El Nino, The 2023-2024 Winter, and You!

[Bgoney]

IOD is mimicking 2019 weakening pace , although about a month or so later

IMG_0774.jpeg

[tron777]

The PDO is also dropping again but with such a sharp rise that we saw last week, it is in sort of a correction mode if you will so the drop is kind of to be expected IMO. We'll see how low it drops before rising again. Regardless, it's still a heck of rise from what we saw back in September when it was at a record low for an El Nino.

[Bgoney]

Looks like a +2c now fills the 3.4 region , but still an east base Nino

IMG_0780.png

IMG_0779.jpeg

[tpweather]

IOD is mimicking 2019 weakening pace , although about a month or so later



IMG_0774.jpeg

Exactly and the one big change is 2019 the start of an La Nina and this season the start of a El Nino. Trying to find info on this and limited but I have seen that a positive IOD does have different outcomes with a strong El Nino. Not sure about low to moderate but at the moment no doubt the weather has been different than 2019.

[tron777]

Looks like a +2c now fills the 3.4 region , but still an east base Nino

How long does this last and / or how much stronger does it get are the questions I have. I still feel that it won't get out of hand and even if it continues to warm, the background state still acts like a Nina IMO. It's a complex set up and kind of confusing at times with the conflicting signals we keep seeing. At least it is confusing to me sometimes anyway lol

[tpweather]

Looks like a +2c now fills the 3.4 region , but still an east base Nino

How long does this last and / or how much stronger does it get are the questions I have. I still feel that it won't get out of hand and even if it continues to warm, the background state still acts like a Nina IMO. It's a complex set up and kind of confusing at times with the conflicting signals we keep seeing. At least it is confusing to me sometimes anyway lol

Very confusing Les but interesting as well. Sometimes we don't know exactly what will be the main factor for a period of time. One huge item of course is blocking and where that blocking is located. I look at tons of info and then I try to see what is actually happening and does it make sense to some of the parameters we are looking at. Never going to be a perfect winter forecast around here and if so hats off because we have so many possible outcomes and we can end up with several weeks of all kinds of weather.

[tron777]

Great post Tim! That is 100% true, We always seem to have severe wx, warmth, cold, ice, snow, etc. Very rarely do we see wall to wall cold and snow from start to finish.

[tron777]

EPS Mean shows the PV strengthening in November which is expected as it usually develops this time of year going into the winter season. The below graph also shows the PV weakening in mid December. Do we see an SSW which is rare for December especially in an El Nino? A low chance IMO if one occurs at all. Anyway, I thought it was interesting and if this is correct, a weaker then normal PV is a good thing. Granted that doesn't mean we get cold. It could go to Siberia but if we continue to see periods of -EPO / -AO then we should see the cold on our side of the globe and with a +PNA the cold would be directed into the Central and Eastern US. Something to watch as we roll into December.

EPSMeanPV.png

[tpweather]

EPS Mean shows the PV strengthening in November which is expected as it usually develops this time of year going into the winter season. The below graph also shows the PV weakening in mid December. Do we see an SSW which is rare for December especially in an El Nino? A low chance IMO if one occurs at all. Anyway, I thought it was interesting and if this is correct, a weaker then normal PV is a good thing. Granted that doesn't mean we get cold. It could go to Siberia but if we continue to see periods of -EPO / -AO then we should see the cold on our side of the globe and with a +PNA the cold would be directed into the Central and Eastern US. Something to watch as we roll into December.


EPSMeanPV.png

Very interesting Les and have seen a few mets talking about a ssw event in December. Not sure how accurate any model is in showing a ssw. Do we need a ssw event to get cold and the answer is no but usually need such an event and have the cold directed towards us to have a longer lasting cold spell. If we can get one in early December and have it directed toward us in later Dec or early Jan would no doubt raise the chances for a decent winter with cold and yes snow. So I agree ssw are rare with and El Nino but again tropical system in the Atlantic were also known to be rather quiet in terms of storms and that has not been the case. Again I put a decent amount in the snowfall contest and one of the main reasons is I expect a rather early start to winter and that has not been the case for much of the past 20 years or so.

[tron777]

Tim... Typically you get a warm December with an El Nino. The last decade plus, the ENSO state has not mattered. We've had very warm Decembers regardless. So a cold and or snowier then normal December would be a nice change of pace and something we have not seen since probably since Dec 2010.

[tron777]

WAVE3's winter outlook:

https://www.wave3.com/2023/11/01/wave-w ... 2023-2024/

[Bgoney]

El Niño remained as a background and not a dominant factor for October. I do expect it to start having more influence after mid November

IMG_0790.jpeg

[tron777]

El Niño remained as a background and not a dominant factor for October. I do expect it to start having more influence after mid November

Totally agree! This is fantasy range for the EPS at 360 hours, but that is a classic El Nino look with the STJ undercutting the ridging across the north.

eps_z500a_namer_61.png

[Bgoney]

Forgot to post this yesterday

IMG_0785.jpeg

[tron777]

Definitely East Based for sure which we don't want to see. Hope to see that change in the next month. Even a blend of East based / Central based would be better then purely East based. I don't think that this will be a central based (Modiki) as some on the internet are believing. A basin wide event wouldn't even be as bad as an East based event. East based events usually mean mild temps and below avg snowfall for winter especially if this does turn out to be a strong El Nino. Moderate El Ninos aren't as bad. However, with the -QBO, -PDO (not as deeply negative as it once was) and the tendency for high latitude blocking, if we do continue to see the blocking in the winter season that is, it should help offset some of the East based Ninos effects. That is certainly going to be key for us to have a cold and snowy winter. We must continue to see the high latitude blocking.

[tpweather]

Good Evening and made it back to the balmy weather. Wausau ended up with 2.6 inches of snow yesterday which btw was a record for Halloween. The snow did melt off the pavement yesterday but this morning it was 17 and you could just feel the cold when snow is on the ground. Hopefully I can bring some of those snow records home.

Talking about El Nino and some items this summer and fall have shown El Nino effects but other times shown really just the opposite of what you would expect. That is why I believe many factors are going to weigh in on the winter forecast. I saw Brian's video for their winter forecast. I agreed 100p/c about severe weather in the southeast and I am especially worried about Florida this winter season and some decent tornado outbreaks.
The item they talked about with sea ice and I understand the concept of having that for colder air to develop but also the other side is places much further north each winter season in the past decade or so have been having higher than normal snowfall and though maybe not quite as important as sea ice but it does help with having a cold source because of the deeper snows further north. When I look at their maps and they are really just going with a typical El NIno that the NWS throws out and though at times the map may come true I believe much colder air from around the Mississippi River east will happen more often and for our area and winter that will end up near to below normal in temps but above normal in snow. Saying that I expect the southern plains to be quite wet and many systems will head to the southeast Atlantic but sometimes that moisture and warmth will work its way northeast and we have several overrunning systems which can be snow or ice. The pattern over the past 6-8 months has been for troughs in the east and if the mjo continues in its phase 7-1 or even 6-1 then we will have plenty to talk about. How much ridging in the west is key and will that be your normal back and forth or a more pronounced ridge that helps in developing the troughs in the east that we have seen much of this year.

This really is my winter forecast and I do believe a very snowy one indeed as I have over 37 inches locally. Again snow totals are almost impossible to forecast because you may get lucky one storm or miss out by 50 miles but the overall theme though imo is several chances of snow over 4 inches plus several clippers which if connected to the warmth that I believe will be in the southern plains we could get a few clippers that have snow totals over 4 inches but in a smaller area of course.

So really at the end of the day I am showing what I believe has happened sine the El Nino started back in the spring and it has been one of contrasts and sometimes looks dead on to past El Ninos and at other times looks nothing like an El Nino. Will one of those two patterns take hold and so far I have seen no signs either way. More thoughts on this to come but just a first glance of my thoughts on the upcoming season.

[tron777]

Wonderful post Tim! I'm glad that you had some time to hash out your prelim thoughts. Lots of conflicting signals that we have yet to resolve over the next month as has been discussed in this thread. Some of the November runs of the seasonal models will be coming out soon. The Can SIPS should have come out today but for whatever reason it's late.

The Euro Seasonal updated though. Below is the mean 500 MB pattern for DJF as well as 2M Temps and Precip.

EuroSeasonal500MB.png

EuroSeasonalTemps.png

EuroSeasonalPrecip.png

EDIT: Shoot... that might be the October run.

[winterstormjoe]

Good Evening and made it back to the balmy weather. Wausau ended up with 2.6 inches of snow yesterday which btw was a record for Halloween. The snow did melt off the pavement yesterday but this morning it was 17 and you could just feel the cold when snow is on the ground. Hopefully I can bring some of those snow records home.

Talking about El Nino and some items this summer and fall have shown El Nino effects but other times shown really just the opposite of what you would expect. That is why I believe many factors are going to weigh in on the winter forecast. I saw Brian's video for their winter forecast. I agreed 100p/c about severe weather in the southeast and I am especially worried about Florida this winter season and some decent tornado outbreaks.
The item they talked about with sea ice and I understand the concept of having that for colder air to develop but also the other side is places much further north each winter season in the past decade or so have been having higher than normal snowfall and though maybe not quite as important as sea ice but it does help with having a cold source because of the deeper snows further north. When I look at their maps and they are really just going with a typical El NIno that the NWS throws out and though at times the map may come true I believe much colder air from around the Mississippi River east will happen more often and for our area and winter that will end up near to below normal in temps but above normal in snow. Saying that I expect the southern plains to be quite wet and many systems will head to the southeast Atlantic but sometimes that moisture and warmth will work its way northeast and we have several overrunning systems which can be snow or ice. The pattern over the past 6-8 months has been for troughs in the east and if the mjo continues in its phase 7-1 or even 6-1 then we will have plenty to talk about. How much ridging in the west is key and will that be your normal back and forth or a more pronounced ridge that helps in developing the troughs in the east that we have seen much of this year.

This really is my winter forecast and I do believe a very snowy one indeed as I have over 37 inches locally. Again snow totals are almost impossible to forecast because you may get lucky one storm or miss out by 50 miles but the overall theme though imo is several chances of snow over 4 inches plus several clippers which if connected to the warmth that I believe will be in the southern plains we could get a few clippers that have snow totals over 4 inches but in a smaller area of course.

So really at the end of the day I am showing what I believe has happened sine the El Nino started back in the spring and it has been one of contrasts and sometimes looks dead on to past El Ninos and at other times looks nothing like an El Nino. Will one of those two patterns take hold and so far I have seen no signs either way. More thoughts on this to come but just a first glance of my thoughts on the upcoming season.

Hey Tim, I've went with 39 inches as I'm going with one big daddy (double digit snow storm) with some southern systems spreading moisture northward enough with cold air in place for a few inches here and there. I think there will be some clippers that will dig down into MO/western KY and TN that will curve NE and us a few of several inches. I admit that I have a lot of snow weenie bias in my thoughts, but what the heck!

[tpweather]

Hey Joe and always glad to see you post. I love your thoughts on the winter and I agree we are due for a big daddy. Mother Nature always balances things out and if she can do this from last year then we are in good shape. What I have loved so far is the troughs in the eastern 1/3 or so of the country have been able to move rather far south and during the winter that could help in getting some decent storms. I do believe its going to be stormy in the south and that is another reason I went higher.

[Bgoney]

ONI for ASO is 1.5

[tron777]

Here is a link to get the daily PDO index.

https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/

pdo.png

[Bgoney]

Speaking of sounding the same, the MJO remains in a state of Ho-Hummness, past , present and future . Brick wall remains in place for the foreseeable model future

[tron777]

The November run of the Euro Seasonal is out. Below are the individual months at 500 MB. December looks like a typical Nino to be with blocking showing up in Jan and Feb with March looking warm again as spring arrives. So in short if this is right, our best chances for wintry weather for be the second half of the winter. We have been seeing this a lot in recent winters regardless of the ENSO state. The last map is a blend of JFM with regards to the pressure pattern. You can see a nice -NAO in that last map.

EuroSeasonalDec.png

EuroSeasonalJan.png

EuroSeasonalFeb.png

EuroSeasonalMar.png

EuroSeasonal.jpg

[tpweather]

Thanks for the maps Les. What I like about the Euro seasonal is the winds when they come into the USA are slowing down compared to how they are over the pacific. This tells me some blocking is going on and this will also lead to a stormy USA. Hope what I am seeing is correct. That does not mean its all cold and snow but the main thing is stormy weather looks likely.

[tron777]

Thanks for the maps Les. What I like about the Euro seasonal is the winds when they come into the USA are slowing down compared to how they are over the pacific. This tells me some blocking is going on and this will also lead to a stormy USA. Hope what I am seeing is correct. That does not mean its all cold and snow but the main thing is stormy weather looks likely.

Correct Tim. December shows a +EPO / +NAO and a mild pattern due to the flow coming in from the Pacific flooding the CONUS with mild air. The STJ should be active leading to cooler conditions across the southern tier simply due to more clouds and rain. That is a typical El Nino look.

By Jan and Feb, the model shows blocking over the top with a -EPO / +PNA / -AO / -NAO setup with the STJ cutting underneath. The trough axis becomes more favor able for the Mid Atlantic versus the OV in Feb but looks more favorable for us in Jan. By March the ridging across the top is still there but the flow maybe mild from the Pacific again. Doesn't really matter since March is so far away still.