Absolute Vorticity

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
128 PM EDT Sun Mar 31 2024

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ042-051>056-060>065-
070>074-077>082-088-011730-
Wayne-Fayette-Union-Franklin-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-
Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-
Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Darke-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Licking-
Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-
Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
128 PM EDT Sun Mar 31 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL 8 PM TUESDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Indiana,
southeast Indiana, northeast Kentucky, northern Kentucky, central
Ohio, south central Ohio, southwest Ohio and west central Ohio.

DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and storms are expected tonight, with small hail and heavy
rain being the primary threats.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

Flood Watch

Additional rounds of storms are expected Monday through Tuesday evening. Some of these storms may be strong to severe, with large hail and damaging winds being the primary severe threats. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, especially Tuesday afternoon.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed, especially Monday afternoon through
Tuesday afternoon.

$$

----

00z NAM continues the very aggressive look. Most models put the tri-state near the triple point.

I mentioned this in my post on FB but if these trends continue I wouldn’t be surprised to see some of the area eventually upgraded to a MDT risk.

Attached is the 00z NAM UH tracks. Signal is growing for a strong tornado or two.

06z HRRR has the front getting further north today thus increasing our severe threat. SPC agrees and nudged the risk further north to cover the entire tri-state.

Good morning all and a busy weather week for us is ahead. Periods of rain and storms today and tomorrow followed by light rain and much cooler temps for Wed and Thurs. Then we bounce back up for Fri and the upcoming weekend. We have some breathing and relaxation room ahead but we have a few busy days in front of us to get through first.

For this morning, no issues! Everything is north of us at the present time. This afternoon and evening though is when our next round is poised to come in. We will probably do the same thing tomorrow as well. Slight risk today, enhanced tomorrow and a flood watch for both days is also in effect. As we've discussed... large hail, strong winds, and a few tornadoes are all on the table. 0.35" at CVG going into today's action.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 01, 2024 4:33 am Good morning all and a busy weather week for us is ahead. Periods of rain and storms today and tomorrow followed by light rain and much cooler temps for Wed and Thurs. Then we bounce back up for Fri and the upcoming weekend. We have some breathing and relaxation room ahead but we have a few busy days in front of us to get through first.

For this morning, no issues! Everything is north of us at the present time. This afternoon and evening though is when our next round is poised to come in. We will probably do the same thing tomorrow as well. Slight risk today, enhanced tomorrow and a flood watch for both days is also in effect. As we've discussed... large hail, strong winds, and a few tornadoes are all on the table. 0.35" at CVG going into today's action.

06z HRRR came in really aggressive as well for tomorrow matching the NAM. If these trends continue that ENH will need to be tugged north, and maybe even a MDT introduced for some areas. If that were to happen it would be in an update tomorrow.

Today and overnight



Ohio River Vicinity
Supercells from Illinois may continue east along the warm front into the evening across southern Indiana and potentially southern Ohio. Additional storms may also develop along this frontal zone with a primary threat of large hail. Weaker instability/shear should limit the overall threat from these storms compared to farther west. However, moderate instability and strong shear will support a threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado.

Overnight, a cluster of storms is expected to approach from the west. The overnight environment will continue to support a severe threat with 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear in excess of 50 knots. There is still considerable uncertainty how this cluster will evolve. A cluster of supercells would pose a threat for all severe weather hazards, while a more organized MCS may support a greater severe wind and QLCS tornado threat.

..Bentley/Darrow.. 04/01/2024


NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

The severe parameters for later today and tonight have steadily grown over the recent model runs and also from the current surface and upper air observations for the region. Be aware!!

If you noticed in the post above , SPC plans to update the day one outlook by mid morning , probably after their assessment of the 12z balloon data. Usually a good sign of an increased urgency

ILN has a couple of nice write up's. This one is for the 25th Anniv of the Blue Ash TOR. This is the one that got Trev's hood.

https://www.weather.gov/iln/BlueAshAnniversary


Then, ILN also has the 50th Anniv write up of the Super Outbreak of April 1974.


https://www.weather.gov/iln/19740403


This ought to get people in the right frame of mind for the weather today and tomorrow.

HRRR continuing to show supercells (one large one in particular) in the Cincinnati area. ILN noted this as well. STP is increasing as well. May see an enhanced upgrade today for the area.

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Apr 01, 2024 4:40 am

06z HRRR came in really aggressive as well for tomorrow matching the NAM. If these trends continue that ENH will need to be tugged north, and maybe even a MDT introduced for some areas. If that were to happen it would be in an update tomorrow.

So not a good day for me to be super busy at work! LOL Very ominous signs on the NAM. HRRR and SREF forecasts later today and esp tomorrow. Will be curious to see if the 12z suite continues this trend, and if so I agree a MOD risk will likely be needed esp tomorrow.

3Z SREF's significant tornado ingredients map has 60% exactly where the SPC has the enhanced risk drawn for tomorrow afternoon. 9Z SREF is running now so let's see what we get here shortly with the new data.

9Z SREF run is in and basically I am not seeing much change for tomorrow. I wonder if the enhanced risk should be drawn a bit northward and a mod risk introduced where the current enhanced risk is, for example. It'll be interesting to see future SPC updates. For now... we watch and wait to see how this afternoon and evening transpires then, again overnight into early tomorrow morning, followed by a third round Tues afternoon and evening. I think we have a chance at 2 or 3 rounds.

Day one update hot off the presses






Lower Missouri Valley to Ohio Valley
Multiple episodes of strong-severe thunderstorm development are expected this afternoon through tonight, each capable of all severe hazards. The distribution of severe weather over this corridor may be quite non-uniform/clustered, as mesoscale convective processes and boundaries evolve. Strong tornadoes may occur over parts of MO into central/southern IL while the afternoon/evening CAPE/shear parameter space and frontal proximity encourage potential development of at least a couple long-lasting supercells. Severe to isolated giant hail also is possible, especially from discrete supercells the western portion over MO/IL containing steepest lapse rates, greatest CAPE, and similarly favorable vertical wind profiles as the southern Plains area.

Moist advection should quickly boost boundary-layer mixing ratios and dewpoints today, with surface dewpoints in the 60s common along and south of the warm front by midafternoon. Peak/preconvective MLCAPE should reach 2000-2500 J/kg south of the warm front over parts of MO/IL/IN, diminishing to 1000-1500 J/kg from the northeastern KY/southern OH area eastward. Effective-shear magnitudes should range from near 60 kt over MO to 40-50 kt in eastern parts of the outlook. An MCS may evolve this evening from convection over MO and sweep east-northeastward on either side of the warm front, reaching parts of IN/OH/northern KY late tonight before weakening. Though moving into an airmass that will be stabilizing near the surface – with time and eastward extent – such a complex may have enough forced ascent and downward momentum transfer behind that to maintain organized wind-damage potential over the Ohio Valley tonight.

..Edwards/Leitman.. 04/01/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

SPC now has Cincinnati in an enhanced risk for later today. Wind got upped to 30%. Hail is still at 15% and TOR still at 5%.


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Discussion for the OV:

...Lower Missouri Valley to Ohio Valley...
Multiple episodes of strong-severe thunderstorm development are
expected this afternoon through tonight, each capable of all severe
hazards. The distribution of severe weather over this corridor may
be quite non-uniform/clustered, as mesoscale convective processes
and boundaries evolve. Strong tornadoes may occur over parts of MO
into central/southern IL while the afternoon/evening CAPE/shear
parameter space and frontal proximity encourage potential
development of at least a couple long-lasting supercells.
Severe to isolated giant hail also is possible, especially from
discrete supercells the western portion over MO/IL containing
steepest lapse rates, greatest CAPE, and similarly favorable
vertical wind profiles as the southern Plains area.

Moist advection should quickly boost boundary-layer mixing ratios
and dewpoints today, with surface dewpoints in the 60s common along
and south of the warm front by midafternoon. Peak/preconvective
MLCAPE should reach 2000-2500 J/kg south of the warm front over
parts of MO/IL/IN, diminishing to 1000-1500 J/kg from the
northeastern KY/southern OH area eastward. Effective-shear
magnitudes should range from near 60 kt over MO to 40-50 kt in
eastern parts of the outlook. An MCS may evolve this evening from
convection over MO and sweep east-northeastward on either side of
the warm front, reaching parts of IN/OH/northern KY late tonight
before weakening. Though moving into an airmass that will be
stabilizing near the surface -- with time and eastward extent --
such a complex may have enough forced ascent and downward momentum
transfer behind that to maintain organized wind-damage potential
over the Ohio Valley tonight.

Good Morning and everyone has covered the severe threat this morning and wonderful posts. The flood watch and imo this will be a more isolated flood watch but hard to pinpoint an exact area. This is not the flood watch you see in spring where the snow melt has led to above normal water in streams,creeks and rivers but a watch where flash flooding can occur in an isolated area in a short amount of time. We do have some vegetation already and this helps to a certain extent as well. Dew points still not bad rather far south but along the gulf coast we are getting near 70 and will watch this later today.

The boundary is pretty much on top of us as we speak. Juicier dews and some weak CAPE exists just to our SW. I would look for storms to fire up this afternoon along the boundary. As usual, we shall see how things go. It's never a slam dunk in our area as we all know.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 01, 2024 9:23 am The boundary is pretty much on top of us as we speak. Juicier dews and some weak CAPE exists just to our SW. I would look for storms to fire up this afternoon along the boundary. As usual, we shall see how things go. It's never a slam dunk in our area as we all know.

Good Morning Les and the major point you made was the boundary is on top of us. Even out to the west dew points in the low 60's but do we get that surge on Tuesday where they head towards 70 and if that happens Tuesday afternoon could be quite busy. Yes it can rain anytime with that boundary and if this afternoon the sun decides to come out for an extended time this can lead to thundershowers forming. The major piece of energy is still well to the west and will start to affect the central and southern plains today and that heads eastward for us on Tuesday.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 01, 2024 9:23 am The boundary is pretty much on top of us as we speak. Juicier dews and some weak CAPE exists just to our SW. I would look for storms to fire up this afternoon along the boundary. As usual, we shall see how things go. It's never a slam dunk in our area as we all know.

The Today Show did a story from Cincinnati this morning on weather so will turn out to be Sunny and 70 next 3 days.

Trentonwx06 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 01, 2024 9:32 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 01, 2024 9:23 am The boundary is pretty much on top of us as we speak. Juicier dews and some weak CAPE exists just to our SW. I would look for storms to fire up this afternoon along the boundary. As usual, we shall see how things go. It's never a slam dunk in our area as we all know.

The Today Show did a story from Cincinnati this morning on weather so will turn out to be Sunny and 70 next 3 days.

LOL. My wife saw that and was not sure if that was because of current set up or the 50 year mark of the 1974 Tornado Outbreak which will be on Wednesday

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Apr 01, 2024 9:30 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 01, 2024 9:23 am The boundary is pretty much on top of us as we speak. Juicier dews and some weak CAPE exists just to our SW. I would look for storms to fire up this afternoon along the boundary. As usual, we shall see how things go. It's never a slam dunk in our area as we all know.

Good Morning Les and the major point you made was the boundary is on top of us. Even out to the west dew points in the low 60's but do we get that surge on Tuesday where they head towards 70 and if that happens Tuesday afternoon could be quite busy. Yes it can rain anytime with that boundary and if this afternoon the sun decides to come out for an extended time this can lead to thundershowers forming. The major piece of energy is still well to the west and will start to affect the central and southern plains today and that heads eastward for us on Tuesday.

Good morning Tim! Having that boundary so close to us... it will be interesting to see how far north it goes for the low pressure to ride along tomorrow afternoon and evening. Along the path of the low will be the triple point and that is an area that can turn dangerous with tornadic development. That is what we need to watch for tomorrow.

For today and tonight..,. we are watching the boundary for additional development later this afternoon. If that fails, then after midnight, we should see a possible MCS come in and that will dictate how tomorrow morning unfolds. What happens tonight will no doubt impact tomorrow.

Trentonwx06 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 01, 2024 9:32 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 01, 2024 9:23 am The boundary is pretty much on top of us as we speak. Juicier dews and some weak CAPE exists just to our SW. I would look for storms to fire up this afternoon along the boundary. As usual, we shall see how things go. It's never a slam dunk in our area as we all know.

The Today Show did a story from Cincinnati this morning on weather so will turn out to be Sunny and 70 next 3 days.

Of course! Just like when Cantore comes for a snow storm and we get nothing!

A very long video from BG today:

12Z NAM still looks ominous tomorrow afternoon. 3K NAM is even worse. Check out the sounding near CVG valid around 4pm tomorrow.