August 2023 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Looks like we will start August on a pleasant note with rain chances potentially returning by Thurs and Fri. So far, any big heat looks to remain over the Lower Plains and SW CONUS.

[tron777]

Not much going on rain wise from the 12Z GFS until this weekend. The boundary is too far to our SW for Thurs and Fri. It moves NE and gives us a better shot over the weekend.

[tpweather]

Not much going on rain wise from the 12Z GFS until this weekend. The boundary is too far to our SW for Thurs and Fri. It moves NE and gives us a better shot over the weekend.

Les I agree and next week as I mentioned before the trough in the east is trying to even out like I mentioned earlier and when that happens an if that is what happens you end up with near normal temps and some rain chances but systems will not stay around long so you will not see a 6 hour rain event but your normal early morning and then later afternoon thundershower and of course the coverage will be more spotty. Still not sold if that is what will happen because we know the pattern before the heat wave was a deeper trough in the east and these patterns do repeat. Hopefully we will no more once we get later in this week.

[tron777]

Not much going on rain wise from the 12Z GFS until this weekend. The boundary is too far to our SW for Thurs and Fri. It moves NE and gives us a better shot over the weekend.

Les I agree and next week as I mentioned before the trough in the east is trying to even out like I mentioned earlier and when that happens an if that is what happens you end up with near normal temps and some rain chances but systems will not stay around long so you will not see a 6 hour rain event but your normal early morning and then later afternoon thundershower and of course the coverage will be more spotty. Still not sold if that is what will happen because we know the pattern before the heat wave was a deeper trough in the east and these patterns do repeat. Hopefully we will no more once we get later in this week.

Looking like the 12Z Euro is in agreement as well with this line of thinking. I'll keep the chances low at less then 30% Thurs and Fri since the models could easily change with the location of said boundary. But for now the take away is for better chances this weekend versus the end of the work week.

[tron777]

Good morning all! 58 at CVG, 59 here this morning. How low did your hoods go? Today and tomorrow look great before the humidity begins to creep back up. Slim rain chances also towards the end of the week. This weekend still looking like the highest chances, and in particular Sunday now looks to be the day. OF course that can and will change as we get closer. Seeing the Upper 80s as our highest temps over the next week or so.

[tron777]

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and a little haze form the smoke but a wonderful August day. Still rather quiet over the next few days but just to the southwest of us a different story and some moderate to heavy rains over the next few days. This is a boundary from the heat to the south and the warm but pleasant weather to the northeast. The LLJ looks to be strong and the amount of moisture looks high so any training of storms could produce rainfall amounts easily over 3 inches and sure some areas over 5 inches. Maybe folks towards Louisville could get into some rain but not the heavy rainfall. Locally always can get a shower of thundershower but looks rather dry until later this weekend. Temps will rise slowly this week as will the humidity but nothing out of the ordinary for early August

[tron777]

81 again at CVG today, 82 here. Simply gorgeous! We should hit the mid 80s tomorrow but the humidity will still be low. That increases on Thursday along with that small rain chance. I don't see any widespread or heavy rains yet over the next week. Most of that stays to our SW in my opinion. Hopefully, we can manage 1/4" to 1/2" of rain thru this weekend. To me, that is best case scenario.

[Bgoney]

Quite the setup for training storms for southeastern Iowa and Missouri. A corridor of 5-8”+ in 36 hours would not surprise me one bit

[MVWxObserver]

Got to 82 at both CVG and CMH and 83 DAY.

[tron777]

Quite the setup for training storms for southeastern Iowa and Missouri. A corridor of 5-8”+ in 36 hours would not surprise me one bit

Totally agree. Radar loop shows that area getting slammed all night and it still is ongoing this morning. Meanwhile for us, the nice weather continues.

[tron777]

Another beaut today before the humidity starts to increase tomorrow. Slim rain chances. Sunday continues to look like the highest chance for rain for most folks.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and another beautiful day in store with just a few degrees warmer. The heavy rain continues to the west and as that heads east over the next day or so folks especially that live further south and west of CVG will need to watch out for some rain. Still a close call locally and these complexes or not easy to forecast. Still believe a shower or thundershower still possible on Thursday and the NAM model is showing a good dose later on Thursday while most of the other models have us on the northern edge with some showing nothing at all. The low pressure over the central plains is not bad for this time of year and the NAM keeps it strength as it crosses the Ohio Valley and that is why the heavier amounts.

Will need to look at more info today to see if the NAM is on to something with this system.

[tron777]

12Z HRRR keeps everything well SE of the area. The 12Z NAM on Thurs, clips CVG Land. Best rains still SW of us.

[tron777]

[tpweather]

12Z HRRR keeps everything well SE of the area. The 12Z NAM on Thurs, clips CVG Land. Best rains still SW of us.

No doubt the latest NAM went further south but what we have seen in the models in the recent month or so is every 12 hours they tend to switch back and forth on where the rains set up. This seems to happen with many systems and not sure what is in the models that make them change quite often. We see this more in the winter time but far less during the summer. The waves over the next few days like I mentioned are full of moisture so if you get in on one of these bands it can rain quite hard for a period of time. I still believe the most likely situation for us is a shower or thundershower on Thursday and then we see a band move through late Thursday and early Friday but it still looks like we are on the northeast edge so this could be where Wilmington,Ohio get zero and Warsaw,Ky gets over an 1 inch. That puts the local area in the 0-1 inch forecast and really that is just watching the radar later on Thursday. Good thing is we should see some high clouds today that keeps temps down by a degree or two and Thursday thicker clouds should arrive later in the day and this will also keep temps down a degree or two but the humidity should increase somewhat but nothing horrible. No extended heat in the forecast over the next few weeks and maybe we see a 89 or 90 ahead of a front but with the expected rains to the southwest this is sort of a border that protects us from the heat coming in from the southwest but it may get hotter in the southeast USA and that heat will try to move this way but already models show a few cold front moving in and more like late August than early August.

[MVWxObserver]

Quite the setup for training storms for southeastern Iowa and Missouri. A corridor of 5-8”+ in 36 hours would not surprise me one bit

Totally agree. Radar loop shows that area getting slammed all night and it still is ongoing this morning. Meanwhile for us, the nice weather continues.

And subsequent flood alerts from eastern MO to western KY. Some cousins of mine and their families included in and near the St Louis region.

[tron777]

12Z HRRR keeps everything well SE of the area. The 12Z NAM on Thurs, clips CVG Land. Best rains still SW of us.

No doubt the latest NAM went further south but what we have seen in the models in the recent month or so is every 12 hours they tend to switch back and forth on where the rains set up. This seems to happen with many systems and not sure what is in the models that make them change quite often. We see this more in the winter time but far less during the summer. The waves over the next few days like I mentioned are full of moisture so if you get in on one of these bands it can rain quite hard for a period of time. I still believe the most likely situation for us is a shower or thundershower on Thursday and then we see a band move through late Thursday and early Friday but it still looks like we are on the northeast edge so this could be where Wilmington,Ohio get zero and Warsaw,Ky gets over an 1 inch. That puts the local area in the 0-1 inch forecast and really that is just watching the radar later on Thursday. Good thing is we should see some high clouds today that keeps temps down by a degree or two and Thursday thicker clouds should arrive later in the day and this will also keep temps down a degree or two but the humidity should increase somewhat but nothing horrible. No extended heat in the forecast over the next few weeks and maybe we see a 89 or 90 ahead of a front but with the expected rains to the southwest this is sort of a border that protects us from the heat coming in from the southwest but it may get hotter in the southeast USA and that heat will try to move this way but already models show a few cold front moving in and more like late August than early August.

I'm kind of going with persistence here Tim. We have seen this same pattern time and time again this summer where the better rains have fallen to our West or SW. A lot of the time, storms were in a weakening phase as they headed in to our area so Western counties would get some rain, but folks out East like Bgoney were left high and dry. We absolutely need that boundary to be located further to the north for us to cash in. We'll have to wait and see but for now... my money is on low chance POPS for us with a higher chance for our forum coverage area on Sunday. I still like what I see in the data for Sunday as being our highest chance.

[tron777]

12z GFS also agrees, just barely clipping CVG with moisture on Thurs. I am still going with Sunday as our next chance for our local area on northbound. For tomorrow, I continue to expect the bulk of the rains to fall to our SW.

In the extended range, most of the models are continuing the same overall pattern of a ridge West / trough East (+PNA). Cold fronts will continue to dive in from the northwest. Overall temps will avg normal to below normal. If this pattern persists long enough, chances for any big time sustained summer heat will be slim. So some good news there for sure.

[tpweather]

I agree about the long term Les and really many times when you have a strengthening El Nino in the summer the August through October can see many more cold fronts than usual and less in the way of tropical activity near the USA. Again its only the 2nd day of August but like you mentioned getting long term heat is going to get tougher and tougher the more we head towards fall. Concerning Thursday and still believe you can get a shower of thundershower during the day but isolated and then with the wave pushing across the Ohio Valley a more widespread rain is likely. Yes we are on the northeast side and sticking to my 0-1 inch call locally and yes further northeast may see zero and folks to the southwest over 1 inch. Just to close of a call to say we don't have a chance for any 3-6 hour stretch of rainfall and that is why I try and tell folks just look at the radar on Thursday morning and if you see more rain in the Indy area then chances will go up but if the rainfall is located in southern Indiana then chances will be less.

[tron777]

I agree about the long term Les and really many times when you have a strengthening El Nino in the summer the August through October can see many more cold fronts than usual and less in the way of tropical activity near the USA. Again its only the 2nd day of August but like you mentioned getting long term heat is going to get tougher and tougher the more we head towards fall. Concerning Thursday and still believe you can get a shower of thundershower during the day but isolated and then with the wave pushing across the Ohio Valley a more widespread rain is likely. Yes we are on the northeast side and sticking to my 0-1 inch call locally and yes further northeast may see zero and folks to the southwest over 1 inch. Just to close of a call to say we don't have a chance for any 3-6 hour stretch of rainfall and that is why I try and tell folks just look at the radar on Thursday morning and if you see more rain in the Indy area then chances will go up but if the rainfall is located in southern Indiana then chances will be less.

Looks like we're definitely on the same page for the longer term, which is good. We are also in agreement on folks in our Northern and Eastern counties may get zero and folks to the SW will get more. That I am in agreement with and always have been. I think we differ slightly on the location of the cut off from heavy rains to little / no rain, but other then that, we are good to go here. I believe that the best rains tomorrow will be from the LOU area and points SW from there. For our counties SW of Cincinnati that we serve, I like chance POPS from say 30% at CVG to 60% as an example which are likely POPS as you get towards Madison, IN. Then, once you get North and East of CVG / Cincinnati, you drop off very quickly into the dry zone. Hopefully I have outlined my thought process and locations for tomorrow's forecast.

[tpweather]

Les we are on the same page but we are probably about 50 miles different on where some heavier rains may fall on Thursday. Sort of watching the radar and it seems to me the heaviest rains have shifted a hair further northeast than models were showing. Again this could just be a short term shift or do we see this continue later today and overnight. Still have some decent heat in the southern plains and its early August so I tend to forecast a little further north than models show plus with a low pressure that may stay the same strength I can see the rain shield a tad further north. Again we are only talking 50 miles but it could mean the difference between a dry Thursday for somebody or a nice light to moderate rain at times.

[tpweather]

At 2pm we are 80 degrees. Temps have been slowed down by the higher clouds by a degree or two and the dew point only 60 so a beautiful early August day. Probably get a few more degrees before topping out between 82-84.

[tron777]

Les we are on the same page but we are probably about 50 miles different on where some heavier rains may fall on Thursday. Sort of watching the radar and it seems to me the heaviest rains have shifted a hair further northeast than models were showing. Again this could just be a short term shift or do we see this continue later today and overnight. Still have some decent heat in the southern plains and its early August so I tend to forecast a little further north than models show plus with a low pressure that may stay the same strength I can see the rain shield a tad further north. Again we are only talking 50 miles but it could mean the difference between a dry Thursday for somebody or a nice light to moderate rain at times.

No doubt Tim. With this set up, just like with snow in the winter, the cut off will be sharp and steep. We can agree on that 100%. All we differ on as you mentioned is the location. I want to be wrong since we need the rain. I'm watching the radar loop right now as I write this post and you are correct, it is definitely trying to push further NE then what the models showed. However, it is weakening and "drying up" if you will as it pushes into our drier airmass away from the deeper moisture source, IMO that has been the entire problem for us. We'll just have to wait and see how things look in the morning. That help us better pin point the location.

[tron777]

12Z Euro also barely clipping CVG tomorrow with the rain shield. I still like our chances on Sunday with the next significant cold front that will press into the area. We'll need to figure out the timing of course. Are the better POPs coming Sunday during the day or overnight into Monday? Those are the forecast tweaks we can make when we get closer to the weekend.

Basically to summarize my thinking...

Thurs - Chance for rain for CVG Land, heaviest falls SW of the Metro. Folks NE of Cincy likely staying dry
Fri - Most folks should remain dry with just a slim chance at a t-storm - 20%-30%
Sat - Dry for all areas - warmest day of the period upper 80s
Sun / Mon - Likely POPS at some point with a cold front, will need to figure out the timing when we get closer.