Absolute Vorticity

12Z NAM gives CVG 0.40" of QPF to work with for snow and / or concrete mixing lol With ratios, 2-3" certainly is doable.

IMO there will be a band of 4"+ snowfall somewhere within the main band. It'll be very skinny maybe a 10-25 mile wide band, Data supports anywhere from DAY to CVG and everywhere in between are in the game for the sweet spot at this point. It'll come down to nowcasting and tracking the low tomorrow as Bgoney said in an earlier post.

Severe t-storm watches out ahead of the low over TX and N LA today ahead of the southern wave so it's going to have a nice kick to it before the energy transfer to the EC Low. If we can get the low into WV as a 990 MB or thereabouts, the heavier totals will be ours!

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2024 9:49 am 12Z NAM gives CVG 0.40" of QPF to work with for snow and / or concrete mixing lol With ratios, 2-3" certainly is doable.

The amount of precip seems correct imo. The biggest problem is what formula we use and it is a messy one to say the least. Could we see .40 inches while snow is falling and no doubt but how much will accumulate is the hardest item to figure out. I am going to cut the amount in half in terms of snow accumulating and then lets say a ratio of 7.5-1 and we end up with 1.5 inches of snow. I still like the 1-3 call and again with all systems busts will happen especially since this is a fast moving system even though its getting stronger and that is because the jet stream is very fast. How long do we keep the energy on this side of the mountains is key as well and if the transfer to the coast is quicker totals less and if somehow we can add an extra hour or two on this side we may have somewhat higher totals.

The good thing is the storm is getting its act together and some severe weather involved so we have some decent energy to work with. Only if we could have been really cold ahead of this system then the amounts would have been really nice.

One final note and probably not a concern because of the timing but there may be some thunderstorms in eastern Ky and Tn late in the day and many times this will help feed more moisture northward. Going to say no as the storms may be winding down but will watch anyway.

I got two racks of baby backs on the smoker today. And cold beer! Other then that, watching the data today before the Superbowl. The Ensembles look nice. The 500 MB Low is closed off from Western KY thru NKY then opens up east of us. That is good news IMO for a slower transfer to the EC Low if we see that happen. Once she opens up into an open wave from a closed low, the snow will start winding down on our potion of the deformation snows. Until then from S ILL, IN thru NKY and SW Ohio, are in a prime spot at this time.

Only 37 right now so a bit cooler today the 40s versus low 50s then originally progged. Temps tomorrow and how warm we get will be interesting in how quickly we can get the column to cool. Strength of the low and if the ULL closes off will be huge if we can get it to all come together as we can envision it in our meteorological minds.

12Z RGEM hammers the SE Crew. Nice strong low into WVA but the snow band is just much skinnier and more SE then a lot of the guidance. Canadian fam has been that way the whole time. We got the NAM to come around to the stronger solution so that is good. GFS has been rock solid on a Cincy / CVG hit for days so let's see what we get in a bit on that one.

SPC Meso page shows the 700 MB low over South Eastern NM and a broad 850 Low near the Dallas area. Might be seeing a broad low forming near the S TX Gulf Coast.

12Z GFS 993 into SE KY by Mon evening as the deform band begins to develop to our SW as the low gets cranked up into Western Maryland by Tues morning at 993. Nice hit for CVG Land!

Well 12z GFS didn't disappoint haha

Wow... big hit for I-71 corridor and Cincy Metro on the GFS.

Foot for MBY at 10:1 about 7" at Kuchera. I see you lurking Pete.

Model trends seem to have all had a southern shift. They are to be dialing down the path. Les you could be in the bullseye for this one!

CVG
Not all of that 1.04" falls as snow mind you. I do think about 0.75" or more does fall as snow.

12Z ICON is a healthy 4-6" from West to East (heaviest East) across the heart of AV Country.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2024 10:07 am 12Z RGEM hammers the SE Crew. Nice strong low into WVA but the snow band is just much skinnier and more SE then a lot of the guidance. Canadian fam has been that way the whole time. We got the NAM to come around to the stronger solution so that is good. GFS has been rock solid on a Cincy / CVG hit for days so let's see what we get in a bit on that one.

Hey Les and you are correct about the RGEM though it has trended westward with each run and it shows some heavier precip as well but has a hard time figuring out whether its snow or rain

Les I will be busy for a few hours but chicken wings and cold beer later today. Will be on here this afternoon and hopefully we can get a good conversation going as this is a tricky little storm to say the least. Took my walk and its cold but not much wind so a nice 50 minutes a day helps the heart but no sure about the brain lol

Just checking the smoker from time to time here lol Will be time to wrap the ribs in the next hour for tenderization. CMC is weak and is the outlier solution.

GFS really lays it on. ratios will be low. this is gonna be like moving concrete. not fun !

12Z GEFS Mean gets a 993 MB low from SE KY into WV. Perfect Cincy Tri-state track.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2024 10:51 am Foot for MBY at 10:1 about 7" at Kuchera. I see you lurking Pete.

Hey Les. Maybe, just maybe, a certain rapper from the late 1980s early 1990s will be making an appearance

Pete1 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2024 11:50 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2024 10:51 am Foot for MBY at 10:1 about 7" at Kuchera. I see you lurking Pete.

Hey Les. Maybe, just maybe, a certain rapper from the late 1980s early 1990s will be making an appearance

Let's see what the Euro does. It just sucks that we have warm ground and need to get hit exactly as shown for a plowable event. If you can get 2" per hour rates for a few hours, a quick 4"+ can certainly happen.

I'm going to pretend to not be excited.

markalot wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2024 12:45 pm I'm going to pretend to not be excited.

See my thread title LOL!

Euro with a pronounced jiggle

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2024 1:16 pm Euro with a pronounced jiggle

No doubt further south.