Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Apr 10, 2024 4:39 pm Good Afternoon and not much change in the forecast. Best chances of heavier rain will be in the overnight and especially in that 4-9a time period. Next chance will be later in the afternoon as the front comes through but how fast and what recovery time from the morning rains will help determine the afternoon period. Still going 1-2 through Friday afternoon when the system is out of here. Then spring kicks into gear with many days in the 70's over the next week

We could hit our 1st 80 maybe on Monday ahead of our next system. The question will be for the longer term is this.... Do we have one more frost in the cards or it is over until Fall? I looked at the extended range earlier and I cannot really answer that question yet. I don't think we see frost for the next week to two weeks but after that? Who knows... I always wait until Mother's Day to plant to play it safe.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Apr 10, 2024 4:39 pm Good Afternoon and not much change in the forecast. Best chances of heavier rain will be in the overnight and especially in that 4-9a time period. Next chance will be later in the afternoon as the front comes through but how fast and what recovery time from the morning rains will help determine the afternoon period. Still going 1-2 through Friday afternoon when the system is out of here. Then spring kicks into gear with many days in the 70's over the next week

Agreed Tim. 1-1.5” probably on average with some areas picking up over 2” that see the heavier downpours.

Both CVG / CMH reached 63 and DAY 62 on Wed.

Good morning! 0.51" as of 4am at CVG. I think it rained most of the night, and it still is right now lol A 998 MB Low just S of Memphis over NW Mississippi, will move NE today right thru the region making for a wet day. I do not expect much in the way of severe wx today. Too much clouds and rain and the low track needs to be NW of us too. We get the wrap around showers on Friday which should set us up for a great looking weekend!

ILN now has us at 80 for Monday with t-storms returning by Tues into Wed of next week as the hit parade for weather systems continues.

0.67" at CVG as of 6:42am.

I’m sitting at .91 this morning. Would be happy to have the spigot turned off.

Good Morning and took my daughter to the airport and what a lovely morning. Plenty of downpours and traffic backed up everywhere. Always can use the rain and hope everyone is safe this morning.

Browneyedgirl wrote: ↑Thu Apr 11, 2024 7:02 am I’m sitting at .91 this morning. Would be happy to have the spigot turned off.

We have a couple more days to go before our next small break in the action.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Apr 11, 2024 7:03 am Good Morning and took my daughter to the airport and what a lovely morning. Plenty of downpours and traffic backed up everywhere. Always can use the rain and hope everyone is safe this morning.

That is the only good thing about having to go to work as early as I do, you miss a lot of that high volume traffic in the mornings.

0.75" as of 7am at CVG.

A very nice write up from the boys as to what is going against severe wx today. We have covered this but it's a good write up anyway.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
Broad sfc low pressure across the wrn TN Vly will track to the
NE along a sharpening warm front draped across wrn TN/KY and ern
IN and far SW OH through early afternoon. Although the sfc
pressure pattern will remain somewhat broad in nature, it will
be deepening through the daytime today (likely ~990mb) as it
moves into the ILN FA by the afternoon, signaling for yet
another anomalously-deep sfc low to be tracking through the OH
Vly this spring.

The expanding warm sector will envelop most of the ILN FA
(except perhaps EC IN and WC OH) by peak heating, a normally-
concerning situation considering the aforementioned deepening
sfc low tracking right through the area as well. The warm
sector, while characterized by sfc DPs in the lower 60s,
however, is likely to be muddied somewhat by repeated rounds of
SHRA and extensive cloud cover. In the absence of a more-
pronounced dry slot, which latest guidance suggests won`t be
quite as "clean" as previous data, there remains considerable
uncertainties regarding just how much sfc-based destabilization
is able to occur (owing to slightly cooler sfc temps). This
lends itself to questions about the potential for severe storms
locally. Needless to say, the difference in instability
stemming/generating from sfc temps of ~73F vs. ~68F (favored)
is quite large and undoubtedly the degree to which we are able
to warm (or not) will ultimately dictate severe potential by the
afternoon.

Diving further into the details, latest data shows a fairly
large band of SHRA moving from SW to NE across central KY into
NE KY and south-central/central OH between about 12z-17z, with
the best LL destabilization occurring on the SE/E flank of this
axis of SHRA/TSRA, with current guidance suggesting this will
ride within a corridor either on the far ern edges of Scioto to
Hocking to Licking Counties or entirely E of the ILN FA
altogether between about 17-19z. Suffice to say, the spatial and
temporal window for concern here appears to be rather small
locally, or at the very least smaller than earlier data/fcsts
suggested. And while the LL and deep-layer shear would suggest
convective organization, perhaps in several line
segments/clusters, the signal for tornadic potential appears to
be focused E of the local area. Certainly, given the SE sfc flow
and veering winds with height (albeit not abruptly), a tornado
cannot be ruled out within that Scioto to Hocking to Licking
corridor (assuming sufficient SB destabilization), but given
current trends, the focus for most concerning severe weather
appears to be just to the SE of the ILN FA (i.e. Lawrence to
Washington counties in OH).

In fact, when considering the entire expected evolution of
convection locally today, the greatest potential for a few strong
storms may end up being near/S of the center of the sfc low
itself, which should coincide with a narrow axis of LL
convergence and SB-instby near/S of the I-71 corridor from
19z-23z. This being said, even this corridor of better instby is
still somewhat meager (perhaps only on the order of 600-900
J/kg). Additionally, the LL wind fields (sfc-850mb) are
actually quite a bit weaker further to the W (within this
corridor of better instby) as you get closer to the broad LL
low, with the best LLJ positioned well to the E in ern OH by
21z. So with slightly better thermodynamics in these areas
comes much weaker LL/deep-layer speed/directional shear,
suggesting a low (but not zero) severe potential.

So all in all, it just doesn`t appear like the necessary
ingredients are going to come together in a manner that would
support more than an isolated local severe storm potential,
even in central/south-central OH within the ILN FA. Certainly
there is /some/ potential, but locally the best overlap of
kinematics and thermodynamics would probably be focused in the
17z-19z time frame within a 4-6 county area (if that). This may
be one of those situations where having a ~990mb deepening low
(albeit broad) darting to the NE through the region with a
well- established warm sector (DPs >=60F) just doesn`t lead to
much within the ILN FA as the mesoscale environment just doesn`t
respond or evolve in the necessary ways. This is not to say the
severe threat is zero within the ILN FA, because it certainly
is not. But... the latest data suggests a less concerning setup
than had been the case just 12-24 hours ago. The HWO has been
adjusted accordingly to reflect the latest thoughts.

Highs today range from the lower 60s in EC IN and WC OH to the
upper 60s in the lower Scioto Valley and NE KY.

Crossing over the one inch mark now.

1.05" at CVG now too. We are receiving more moderate to heavy rains in pockets as the broad surface low approaches as the morning wears on from the West.

I agree about severe weather and locally sure we could get a storm or two but for the most part just heavy rain. No doubt this is tropical moisture and you can get a small amount in a short period of time which can cause localized flooding. Rivers were rather high already and sure we will see them go up over the next few days and of course folks who live near these rivers and streams no the routine.

Browneyedgirl wrote: ↑Thu Apr 11, 2024 7:02 am I’m sitting at .91 this morning. Would be happy to have the spigot turned off.

Over 2” here , need an extended break after today. Soils are saturated, so anything more atm is a waste.

Well folks... I guess the original call of 1-2" or whatever is going to work out nicely after all. I wasn't patient enough I guess. 1.44" as of 11am at CVG.

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...The following counties in Indiana, Dearborn, Fayette,
Franklin, Ohio, Ripley, Switzerland, Union and Wayne. The
following counties in Kentucky, Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll,
Gallatin, Grant, Kenton, Lewis, Mason, Owen, Pendleton and
Robertson. The following counties in Ohio, Adams, Auglaize, Brown,
Butler, Champaign, Clark, Clermont, Clinton, Darke, Delaware,
Fairfield, Fayette, Franklin, Greene, Hamilton, Hardin, Highland,
Hocking, Licking, Logan, Madison, Mercer, Miami, Montgomery,
Pickaway, Pike, Preble, Ross, Scioto, Shelby, Union and Warren.

* WHEN...Through late tonight.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Heavy rain of 1 to 2 inches is likely with locally higher
amounts possible today into tonight. This rain will fall on a
saturated ground which will cause rises on area creeks and
streams and may result in flooding.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 11, 2024 11:00 am Well folks... I guess the original call of 1-2" or whatever is going to work out nicely after all. I wasn't patient enough I guess. 1.44" as of 11am at CVG.

Les we have a flood watch in effect. I guess the noon nam from yesterday may be correct all along. Getting that period of heavier rain at the prime time is key and I always look at 4-9am and 4-9p. So many times this year amounts were overdone but this was a tropical set up where moisture was coming straight out of the gom. I had 1-2 inches with some areas over 2 and that may be underdone before all is said and done. Nice to have the rain and hopefully like Bgoney mentioned we get a break starting Saturday. Still working on next week and not sold yet on when we get another round and once this system is out of here I believe the models will narrow it down somewhat but at the moment I am looking more at the end of next week

Browneyedgirl wrote: ↑Thu Apr 11, 2024 7:02 am I’m sitting at .91 this morning. Would be happy to have the spigot turned off.

I know what you mean, Lisa.

Starting to feel like Seattle of the Midwest.

Dearborn IN-Ohio IN-Switzerland IN-Boone KY-Campbell KY-Gallatin
KY-Kenton KY-Pendleton KY-Brown OH-Butler OH-Clermont OH-Clinton
OH-Hamilton OH-Highland OH-Warren OH-
1101 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.

* WHERE...The following counties in southeast Indiana, Dearborn,
Ohio and Switzerland. The following counties in northern Kentucky,
Boone, Campbell, Gallatin, Kenton and Pendleton. The following
counties in Ohio, Brown, Butler, Clermont, Clinton, Hamilton,
Highland and Warren.

* WHEN...Until 200 PM EDT.

* IMPACTS...Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 1101 AM EDT, radar indicated heavy rain. Minor flooding is
ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area.
Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen since overnight.
Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible
through early afternoon.
- Some locations that may experience flooding include...
Cincinnati, Hamilton, Middletown, Fairfield, Covington,
Mason, Florence, Independence, Lebanon, Norwood, Forest Park,
Erlanger, Springboro, Fort Thomas, Newport, Sharonville,
Wilmington, Monroe, Blue Ash and Loveland.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Apr 11, 2024 11:06 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 11, 2024 11:00 am Well folks... I guess the original call of 1-2" or whatever is going to work out nicely after all. I wasn't patient enough I guess. 1.44" as of 11am at CVG.

Les we have a flood watch in effect. I guess the noon nam from yesterday may be correct all along. Getting that period of heavier rain at the prime time is key and I always look at 4-9am and 4-9p. So many times this year amounts were overdone but this was a tropical set up where moisture was coming straight out of the gom. I had 1-2 inches with some areas over 2 and that may be underdone before all is said and done. Nice to have the rain and hopefully like Bgoney mentioned we get a break starting Saturday. Still working on next week and not sold yet on when we get another round and once this system is out of here I believe the models will narrow it down somewhat but at the moment I am looking more at the end of next week

The NAM and GFS yesterday both were very similar in showing the heavier totals for our area.

I see we have a flood warning for many areas locally

The video is not labeled correctly so disregard that. It's the usual BG StormTalk!

Les is that the storm talk from Brian for Wednesday?

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Apr 11, 2024 11:31 am Les is that the storm talk from Brian for Wednesday?

Well crap! Yes it is. Disregard the whole thing then LOL Today just isn't my day for posting and weather forecasting.