Absolute Vorticity

Starting to see quite a bit of sun in my backyard. This could lead to a few stronger storms this afternoon imo.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Apr 11, 2024 11:44 am Starting to see quite a bit of sun in my backyard. This could lead to a few stronger storms this afternoon imo.

Current CAPE values are around 250 J/KG over NKY and 500 by the time you get down towards LOU. Visible shows that the little clear spot over NKY should not last long.

CAPE is now up to 500 J/KG over the Tri-state with a small pocket of 1000 J/KG over SE Indiana. The shear and helicity aren't too bad with such a strong low working thru the area. The instability though is still very much in question. With the track of the low as well as the widespread clouds / rain we have seen today, I still believe that any severe wx will remain to our Eastern counties. 995 MB low is over us as now as of 1pm.

I agree Les the better chances to the east but would not be surprised to get a strong storm or two later today as the winds will also pick up. This is not a severe event for us and even further east not so sure but a strong storm is possible with heavy rain and yes the winds picking up. My daughter flew into Tampa and of course tornado warning in that area.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Apr 11, 2024 1:21 pm I agree Les the better chances to the east but would not be surprised to get a strong storm or two later today as the winds will also pick up. This is not a severe event for us and even further east not so sure but a strong storm is possible with heavy rain and yes the winds picking up. My daughter flew into Tampa and of course tornado warning in that area.

It looks like we get a short break here before more action over Central KY comes northward into the region.

SPC has an MD issued for an 80% chance of a watch to be issued for Eastern KY.


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0422.html


This makes good sense to me.

Going to be in the 2-3” + range for a good chunk of the area

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Thunder here in G'ville and 64 degrees.

CVG got to 66, DAY 67 and CMH 65 today.

Rough drive home with heavy traffic and a couple of nice wrecks over on the side to boot! Took me well over an hour today. Ugh... I miss working from home. Anyway, the heavy rain was tough also for vis. purposes. CVG checking in now with 1.51" as of 5pm. 1.68" at the Boone Co mesonet and 1.62" here! We are all probably about water logged now. But as I have said before in a month or two from now, I'll be complaining that it's 90, humid and dry. The Dome always regains its ground.

Have an incoming shelf cloud off to my west

Good Evening and always nice to have rain in the spring but farmers need to get their crops in as well and sometimes there is to much of a good thing. We are not at that point and looks like we are going to have a nice break from the rain starting Saturday along with warm temps.

As expected, the severe threat in the tri-state did not materialize. Very surprised the SPC took so long to relief the slight from our area.

2.6 inches in my rain gauge. This is the most rainfall within about a 3 week period that I can ever recall in the Dayton area. I have lived in various places around town throughout my life, but it's unusual for this area to receive 2.5 - 3.5 inches of rain from a particular rain storm. Much less multiple times within a couple three weeks.

I've been getting hit with some heavy pockets of rain this morning from the backside precip. 1.54" at CVG was the event total until this last batch started to move in. We will probably tack on a bit more today. It's windy and temps have fallen into the upper 40s too. A lovely day in store lol

After a chilly start on Sat, in the 40 to 45 degree range, the rest of the weekend looks great! 75 to 80 range for highs beginning on Sun thru most of next week. Everything will explode in growth next week. More t-storm chances too beginning Tues night the way it looks right now.

Oh and for you gardeners out there, I would still hold off on planting. GFS has been showing a couple more frost threats on the 19-20th with lows in the low to mid 30s range.

EDIT: 0Z Euro now lending its support too.

72 hour rainfall as of 2am. Another upstream soaker along with our area. 2.5” here so far

In case anyone needs the link, here it is for the Ohio River Forecast Center.


https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/


Moderate flooding is already being forecast along parts of the River. We'll have to see how high it will go once upstream rains are factored in.

Good Morning and total from the storm 2.31 inches. Les I agree everything will pop next week and the sinus train will be full blown. Love the 70's next week though I saw where another cold snap is in the cards but at least they don't last long this time of year.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Apr 12, 2024 6:30 am Good Morning and total from the storm 2.31 inches. Les I agree everything will pop next week and the sinus train will be full blown. Love the 70's next week though I saw where another cold snap is in the cards but at least they don't last long this time of year.

The worst time of the year for allergy suffers is coming and will soon be here. No doubt! The 70s will feel nice considering what we have been seeing as of late. The cold punch being advertised by next weekend won't last long. It shouldn't get cold enough to hurt what's already out there, but I do think it will get cold enough to kill or damage sensitive vegetation, like your annuals and things like that.

ILN has issued a wind advisory for our Northern counties thru this evening. An interesting read from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
Have issued a wind advisory through 8pm for the northern half
of the FA for gusts around 45 mph this afternoon into this
evening. Will continue SPS for the southern half where gusts
should be limited to around 40 mph.

The other item of interest this afternoon will be the pivot of
midlevel energy back in from the W late in the day, supporting
another focused area for forcing and lift extending from EC IN
into SW OH and N KY, especially by/after 20z. This will
coincide with an axis of decent SB-instby on the order of
500-750 J/kg, despite meager LL moisture (sfc DPs generally in
the mid/upper 40s). With the steep lapse rates and an axis of
abrupt/enhanced forcing and lift, expect that there will be a
wing of scattered convection that develops within this corridor,
particularly near a line from Fayette/Union Cos IN into parts
of N KY and extreme far SW OH (such as Brown Co). This
convection, which is expected to have some TS to it given the
deeper (albeit very skinny) nature of the CAPE (with good LL and
midlevel lapse rates). The concern here is not necessarily the
expected development of SCT TSRA near the Tri-State between
20z-01z, but the potential that the convective processes
associated with this activity could help translate stronger
winds from aloft to the sfc. While it is still somewhat unlikely
that gusts could reach or exceed 50kts (58 MPH, thus indicating
a severe storm), certainly the potential is there for storm-
induced/enhanced gusts in the 45-55 MPH range (well above the
prevailing synoptically-induced gusts of 35-40 MPH expected in
this area outside of storms). And, of course, with /very/
saturated grounds, it may not take a "severe" gust to cause
trees to topple or isolated power outages. This potential, for
convectively-enhanced wind gusts near or in excess of 50 MPH,
has been added to the HWO within this favored corridor from EC
IN through the Tri-State/N KY. The storm activity (which could
very well include some isolated small hail given the cold temps
aloft) should dwindle beyond sunset, yielding to quieter
conditions by late evening.

Highs today will generally top out in the lower 50s in central
OH to the upper 50s in far SE IN and N KY.

I promise, this is todays video!

Modeling continues to come into better focus on the pattern for the next few weeks. Warmer and still active at times next week. Then we turn colder towards next weekend. A couple of frosty nights are still showing up. Then we slowly come out of that cool spell, warm up, and turn active again in the closing week of April.

Getting hail in liberty township right now. Lightning and gusty winds too. And of course more rain.