Absolute Vorticity

Our last month of Met. Winter is upon us. It is a Leap Year this year so we get an extra day of winter. So okay... we've been discussing a potential pattern change coming for the second half of the month. I will say that the overnight guidance, some of it, is trying to throw snow lovers a bone in the Feb 4-6th period. A frontal boundary drops into the region and stalls and we get some waves to move along it with some overrunning precip. The 0Z GEFS, and 0Z Euro have this potential with some snow possible. The OP GFS, CMC, and EPS keep the precip to our south as the high is much further to the south, thus suppression. This is for the Day 8-10 period so we are in the keep one eye open stage and nothing more. We need to watch for the low's strength, the highs strength and position to the north to see where the baroclinic zone sets up for this potential event.

Beyond that... I think we briefly warm up again before a more sustainable pattern potentially sets up after the 10th with a +PNA developing, -NAO / -AO and -EPO combo. The timing of this possibility depends on the MJO. Does it stall out in Phase 7 or keep moving into the colder phases to give us some wintry chances for a 2 or 3 week period before spring comes? This is likely going to be the topic for a while in our new monthly thread. I'll get that discussion started immediately by posting the Euro Ensemble plots for the MJO. As you can see, we have more members now trying to get it into Phase 8 in roughly 3 weeks from now which could give us a decent second half of Feb.

Good Morning Les and a great post to start the February topic. You have been on the MJO for sometime and how the models keep wanting to have it dying out in phase 4,5,6 and this has not happened. Great call and nearing phase 7 and I believe models are starting to react and bringing in some colder air before mid-month. How much cold is still a big question but though I had the cold in here next weekend the models were holding it off until almost mid-month. As we have talked about on here for years when we have forecasts whether its precip amounts, type, longer term and we are not seeing the same thing it usually ends up somewhere down the middle. Models tend to pick up to much on the current weather in its longer term and then all of a sudden a switch goes off and its like overnight the models do a 180. Models only have what is programmed and then as met's or amateur forecasters like us we must look at the data and then form a forecast. Never easy longer term as we have many different items to look over.

February is going to be a busy month and I have no idea how much snow we will get but the recent stormier pattern should continue in February and yes I do believe an earlier spring this year and that would mean by mid-late March we are mostly done with winter and hopefully not have those days in the 40's in mid-April.

Here’s a cloud /precip satellite shot from about 12 hours ago. A lot of phase 6 still with a hint of 7 looks like to me

Thanks guys... great responses from you both also. Per the Aussies as of 1/25, still in Phase 6.

Quick reminder for normal temps for the first week of February cvg are 41 and 23. Still seeing a lot of those 40s for at least the first week. Past that is somewhat of a question mark depending on what happens with the Canadian ridge

Since Ground hog day is coming up.


https://www.iheart.com/content/2024-01- ... iant-coin/

Bill Murray's sequel: "Giant Coin Day at Gobbler's Knob!"

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Jan 27, 2024 8:34 am Since Ground hog day is coming up.


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I have a better idea on this topic. Lets get rid of these nuts who propose these ideas. My guess is the ground hog that is used to forecast the upcoming 6 weeks gets the best attention a ground hog could ever want. I also heard the other day the coffee beans are causing more co2 and we need to get rid of these farms and farmers who mostly live in poor countries and that is their survival. LEAVE MY COFFEE AND MY BEER ALONE are we will have problems. I believe you need to fence up California and this is the place all the nuts can come together with their wonderful ideals and hopefully they can live in peace.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Jan 27, 2024 9:00 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Jan 27, 2024 8:34 am Since Ground hog day is coming up.


https://www.iheart.com/content/2024-01- ... iant-coin/

I have a better idea on this topic. Lets get rid of these nuts who propose these ideas. My guess is the ground hog that is used to forecast the upcoming 6 weeks gets the best attention a ground hog could ever want. I also heard the other day the coffee beans are causing more co2 and we need to get rid of these farms and farmers who mostly live in poor countries and that is their survival. LEAVE MY COFFEE AND MY BEER ALONE are we will have problems. I believe you need to fence up California and this is the place all the nuts can come together with their wonderful ideals and hopefully they can live in peace.

Amen Bro!

They can wear their daisy chains and have some rounds of kum ba yah.

They should interview Phil and get his opinion. I suspect he lives the life of Riley with all the amenities of a king and a number of Phyllis’s that occasionally visit. Or he could spend a shortened life expectancy in the wild dodging farmers bullets and ever -growing traffic

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Jan 27, 2024 9:20 am They should interview Phil and get his opinion. I suspect he lives the life of Riley with all the amenities of a king and a number of Phyllis’s that occasionally visit. Or he could spend a shortened life expectancy in the wild dodging farmers bullets and ever -growing traffic

One of my favorite things in life is talking animals. We need to interview Phil

The trend of a slower or stall for the MJO continues with today’s latest

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Jan 27, 2024 8:34 am Since Ground hog day is coming up.


https://www.iheart.com/content/2024-01- ... iant-coin/

I keep saying "Now I've seen everything" but the internet and some groups of people never disappoints!

In terms of the Feb 4-6th period.... GFS keeps us dry, the CMC is now too far north with the boundary so it's a light rain event. GEFS is showing all solutions (nothing, snow, rain to snow and all rain) which is expected this far away. 12Z Euro has a strong low for the East Coast and an upper low for us with some snow. Anything goes this far out.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 27, 2024 2:09 pm In terms of the Feb 4-6th period.... GFS keeps us dry, the CMC is now too far north with the boundary so it's a light rain event. GEFS is showing all solutions (nothing, snow, rain to snow and all rain) which is expected this far away. 12Z Euro has a strong low for the East Coast and an upper low for us with some snow. Anything goes this far out.

Hey Les and I believe the middle of the week system coming up will play a roll in next weekend's possible event. Will that system stick around for a longer period or can it get caught up in the jet stream and move away from the mainland. We are heading into another pattern change and when that happens we get all kinds of possible model solutions and hopefully by mid-week we will have a better ideal.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Jan 27, 2024 2:16 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 27, 2024 2:09 pm In terms of the Feb 4-6th period.... GFS keeps us dry, the CMC is now too far north with the boundary so it's a light rain event. GEFS is showing all solutions (nothing, snow, rain to snow and all rain) which is expected this far away. 12Z Euro has a strong low for the East Coast and an upper low for us with some snow. Anything goes this far out.

Hey Les and I believe the middle of the week system coming up will play a roll in next weekend's possible event. Will that system stick around for a longer period or can it get caught up in the jet stream and move away from the mainland. We are heading into another pattern change and when that happens we get all kinds of possible model solutions and hopefully by mid-week we will have a better ideal.

Great post Tim! You're absolutely right. Models will struggle until next week's system for Tues and Wed comes into better focus. 12Z EPS has the low for 4-6th time period down in the Gulf on this run.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Jan 27, 2024 9:26 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Jan 27, 2024 9:20 am They should interview Phil and get his opinion. I suspect he lives the life of Riley with all the amenities of a king and a number of Phyllis’s that occasionally visit. Or he could spend a shortened life expectancy in the wild dodging farmers bullets and ever -growing traffic

One of my favorite things in life is talking animals. We need to interview Phil

Eddie Murphy's Dr. Dolittle e.g. could talk to Phil.

Per the Aussies, as of 1/26, we are still in Phase 6 for the MJO, but Phase 7 is getting closer. We are still at a nice amplitude also. As long as my thoughts are correct on it moving along and not stalling... we should see a more wintry pattern for the second half of Feb. I will continue to monitor this whenever I can. I continue to see the AO going negative sometime in early Feb with the NAO going neutral to perhaps weakly negative as well. The PNA still looks positive just not as positive as it is right now which implies the STJ will be undercutting the blocking ridge over Canada down the road which we have mentioned several times before.

Great Post Les. This cold air masses are hard to move but once they get going they are hard to stop. That is long term models have problems in the timing. Sometime this week we will see the longer term models showing colder air for the country though they are already showing that in the west. I believe the next cold round is more centered over the east this time and more towards climo for February. Going to busy in terms of storms but again will we be able to cash in as I believe an early start to spring this year and after the second week of March looking at a milder than normal spring. Summer should continue the above normal temps because usually when you are coming out of a El Nino a hotter than normal summer has a higher chance.

Upcoming 500mb pattern for first week is a match (lag time) with phases 6/7 MJO for Feb. with a ridge in central NAmerica . I have it somewhere in my pics but haven’t located it yet

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Jan 28, 2024 9:10 am Upcoming 500mb pattern for first week is a match (lag time) with phases 6/7 MJO for Feb. with a ridge in central NAmerica . I have it somewhere in my pics but haven’t located it yet

I agree. We may see a small dip in temps around the 4-6th but that would be it. I expect a warm up again after that. Sometime in the 2/10 - 2/14 time frame is when I expect the pattern to change to a colder one.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 28, 2024 10:31 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Jan 28, 2024 9:10 am Upcoming 500mb pattern for first week is a match (lag time) with phases 6/7 MJO for Feb. with a ridge in central NAmerica . I have it somewhere in my pics but haven’t located it yet

I agree. We may see a small dip in temps around the 4-6th but that would be it. I expect a warm up again after that. Sometime in the 2/10 - 2/14 time frame is when I expect the pattern to change to a colder one.

Agree, I was figuring the first 10days near average mean to at times slightly above. Certainly don’t see arctic air mass during this time

Have seen this too often but we may end up with above average precip which is a given since we are almost twice the norm and maybe just maybe below normal on temps as we are .5 below at the moment and will come down to the wire

Well it tried to snow and yes I got about 2 minutes of pure snow before it mixed again.

Fun to watch the models with an upcoming pattern change. The gfs of course got warmer in the longer term and the CMC colder. Lets wait for the Euro. We often see this in later November when we are heading into winter and with the current pattern models must believe its late November. Going to take a few days before models can figure out how much cold we get the 1st 10 days of February and where that cold is coming from.

Would not take any storm the models show more than a few days out as correct. Will wait until mid-week to feel good about how this pattern change will develop. Many times you need a bigger storm to bring in the change so will watch that as well.