Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2022-2023

[tron777]

Sorry Bo / All... See if this link works. Thanks!


https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?res ... lQKP_VjqTo

[tpweather]

Good Morning and this topic will start to get really busy as we move into November. There is so much info that flows out this time of year concerning the upcoming winter. NOAA throws out their annual forecast which you might as well just flush it down the toilet. I tend to follow several met's that I feel confident about their forecasting skills. I should have a forecast out by Friday and its sad but true that you can throw out a forecast that ends up with the amount of snow and how the temps will do you predicted but wrong with how the winter overall played out.

The only thing I feel confident about is an early start to winter. Way to many signs show this and models one week will show this and the next week we are a blow torch so I play very little attention to longer term forecasts from the models because they tend to be horrible. I have noticed that some met's are talking about how the coldest or air compared to normal is on this side of the globe and that is true but they are just starting to mention this and we have been talking about for awhile. This is important but also need to keep up with the ongoing changes as well. Siberia especially the western area has got colder over this weekend and starting to get towards normal for them and most likely added snow as helped and temps are starting to tank as usual. BTW central and eastern Alaska has got a nice cold shot in the works as well and that makes sense with the trough over that area and the western 1/3 of the mainland USA. Nice to see cold air building but we need blocking to bring that cold this far south. So far this autumn we have had some nice blocking which has help getting us some nice cold shots this fall. That has not been the norm over the past 10 years or so and I believe a sign we may see more in the way of blocking this winter. Okay enough for my brief post this morning lol.

[tron777]

Blocking is key esp in the EPO domain. A -PNA can work if it undercuts the ridge over Eastern AK / NW Canada, but yeah the Pacific pattern is more important then what the NAO does. Yes, a -NAO is good to slow the pattern down to allow for bigger and more phasing systems, but I think it is more important for the East Coast then the Ohio Valley. So we'll see if that -EPO on the modeling I talked about last week comes to fruition or not in the longer term. If it's the usual head fake then you know what to expect. But if it's real, the early start to winter call come December would be alive and perhaps, doing well!

[snowbo]

Sorry Bo / All... See if this link works. Thanks!


https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?res ... lQKP_VjqTo

Thanks Les!

[airwolf76]

Haven't looked into things much but me early thoughts are we may get off to a fairly early start to winter, I think we see some cold &snow in early December if not sooner this year. the worst of winter I think will occur in Dec and Jan , I have no thoughts in the second half yet.

[tron777]

BG's Winter Outlook from WAVE3 came out last night:

https://www.wave3.com/2022/11/01/wave-w ... 2022-2023/

[tron777]

What ranks as #1? 2010-2011 Also close to 2020. 2020-2011 and 2020-2021 are probably the top 2 analogs right now. Granted 2010-2011 was a strong La Nina but somehow, everything went right and we had the great December and truly was a nice winter as a whole esp December and January. But, no two winters are alike and no two Nina's act the same way or produce the same results. Anyway, we'll see. If the -EPO holds, that's good. Would really like to either see the PNA cooperate and remain positive or NAO / AO go negative. -EPO is important don't get me wrong. Extremely important!

[Bgoney]

Region 1.2 down even lower, and those waters will be feeding 3.4 in the coming weeks , so , any significant weakening of Lanina is a ways off still.

nino12.png

[tron777]

Region 1.2 down even lower, and those waters will be feeding 3.4 in the coming weeks , so , any significant weakening of Lanina is a ways off still.

nino12.png

I was always thinking December for it to begin weakening. Didn't you say the same thing?

[Bgoney]

Region 1.2 down even lower, and those waters will be feeding 3.4 in the coming weeks , so , any significant weakening of Lanina is a ways off still.

nino12.png

I was always thinking December for it to begin weakening. Didn't you say the same thing?

Yea I think so, easterlies are still there, but not basin wide and are closer to normal , so you have to think that the process is in progress, just will take time to show up in the numbers and atmosphere

[tron777]

Region 1.2 down even lower, and those waters will be feeding 3.4 in the coming weeks , so , any significant weakening of Lanina is a ways off still.

nino12.png

I was always thinking December for it to begin weakening. Didn't you say the same thing?

Yea I think so, easterlies are still there, but not basin wide and are closer to normal , so you have to think that the process is in progress, just will take time to show up in the numbers and atmosphere

Exactly. It could be a month from now before we truly see the SST's begin to rise more noticeably.

[Phr0z3n]

Some really interesting features are taking place or are getting ready to take place. We’re already seeing a reversal of the arctic zonal winds between .4 and 2 hPa. This will in turn split the polar vortex in the latter half of this month and has been modeled well at 10mb in the arctic stratosphere. Most models including the euro weeklies have been picking up on some type of polar vortex split forthcoming.

282DD5FB-BEA4-4B8D-B69E-1C0F5503B558.png

I’m also loving the Alaskan block and Greenland block already establishing themselves.

54E81AF2-F309-43C8-9BB5-9D10C8236CE8.jpeg

It does truly look more and more evident to an early start to winter. I haven’t checked wheeler plots but in the months coming up we need to watch the tropical convective forcing by mjo waves as the La Niña starts to fade later this winter. This will truly be interesting to see unfold.

[Phr0z3n]

I also wanted to point out how far south the daughter vortice gets over Canada.

487B6378-DD87-4CE0-A1AB-EC8885E4A098.png

Models have been showing this for sometime now and if this were to happen teen lows would not be out of question with massive lake effect snows possible. That’s if the propagating warmth can mix down.

[tron777]

The coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere is on our side on the globe and will remain so as long as the model depiction unfolds. Snow cover looking good over Western Canada and NW US. Need that to continue building more SE ibn time which it will.

Snowcover.gif

Per Rutgers snow lab, we are above avg in snow cover in Western Canada and Western US which is off to a fine start.

Rutgers.PNG

[tpweather]

I also wanted to point out how far south the daughter vortice gets over Canada.
487B6378-DD87-4CE0-A1AB-EC8885E4A098.png
Models have been showing this for sometime now and if this were to happen teen lows would not be out of question with massive lake effect snows possible. That’s if the propagating warmth can mix down.

Great posts as usual and love the info you throw out. Normally when we see the PV split it takes some time for the colder air to advance into the lower latitudes. So does this split provide the cold over the next few weeks or is it when this split happens does it bring another bout of cold air in December and early January. I am such an amateur on this topic and try and learn more each year but I know models have problems with this during many winters and my guess is because the signal is not strong enough to support a PV split. This season maybe the support for the PV split is greater and models are doing a better job.

[tron777]

I also wanted to point out how far south the daughter vortice gets over Canada.
487B6378-DD87-4CE0-A1AB-EC8885E4A098.png
Models have been showing this for sometime now and if this were to happen teen lows would not be out of question with massive lake effect snows possible. That’s if the propagating warmth can mix down.

Great posts as usual and love the info you throw out. Normally when we see the PV split it takes some time for the colder air to advance into the lower latitudes. So does this split provide the cold over the next few weeks or is it when this split happens does it bring another bout of cold air in December and early January. I am such an amateur on this topic and try and learn more each year but I know models have problems with this during many winters and my guess is because the signal is not strong enough to support a PV split. This season maybe the support for the PV split is greater and models are doing a better job.

If the PV does split... and if you tie in the MJO potentially getting back to phase 8 in early December (see my post in the Nov thread). Anyway, should both of these things happen, we may see a fun period in December!

[tron777]

JMA looks like it wats to center the trough on the East Coast for December.

JMADec.jpg

[tpweather]

Good Morning and Happy Thanksgiving. This post is what I can see happening in December as met winter starts. With the recent warm Decembers my guess is the coldest 3 months are Dec 7th-Mar 7th. Models will be my first topic and a big tool to use in forecasting weather. Yes I use them more these days but sometimes I am not sure it helps in my forecasting. I am more a pattern person and one that looks at current conditions in developing a forecast and then look at the models. The models can make my thoughts seem good or sometimes completely 180 of what I believe is going to happen.

Time to look around the world and how what is developing can give us some clues of what may happen in December. Eastern Asia is starting to get stormier and yes eastern Siberia is finally getting some cold nearer normal for them after a very mild but snowy mid-November. When this happens we try and look 2-3 weeks down the road and that is when the eastern USA tends to repeat the pattern in eastern Asia.

Northern Canada has been cold this Autumn and is building once again but much of the cold this time is headed for western Canada,western USA and the panhandle of Alaska. The mainland of Alaska will get cold but more normal type of cold. When I see this happening I see good things in terms of colder weather for the eastern half of the USA but it takes time and though I sort of gave into the models in getting this type of weather here in early Dec I must back off and my thoughts of week 3 and beyond looks much better in terms of winter weather.

Can we get snow before that and sure but usually with the upcoming pattern winter weather stays to our west and sure once in awhile a front comes through and changes the rain to snow on the back end of a storm but very seldom do we get any snows that would cause problems. So we start out mild and then a storm comes through with rain ending as snow looks like the set up over the next 2-3 weeks.

The Polar Vortex and will it get stronger over the next week or so and I believe yes is the answer. When that happens we need some way to disturb the vortex and sometimes this is a split and cold air heads rather far south but exactly where the cold goes is something very hard to predict. What we had in mid-November was a stretching of the Polar Vortex and we just happened to be in the correct place to get cold. This kept us cold for about 10 days but with little in the way of snow in the USA besides around the lakes this cold has ended

I will end this because so much more involved and I just keep watching the weather around the world to give me an overall pattern I see and how that can affect the eastern half of the USA. So after studying the weather this morning I believe it will be at least week 3 of December before we truly get into a decent winter weather pattern.

[airwolf76]

had a chance to look things over. with the fall being average for the most part I expect early winter ( December ) to be an average month overall with the second half of the month being more cold and snowy then the first half. January IMO could end up being very cold I am expecting a very below avg temps for January with possible severe arctic outbreaks. a February thaw and then a return to more cold in March with average snowfall. These are my initial thoughts on the upcoming winter so far.

[tron777]

had a chance to look things over. with the fall being average for the most part I expect early winter ( December ) to be an average month overall with the second half of the month being more cold and snowy then the first half. January IMO could end up being very cold I am expecting a very below avg temps for January with possible severe arctic outbreaks. a February thaw and then a return to more cold in March with average snowfall. These are my initial thoughts on the upcoming winter so far.

That's a nice call Charles. A blend of La Nina and blocking all rolled into one with your thoughts there. I like it a lot! Here's to verification!