Absolute Vorticity

Happy Thanksgiving to all! Rainfall here 0.16”.

0.16" here also. 45 degrees.

Good Afternoon and taking a break from football as this first game is not easy to watch. Rain moved through quite quickly and I missed the timing as their is very little in the way of a southeast ridge to hold these fronts up. Seems often during the late fall and winter we have some sort of southeast ridge that pumps up heights and also brings up milder air which in turn delays cold fronts or pushes low pressures further north and west. Next week especially later in the week looks to get busy and love to see the different model runs over the next 4 days.

Lions just scored. 14-13 Detroit. Got a good game going now. 12Z Euro looked interesting next weekend. Too bad it's Days 8-10.

And in typical Detroit fashion, we lose. Anyway... 12Z CMC and GEFS also look interesting to back up the Euro.

My gauge picked up .30" for Thanksgiving Day.

Looks like we'll finish the month near normal temp wise as expected. Below normal in precip which is in line with most of the rest of the lower 48 due to the reasons we discussed a few days ago.

Good Morning and cold outside but the winds held up last night and the clouds stuck around so temps did not fall much. Sunny but cold today and this evening temps will dive quickly but overnight the sw wind may pick up and keep temps from falling much below 25. Timing is key as always so if the winds take a little longer to pick up then temps may fall a little more especially folks to the northeast.

I believe my clipper may be dead in the water as the pattern is just speeding along but if you notice the strong winds last night and tells me the jet stream is starting to get more active so over the next few weeks storminess is more likely.

No southeast ridge to speak of and you can see that over the past month with Florida one of the few places that got above normal precip plus much of the southeast very cool for November. If the pattern keeps repeating over the next few weeks their will be chances for winter weather but the best place would be in the northeast. That is a little out of the normal but not unheard of because usually they get hit harder in winter during late Jan through Mar as the Atlantic has cooled some so getting some cold air to flow into the this early can produce some big time storms off the coast.

Coldest place in the NH compared to average this fall has been northeast Asia and we talked about how China got hit earlier in the month and Japan in recent days have got some great sea affect snows which have dump tons of snow in the mountains and on the west coast of Japan. Yes very similar to lake affect snows. Siberia is near average on snowfall this fall and while Canada started out way behind no doubt that has picked up in the last few weeks. Alaska has been cold and snowy this fall as well but will that continue. The interior of Alaska over the next few days should see some of the coldest air of the season with some folks getting to -30 and below. Below normal and sure but nothing they have not seen in late November. Will that cold ease is something we need to watch and if its directed more towards Canada. Northern and Central Canada much colder and even slightly below in the northern regions.

So no doubt we have cold air to tap with the correct set up and tell you the truth the last 2 weeks have been rather cold without grabbing to much cold air from those regions so getting a drier November can lead to some decent cold weather and probably have notice how many more days of sun we had this month compared to most Novembers.

We still need to get the snow pack to get going northwest of us. That helps in getting colder air to move further south without modifying too much. No doubt storminess is coming but will this affect the central USA which we need or does the same pattern continue where the bigger systems are to the northeast of us which just gives us glancing blows of cold air.

That brings us to the first week of Dec. and don't see any significant pattern change the first 7 days. Off and on western ridge resulting in a few periodic days above/below normal with frontal passages and precip. During week 1 models agree we lose the -NAO for a time but a lot of run to run variability on how the PAC sets up for week 2. Leaning atm for the Arctic air that is giving Alaska record cold Nov temps to bleed down into the the NW and rockies late week 1 and during week 2. To soon to say when and if it can bleed into the rest of the lower 48

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 8:22 am That brings us to the first week of Dec. and don't see any significant pattern change the first 7 days. Off and on western ridge resulting in a few periodic days above/below normal with frontal passages and precip. During week 1 models agree we lose the -NAO for a time but a lot of run to run variability on how the PAC sets up for week 2. Leaning atm for the Arctic air that is giving Alaska record cold Nov temps to bleed down into the the NW and rockies late week 1 and during week 2. To soon to say when and if it can bleed into the rest of the lower 48

Very good post and Bgoney I know you follow weather around the world but the record cold November in Alaska did not seem that way to me. They have been below normal for sure and maybe a day or two where you saw a record cold temp for the date but in all in all I thought they were just having a cold November but nothing out of this world. I know usually in later November in Fairbanks you need to see -40 - -50 to get near records and I do see a few temps in the -30 range which is well below normal but nowhere near records. Maybe I missed the early part of November while playing in SC lol and missed the extreme cold weather they were having. No doubt northeast Asia and Alaska has been the places which have been below normal this fall just was not sure about the record cold in Alaska.

One thing we forget is how mild it has been the USA especially the southwest and central part of the country. The central USA even the northern plains are just getting glancing blows from these cold fronts. Saying that most of November the cold that was around was not polar or arctic air from Canada as they have only gotten cold in the last 10 days or so. I do believe those glancing blows though will finally sink further south and west plus they should have more polar or arctic air behind the fronts so even those folks will start to feel some winter chill at last.

Woke up at 5;30am to this. Still got snow showers around

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 8:34 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 8:22 am That brings us to the first week of Dec. and don't see any significant pattern change the first 7 days. Off and on western ridge resulting in a few periodic days above/below normal with frontal passages and precip. During week 1 models agree we lose the -NAO for a time but a lot of run to run variability on how the PAC sets up for week 2. Leaning atm for the Arctic air that is giving Alaska record cold Nov temps to bleed down into the the NW and rockies late week 1 and during week 2. To soon to say when and if it can bleed into the rest of the lower 48

Very good post and Bgoney I know you follow weather around the world but the record cold November in Alaska did not seem that way to me. They have been below normal for sure and maybe a day or two where you saw a record cold temp for the date but in all in all I thought they were just having a cold November but nothing out of this world. I know usually in later November in Fairbanks you need to see -40 - -50 to get near records and I do see a few temps in the -30 range which is well below normal but nowhere near records. Maybe I missed the early part of November while playing in SC lol and missed the extreme cold weather they were having. No doubt northeast Asia and Alaska has been the places which have been below normal this fall just was not sure about the record cold in Alaska.

One thing we forget is how mild it has been the USA especially the southwest and central part of the country. The central USA even the northern plains are just getting glancing blows from these cold fronts. Saying that most of November the cold that was around was not polar or arctic air from Canada as they have only gotten cold in the last 10 days or so. I do believe those glancing blows though will finally sink further south and west plus they should have more polar or arctic air behind the fronts so even those folks will start to feel some winter chill at last.

I should have been more specific in regards to the record cold in Alaska. Areas along the Alaska coast is where most of the records I saw were located . That kind of cold is rather anomalis along the coast.. One in particular was , oh boy I'm having a senior moment, King Salmon or Salmon Bay, I'll have to look that back up, but as of a few days ago the folks there were expecting there coldest November on record to normal

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 8:54 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 8:34 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 8:22 am That brings us to the first week of Dec. and don't see any significant pattern change the first 7 days. Off and on western ridge resulting in a few periodic days above/below normal with frontal passages and precip. During week 1 models agree we lose the -NAO for a time but a lot of run to run variability on how the PAC sets up for week 2. Leaning atm for the Arctic air that is giving Alaska record cold Nov temps to bleed down into the the NW and rockies late week 1 and during week 2. To soon to say when and if it can bleed into the rest of the lower 48

Very good post and Bgoney I know you follow weather around the world but the record cold November in Alaska did not seem that way to me. They have been below normal for sure and maybe a day or two where you saw a record cold temp for the date but in all in all I thought they were just having a cold November but nothing out of this world. I know usually in later November in Fairbanks you need to see -40 - -50 to get near records and I do see a few temps in the -30 range which is well below normal but nowhere near records. Maybe I missed the early part of November while playing in SC lol and missed the extreme cold weather they were having. No doubt northeast Asia and Alaska has been the places which have been below normal this fall just was not sure about the record cold in Alaska.

One thing we forget is how mild it has been the USA especially the southwest and central part of the country. The central USA even the northern plains are just getting glancing blows from these cold fronts. Saying that most of November the cold that was around was not polar or arctic air from Canada as they have only gotten cold in the last 10 days or so. I do believe those glancing blows though will finally sink further south and west plus they should have more polar or arctic air behind the fronts so even those folks will start to feel some winter chill at last.

I should have been more specific in regards to the record cold in Alaska. Areas along the Alaska coast is where most of the records I saw were located . That kind of cold is rather anomalis along the coast.. One in particular was , oh boy I'm having a senior moment, King Salmon or Salmon Bay, I'll have to look that back up, but as of a few days ago the folks there were expecting there coldest November on record to normal

Thanks for the clarification and that makes more sense and my fault for not thinking about the coastal cities.

Double post.

Get a load of these incredible departures for , it was King Salmon

Bgoney wonderful info and I tend to forget about that area as they tend to get tons of milder air and tons of rain. This makes perfect sense as northeast China,Japan and that area has been colder than normal. Getting that area of Alaska to keep the the cold going that long tells me as well not many pacific systems in the far east that are helping in producing ridges that move some of the cold air out of southwest Alaska.

Btw one of the forecast blunders I see mets do during the late fall and winter season is not keeping enough clouds in the Ohio Valley around which in turn keeps daytime highs down by several degrees. Usually I catch that but my have missed today though with a rather quick flow I expect some sun locally later today but if not a missed forecast by me.

Folks we have the model wars going on for next weekend. The Euro is showing a storm that brings in some really chilly air and a major snow to the east coast which I talked about earlier and the pattern imo shows that happening. The gfs has the cold air heading into the west with a nice storm for them and of course keeps us milder for a longer period. I still believe a really nice warm up later next week and low 60's are not out of question at all and that part of the forecast I believe is correct. So what happens when a pattern shows one things but the tellies tend to show a different setup.

Very confusing and makes it tough to forecast because of the data.The pattern will always dictate the tellies and I have some folks that would argue the opposite but makes no sense to me at all. Are the current tellies correct and are they able to keep up with the pattern change is the way I look at things.

The cold air in Alaska over the next several days will be cold but are we seeing signs of the cold moving out and heading into western and central Canada. I believe that is the case but then where does it go from there into the lower 48. Many times we get clues with snow on the ground and cold tends to head towards snow on the ground but the problems is very little snow in the lower 48 and even the mountains are way behind normal snowfall and maybe northeast 1/4 of the nation is about the only place where there may be snow on the ground.

So at the end of the day we try and make a forecast with the data and also some gut feeling of what may happen. When I see the models which are a great tool for forecasting so far apart my confidence level is well below normal and that is when I need a few more days to see how the weather on the ground is happening to get a better sense of which way the weather will turn out next weekend and beyond.

Last year we had the record amount of heavy snow in northern Siberia so late in November and that was a case where that seldom happens and it throws as wrench into forecasting long term. This November very dry over much of the lower 48 and like Bgoney mentioned the really cold air on the southwest coast of Alaska that has been long term also something you don't see every year. These kind of events will of course mess up models as they don't have enough info to go on plus for met's who only go by model output will more than likely end up with a bad forecast. I know the folks on here will be going back and forth which is always wonderful and usually one of us will catch something that others don't see and that is a great way into making a much better forecast.

wonder what happened to everyone. what a shame about the old site, i really miss the old format

A little bit of a change in the MJO forecast from the GFS today. Staying in the circle of death. Not really too active as in past forecasts.

Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving! A lot of great posts that I need to get caught up on, but in the meantime, here is this morning's episode of SnowTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/11/26/snowta ... blog-1126/

Trends on the 12Z models continue to what we saw overnight. Euro continued to be colder in the extended range then the GFS. GFS is at least a week delayed with bringing in the cold, where the Euro gets us cold by next weekend. I have no idea which one is right, but if the MJO forecast that Doug posted is correct (Meaning a weaker signal) then I would have to favor the delayed cold and warmer GFS.

You can really see the issues on the 12Z GEFS. Bgoney pointed this out previously too. GOA trough does not allow for the PNA ridge to become established. It pops up every now and again and we get cold when it develops, but no sustained cold because the GOA trough keeps beating it down. EPS seems to show more ridging over the West so it's a colder look. So again... Euro / EPS are colder and the GFS / GEFS are warmer.

I think something is coming with regards to a pattern change. I just don't know exactly when. Week 2 of Dec or after mid month? We'll have to wait and see.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 1:57 pm Trends on the 12Z models continue to what we saw overnight. Euro continued to be colder in the extended range then the GFS. GFS is at least a week delayed with bringing in the cold, where the Euro gets us cold by next weekend. I have no idea which one is right, but if the MJO forecast that Doug posted is correct (Meaning a weaker signal) then I would have to favor the delayed cold and warmer GFS.

You can really see the issues on the 12Z GEFS. Bgoney pointed this out previously too. GOA trough does not allow for the PNA ridge to become established. It pops up every now and again and we get cold when it develops, but no sustained cold because the GOA trough keeps beating it down. EPS seems to show more ridging over the West so it's a colder look. So again... Euro / EPS are colder and the GFS / GEFS are warmer.

I think something is coming with regards to a pattern change. I just don't know exactly when. Week 2 of Dec or after mid month? We'll have to wait and see.

My first thought when seeing the MJO forecast from the GFS was that if it stays weak and does not get into the warm phases of 5 and 6, as was previously forecasted, then maybe the colder Euro look would be more likely. Today's Euro MJO forecast still has it going into phases 5 and 6. As always, we will find out soon enough.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 1:57 pm Trends on the 12Z models continue to what we saw overnight. Euro continued to be colder in the extended range then the GFS. GFS is at least a week delayed with bringing in the cold, where the Euro gets us cold by next weekend. I have no idea which one is right, but if the MJO forecast that Doug posted is correct (Meaning a weaker signal) then I would have to favor the delayed cold and warmer GFS.

You can really see the issues on the 12Z GEFS. Bgoney pointed this out previously too. GOA trough does not allow for the PNA ridge to become established. It pops up every now and again and we get cold when it develops, but no sustained cold because the GOA trough keeps beating it down. EPS seems to show more ridging over the West so it's a colder look. So again... Euro / EPS are colder and the GFS / GEFS are warmer.

I think something is coming with regards to a pattern change. I just don't know exactly when. Week 2 of Dec or after mid month? We'll have to wait and see.

Good Afternoon Les and I believe watching the weather over the next few days is key for the forecast for next weekend. Not talking about locally but one place I am watching is Alaska and see if the cold air remains or moves towards Canada. Glad the sun came out today but it showed us this morning with a forecast if we are not careful with cold fronts but this one was trucking so I felt better about the sun this afternoon. I am leaning towards the Euro next weekend but that lean is more of a 60/40 lean so not a strong forecast by me but the best I can do at this point.

dce wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 2:05 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 1:57 pm Trends on the 12Z models continue to what we saw overnight. Euro continued to be colder in the extended range then the GFS. GFS is at least a week delayed with bringing in the cold, where the Euro gets us cold by next weekend. I have no idea which one is right, but if the MJO forecast that Doug posted is correct (Meaning a weaker signal) then I would have to favor the delayed cold and warmer GFS.

You can really see the issues on the 12Z GEFS. Bgoney pointed this out previously too. GOA trough does not allow for the PNA ridge to become established. It pops up every now and again and we get cold when it develops, but no sustained cold because the GOA trough keeps beating it down. EPS seems to show more ridging over the West so it's a colder look. So again... Euro / EPS are colder and the GFS / GEFS are warmer.

I think something is coming with regards to a pattern change. I just don't know exactly when. Week 2 of Dec or after mid month? We'll have to wait and see.

My first thought when seeing the MJO forecast from the GFS was that if it stays weak and does not get into the warm phases of 5 and 6, as was previously forecasted, then maybe the colder Euro look would be more likely. Today's Euro MJO forecast still has it going into phases 5 and 6. As always, we will find out soon enough.

Wave lengths shorten as we get into the winter months. Phase 5 in Nov is cold but not in Dec. Phase 6 in Dec is a blow torch for warmth, with Phase 7 putting us on the battle ground for the warm /vs / the cold. So we'd be very active in terms of storminess. Phase 8 1 and 2 as you know are the best phases for cold during Dec, Jan, and Feb. Even Kyle MacRitchie's experimental MJO model shows a much more weak signal as well.


I think you have to pay for the Aussie MJO model forecast nowadays and I have not seen that posted online by DT (or anyone else) since 11/22. At that time, the Aussie model had the MJO in phase 7 after Week 1 in Dec then phase 8 as we approach mid month. Not sure if that look has changed or not.