Absolute Vorticity

Farmers have been planting hard the last few days out this way

Nothing here yet. Band of rain is losing intensity and thinning out . Be lucky to get a tenth out this way

Good morning all! CVG only ended up with 0.07" Same with me and the Boone Co mesonet. The rain fizzled out even quicker then I thought. That dry air was tough! Patchy frost threat Thurs morning otherwise scattered rain chances Fri and Sat as we warm back into the 70s. 80s on Sunday with our best chance for rain Monday into Tues of next week.

EDIT: A correction on CVG's total. My coffee hadn't kicked in yet when I made this post. The total at the airport was only 0.04"

Good Morning Les and enough to get the ground wet. This system never looked impressive and though moisture looked a little impressive the dry air just ate it away. Yesterday was the worse day so far in the pollen count imo as my eyes were blurred all day long. Heading to Wisconsin on Thursday and head back either Sunday or Monday. Looks like some rainfall up there but they can really use the rain. Nice warm up here and still not sure on rainfall though expect some in the Fri-Sun period with a warm front but next week which a few days ago looked quite wet the southeast ridge is building and holding much of the rain to the west. Hopefully the ridge starts to break down and we get some decent rains

Good morning Tim! Agreed... we definitely need the ridge to break down to allow for better rain threats. If the ridge screws us over for early next week, then we'll have to see how the 5/3 - 5/5 time period goes for our next decent threat.

I just checked the overnight GEFS and EPS runs and both are in very good agreement on a -PNA pattern developing. This is a classic La Nina look too. What that means is a trough West / ridge East pattern. For us in the OV, that translates too above normal temps and below normal precip for the next 2 weeks at least. Only thing that can save us, is if the ridge's position is not being modeled correctly. Otherwise if it is, we will continue to see weakening cold fronts coming into the area with decaying rain / storm complexes. It's okay for now as it allows farmers (and us) to plant, but once the crops are in, we will need the rain. We'll see how things go esp once we get the May thread going here pretty soon but for now, this is how I see things playing out.

I agree Les and we saw the ridge start to pokes its head up last week in Florida and southern Texas. At the moment the southeast is winning that race and this happens every spring to see which area gets that early start on summer. Again way to early to say this is the pattern for the summer and lets hope not because this would lead to a hot and dry summer.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Apr 24, 2024 8:34 am I agree Les and we saw the ridge start to pokes its head up last week in Florida and southern Texas. At the moment the southeast is winning that race and this happens every spring to see which area gets that early start on summer. Again way to early to say this is the pattern for the summer and lets hope not because this would lead to a hot and dry summer.

No doubt Tim. I also hope that this isn't a summer preview of the pattern, but at the same time, it wouldn't surprise me. It would fit the El Nino to La Nina transition almost perfectly.

Wonderful post by Brian. So much of what he talked about is a pattern we see in May into early June with heavy precip in the plains and we get the leftovers. This pattern usually causes flooding in the plains and like we talked about hard for the farmers to get the crop in and then if you get to much rain that is not good either. This pattern years ago was more common with recent years being much drier overall.

They need the rain west of here so that is good but is too much of a good thing for them. This pattern for us would mean less rain and warm temps but with all the rain in the southeast the past 6 months getting humidity in here will not be a problem and you can end up in mid-late May with a pattern that is more like mid-late June. Again the pattern is not set in stone yet but something to watch over the next few weeks.

Great post Tim! I am in 100% agreement and I honestly have nothing further to add.

Severe wx risk(s) next week seem to be losing steam in our part of the world due to the above mentioned reasons. Every system weakens as it heads our way next week.

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Apr 24, 2024 12:52 pm Severe wx risk(s) next week seem to be losing steam in our part of the world due to the above mentioned reasons. Every system weakens as it heads our way next week.

Yes Sir.... As Tim and I have discussed... let's hope that this isn't the summer pattern showing its hand already. If it is, it's going to be one long hot summer.

Also... I looked at the raw text data from the 12Z GFS and looking at CVG.... if you add up the QPF being shown by the model from now thru 5/5, it is a measly 0.77" This is typically our wettest time of the year. Not good IMO....

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 24, 2024 1:07 pm Also... I looked at the raw text data from the 12Z GFS and looking at CVG.... if you add up the QPF being shown by the model from now thru 5/5, it is a measly 0.77" This is typically our wettest time of the year. Not good IMO....

That model always wants to fool us towards the end of the run showing a boundary hung over the OV with a wet period!

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Apr 24, 2024 2:20 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 24, 2024 1:07 pm Also... I looked at the raw text data from the 12Z GFS and looking at CVG.... if you add up the QPF being shown by the model from now thru 5/5, it is a measly 0.77" This is typically our wettest time of the year. Not good IMO....

That model always wants to fool us towards the end of the run showing a boundary hung over the OV with a wet period!

No doubt Joe. I'll believe it when I see it.

Frost and Les has mentioned all week about Thursday morning. The winds dying down and clear sky I believe some light frost is possible and of course further north and east has the best shot. Not a killing frost but maybe a tad bit of frost on the grass away from the house

Hope everyone enjoys the warm weather as I am heading to the tundra lol. Will be back probably late Sunday. Hopefully next week becomes a little more active and would love to see a few rounds of rain at night.

CVG got to 62, DAY 53 and CMH 55 today.

its 33 degrees here right now and expected to go down to 30 in the next couple hours. thats pretty chilly for overnight low this time of year which is why there is a freeze warming issued . the days are nice though when the sun is out its quite warm up in the 60s

Good morning all and safe travels to you Tim! I have a chilly 35 here right now before I head out for work. CVG is sitting at 38 per the 4am reading. No doubt some light frost is out there in some areas. I have no changes to the forecast. We are dry today and in the mid 60s. Low 70s tomorrow with that scattered storm chance as the warm front comes thru. Then 80 or so on Sat with windy conditions and a scattered storm or two possible. Dry and in the 80s for Sun with the best chances for rain still looking to be Monday and Tues of next week. Highs in the 70s (if it rains) or 80s if it does not can be expected early on next week. Definitely time to plant after today. For severe wx, I do not see that in the cards for us as those chances will remain off to the west. The ridge will protect us from the heaviest rains as well as the strongest storms.

I see two weather stories unfolding over the next 2 weeks. The first will be the trough developing over the Western US allowing for severe wx, flooding rains, etc to our West over the Plains States. This pattern will be good for storm chasers out that way too. For us, we will either be dry or see some weaker leftovers if anything can survive long enough as the ridge keeps us protected from the worst weather as I mentioned earlier. The second weather story will be the warm summer like temps for us. As I also said before, on days when we see debris clouds and / or leftover showers and t-storms, highs will be in the 70s. On days where we remain completely dry, temps in the 80 to 85 degree range will be common. It will be a humid air mass as well. Definitely a June like preview coming up. The only thing I am concerned about is the lack of rain so we'll have to keep an eye on that as we go forward in time. The further west of Cincinnati you live, the better the chance at getting some rain. The further east one goes, the lower the chance. This pattern that begins tomorrow once the warm front passes, could last thru the 1st week of May not only per the OP models but the Ensembles as well. A classic -PNA / La Nina pattern is in the works.

Currently 37 here in G'ville and progged to top out at around 60.

Officially 37 for the low at CVG this morning.