac Typhoon Season Discussion

[tron777]

Use this forum to discuss Western Pacific storms and typhoons.

[tron777]

We've got TS Champi in the West Pac at this time with winds of 40 mph. Expected movement per the JTWC is to the North then NE and is expected to miss Japan at this time.

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp0621.gif

[tron777]

West Pac starting to fire up a little.

abpwsair.jpg

[tron777]

TD 8W made landfall across S Asia and will eventually come back out into the water in the Bay of Bengal then make a second landfall in the coming days over India.

wp0821.gif

[tpweather]

We are nearing mid-July and once again the typhoon season in the pacific is low on systems. Last year was one of the lowest in terms of storms I remember and this season could once again be on the low side.

[tron777]

Tropical Wave 98W has a medium chance of development in the next few days per the JTWC.

[tron777]

TD 09W now ongoing:

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp0921web.txt

[tron777]

TD 9W projected strength and path guidance from the JWTC:

wp0921.gif

[tron777]

A couple of systems in the West Pac right now:

abpwsair.jpg

[tron777]

1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 34.6N 146.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.6N 146.8E

[tron777]

TS 11W or Nepartak

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 40.2N 140.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 40.2N 140.3E
---

[tron777]

There are three TD's out in the West PAC so things continue to get more active in this area as well.

[tron777]

West Pac is busy busy busy now that the JTWC website is back up. We've got numerous systems to deal with. We have TS Lupit, TS Mirinae, TS Nida, and Invest 91W.

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html

[tron777]

We are now down to just TS Lupit and TS Mirinae this afternoon.

[tron777]

TD 16W is all that remains in the West Pac at this time.

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html

[tron777]

TD16 W, formally known as Omais has made landfall in China. Nothing else going on attm in the West Pac.

[tron777]

We've got TS Conson that will be impacting the N. Philippines and eventually SW China.

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp1821.gif

Also have TD 19W which is expected to get a name and become a typhoon down the road. At this time, Taiwan maybe impacted.

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp1921.gif

[tron777]

TS Conson is still out there. TD19W is now Typhoon Chantu. Both systems are expected to make impacts to land.

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp1921.gif

[cloudy72]

It's been amazingly quiet out there recently!

[tron777]

It's been amazingly quiet out there recently!

Tim made a post the other day about the MJO being in a more favorable phase now for the Pacific (in terms of cyclones) and I think he's right on the money. Phase 5 I believe is where we're headed there.

[tron777]

Super typhoon Chantu:

[tron777]

We have 3 waves of interest in the West Pac right now.

abpwsair.jpg

[tron777]

West PAC is flaring back up with 2 depressions to keep an eye on.

WestPac.jpg

[tron777]

Tropical Cyclone 3B is going to move into India over the next few days. We also have Typhoon Mindulle which will work its way up towards Japan. Question on that one is... does it do the re-curve or not? A little too early to tell there.

wp2021.gif

[tron777]

Mindulle is now a Super Typhoon! Re-curve looking more possible now over the next several days.