November 2021 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and agree that we need the mjo to head into phase 6 and 7 and like you mentioned continue on into the colder phase of 8,1 and 2. What you don't want to see this time of year is the mjo heading into phases 3-5 and that is not the case. Next week I would expect Fairbanks to see temps in the -40 - -50 range which is cold but again not record breaking. This kind of cold is storing up and needed for us to get cold and we just need that highway to bring the cold down.

[tron777]

Good Morning Les and agree that we need the mjo to head into phase 6 and 7 and like you mentioned continue on into the colder phase of 8,1 and 2. What you don't want to see this time of year is the mjo heading into phases 3-5 and that is not the case. Next week I would expect Fairbanks to see temps in the -40 - -50 range which is cold but again not record breaking. This kind of cold is storing up and needed for us to get cold and we just need that highway to bring the cold down.

Exactly... that's what I am waiting on right there.

[Bgoney]

MJO has been moving through quicksand and now entering molasses, I just don't see it being a factor in the overall pattern through the first week of December as far as influencing a much colder air mass for the OV. The PV remains strong and looks to continue into the first week of Dec.

[tron777]

MJO has been moving through quicksand and now entering molasses, I just don't see it being a factor in the overall pattern through the first week of December as far as influencing a much colder air mass for the OV. The PV remains strong and looks to continue into the first week of Dec.

It's causing a mild pattern IMO. AO / NAO should rise more towards neutral if not weakly positive. +EPO which keeps AK cold and keeps the PV strong. -PNA as well. After the first week of Dec, we'll see what happens. Hope to see some changes after that.

[cloudy72]

0.52" on Sunday.

[snowbo]

Good Morning and the clouds kept temps up a few degrees last night. How cold do we get on Tuesday morning and will there be a few upper teens in those normally colder areas? I know folks in the weather world always get nervous when there is very little snow to talk about but in reality its only November 22nd. We are fine here and if two months from today and the same pattern is in place then I worry. The place that really needs to worry is the Rocky mountains. November and March are the two biggest months in terms of snowfall. The ski resorts are not looking good as the southwest ridge is keeping them high and dry.

Looked at the models this morning and my clipper is nowhere it be found for next weekend. Give it a few more days and see if that push of warmer air helps in creating some snow before it gets mild. Next week should be the calm before the storm as we could see a few days in the low 60's and no rainfall but expect storminess and much colder temps arriving for the 1st full week of December. That is when the polar jet and stj should start to work together and change the mild and dry landscape to a much colder and wet landscape for the eastern 2/3rds of the country. Usually this will start with a bigger storm in the central USA that throws snow into the northern and central plains and upper midwest with a strong cold front and then will their be a second system to follow up that can bring snows further south and east.

The fall season has been a good 7-10 days behind normal in terms of snow and cold this season as we saw in Canada just a month ago folks were wondering if the snow and cold was ever going to arrive and it has with a bang as temps were some 15-20 degrees above normal in early November to well below normal.

Still very excited about and nice start to winter which includes snow and cold and the current set up is just fine. A week from today I would love to see the extended forecast and I believe for us winter lovers that we will be very happy.

Saw this tweet today which kind of backs up your point Tim. They're talking east coast but I think the same applies here.


NY NJ PA Weather @nynjpaweather·1h
For those worried if this means a snowless winter, all I can tell you is that every time it snows in November, we end up with a boring winter. There are a variety of reason why, but that’s the experience. So frankly, if you love active winters, you don’t want snow in November.

[snowbo]

LOVE reminiscing about these days. Tom Skilling's weather blog from yesterday:

Dear Tom,
Could you give us some details on the city’s incredible 43-day cold spell
from December 1976, to February 1977?
Rick

Dear Rick,
Here are the frigid details. On December 27, 1976, the temperature dropped
below freezing at 1 p.m. and remained below freezing for 1,053 consecutive
hours before reaching 32 degrees at 10 a.m. Feb. 9, 1977. That streak
translated into 43 days and 21 hours of subfreezing temperatures. The
highest temperatures observed during that prolonged cold spell were a trio
of 31-degree highs Feb. 2-4. There were also 17 days with subzero low
temperatures during that period. The coldest day was Jan. 16, with a high of
minus-7 and a low of minus-19. The streak finally ended with a flourish of
warmth- Feb. 9 with a high of 42 degrees, 47 the next day and a “balmy” 52
on Feb. 11, and on February 23, the mercury climbed to 60 degrees.

[tron777]

Bo... if I recall, even Cincinnati stayed below freezing for a large chunk of January. Pretty remarkable indeed!

[tron777]

Not seeing much change on a lot of the 12Z models this afternoon. Next chance for rain is on Thanksgiving Day and we may end as some flakes Thurs night. Cold and dry after that. The clipper Tim mentioned is very weak and sheared out so no precip is expected over the weekend at this time. That should pretty much end November.

I am expecting mild conditions to prevail for the first week of Dec with two cold fronts to deal with. The second one near the end of week 1 in December appears to be the strongest one at this point in time to deliver another blast of cold air to the region.

[Bgoney]

Bo... if I recall, even Cincinnati stayed below freezing for a large chunk of January. Pretty remarkable indeed!

Screenshot_20211122-135214_Chrome.jpg

[tron777]

Thanks Bgoney... what a run!

Tim... the Euro brought your little clipper back.

[tpweather]

The good old days. The boys and I had built a camp to keep us off the streets lol. Nice camp with a fireplace which was needed. I owned 2 pair of jeans,3 tee-shirts and a long jean jacket but was never cold. I think about all the material things available today and nothing wrong with that at all but back then most folks had very little in the way of clothes, one tv and one car for the whole family. Big boom in the 80's and 90's that moved folks up from low-middle income to middle income. What a great country and all you need is hard work and money management to enjoy a comfortable living.

[Bgoney]

The good old days. The boys and I had built a camp to keep us off the streets lol. Nice camp with a fireplace which was needed. I owned 2 pair of jeans,3 tee-shirts and a long jean jacket but was never cold. I think about all the material things available today and nothing wrong with that at all but back then most folks had very little in the way of clothes, one tv and one car for the whole family. Big boom in the 80's and 90's that moved folks up from low-middle income to middle income. What a great country and all you need is hard work and money management to enjoy a comfortable living.

Lol Tim, did we grow up in the same house? And Wouldn't change a thing!!!

[tpweather]

Thanks Bgoney... what a run!

Tim... the Euro brought your little clipper back.

Hey Les and thanks for the update. You know I go with patterns and when I see warm air trying to overtake cold air in the late fall-early spring usually their is some precip to go along with the pattern. As we know clippers are fast moving systems and you need to be in the correct spot to get some snow but from what I saw the past coupe of days I still believe somewhere in the Ohio Valley some snow should fall and accumulate. Exact spot is way to early but I thought it was important enough to put in my forecast. I just checked the Euro and that is a nice spot for a low and again don't take that exact location for the low this far in advance but I believe something is brewing for that time period.

[tron777]

Thanks Bgoney... what a run!

Tim... the Euro brought your little clipper back.

Hey Les and thanks for the update. You know I go with patterns and when I see warm air trying to overtake cold air in the late fall-early spring usually their is some precip to go along with the pattern. As we know clippers are fast moving systems and you need to be in the correct spot to get some snow but from what I saw the past coupe of days I still believe somewhere in the Ohio Valley some snow should fall and accumulate. Exact spot is way to early but I thought it was important enough to put in my forecast. I just checked the Euro and that is a nice spot for a low and again don't take that exact location for the low this far in advance but I believe something is brewing for that time period.

Euro so far is the only model to bring it back so we'll see if it can gain further support.

[tpweather]

Thanks Bgoney... what a run!

Tim... the Euro brought your little clipper back.

Hey Les and thanks for the update. You know I go with patterns and when I see warm air trying to overtake cold air in the late fall-early spring usually their is some precip to go along with the pattern. As we know clippers are fast moving systems and you need to be in the correct spot to get some snow but from what I saw the past coupe of days I still believe somewhere in the Ohio Valley some snow should fall and accumulate. Exact spot is way to early but I thought it was important enough to put in my forecast. I just checked the Euro and that is a nice spot for a low and again don't take that exact location for the low this far in advance but I believe something is brewing for that time period.

Euro so far is the only model to bring it back so we'll see if it can gain further support.

As you know Les I will hit on some of these during the winter but also miss the pattern completely. Mother Nature will do what she wants but their are hints she likes to throw us but sometimes they are very hard to see and other times very clear.

[tron777]

Tim.. I was mistaken earlier. CMC also has the clipper just too far north to do us any good. So the CMC and the Euro have it. GFS and ensembles continue to shear it apart. That's where we stand currently on that system for this coming weekend.

[MVWxObserver]

I fondly remember the winter of '76-'77 also as those were some of the 'Good Old Days'.

Resided at the corner of Pleasant and Belle avenues in the Hamilton 'burb of Lindenwald and was in the 6th grade at Pierce Elementary in Hamilton.

Currently 34 here in G'ville and progged for around 20 Tues morning.

[tron777]

Already down to 30 here. 20 to 25 tonight for a lot of folks should do it. Like Tim mentioned earlier today... in a rural cold valley, can someone drop into the upper teens? It'll be isolated but I am curious nonetheless.

[Bgoney]

A beautiful cold autumn day today and tomorrow , I'll take the fall weather we've had this year anytime, compared to some of the torches recently.


Saw this a few days ago .

Screenshot_20211122-183448_Chrome.jpg

[tron777]

For those who want snow... Rudolph The Red Noised Reindeer is on CBS tonight at 8pm. You can bet your sweet ass that I'll be watching it.

[tron777]

18 here this morning! Got a little colder then I even thought it would in the burbs. CVG was around 20 at last check.

[tron777]

I've dropped to 17. CVG officially got down to 19. Tim... I believe you mentioned the upper teens as being possible... great job! I thought it would be possible in rural areas but not here.

[tpweather]

I've dropped to 17. CVG officially got down to 19. Tim... I believe you mentioned the upper teens as being possible... great job! I thought it would be possible in rural areas but not here.

Good Morning Les and it was all about timing. The winds died down the last few hours and this in turn made it possible for temps to drop several degrees. Nothing beats a clear sky and light winds to see temps tumble and especially since we were not that warm on Monday. We have had several cold mornings in November and folks in the southeast have got off to an early start in terms of frost.Not so much for the south central and southwest states though as that area as missed much of the colder temps this fall.

[tron777]

Still looking at some rain moving in on Thanksgiving Day. Up to 0.25" is possible so not as much as the last system we went thru. Still have a shot at some flurries Thurs night into Fri morning on Black Friday.

Also Tim... the clipper is still there for Sunday. On the overnight runs, the CMC shows a nice swath of light snow for the heart of AV Country including the Tri-state area. Euro is too far north so rain to snow. The GFS only on the 6Z run has it and it's weak and too far south. Only about half of the GEFS members show it and none of them show the ideal track. So really the GFS is still kind of clueless on that particular system if you believe the foreign models.