February 2024 Weather Discussion

[Bgoney]

Russia still winning

IMG_1435.jpeg

[Trevor]

We have a nice baroclinic zone for the weekend storm to tighten up along, just comes down to track and strength. I think our chances are better than this last event before the models started taking a nosedive. Not a guarantee of course, but the threat is there.

[tron777]

12Z RGEM is showing the look that we need to see for Fri night's possible light snow event. We get a 1012 MB low over middle TN tracking along the frontal boundary. GFS continues to be stronger and much further north with that low (on past runs). 12Z NAM and past Euro are showing a solution where the low is too weak so we barely get anything at all. So we want a model blend if the Northern GFS and Southern Euro which is the RGEM at 12Z.

[tron777]

The ICON model sure looks nice too. Too bad its not accurate lol It has the low strength that the GFS has been showing but the track is wonderful for us thru TN and S WV.

[tron777]

12Z GFS coming in south of its 6Z run. Not enough yet to help us out but it's a step in the right direction on this run. I-70 Crew are back in the light snow game.

[tron777]

12Z CMC continues to show a weak pos. Maybe a few flurries at best.

[Trevor]

12Z GFS coming in south of its 6Z run. Not enough yet to help us out but it's a step in the right direction on this run. I-70 Crew are back in the light snow game.

Yeah a nice 2-4" event for I-70. I think further south solutions will continue. I think the lead wave lowers heights and sets the track south. We just don't need it to go TOO far south of course. But like I said I do like our chances with this one better than the last one.

[tron777]

12Z GFS coming in south of its 6Z run. Not enough yet to help us out but it's a step in the right direction on this run. I-70 Crew are back in the light snow game.

Yeah a nice 2-4" event for I-70. I think further south solutions will continue. I think the lead wave lowers heights and sets the track south. We just don't need it to go TOO far south of course. But like I said I do like our chances with this one better than the last one.

I'm digging it too Trev. We'll see what the ENS Guidance says as well as the Euro. Nice thing is... this event is just 3 days out or so. It is starting to get into the NAM and RGEM ranges already. Might need another thread failure... oops I mean started for this one. Ideally, we want to see the foreign models come north and the GFS to go south. If they meet in the middle, we should be able to score.

[tron777]

12Z GEFS has come in south with the low passing just S of I-64 in KY. 1012 MB when it enters the state. 1009 MB in WV so that's nice to see a bit of strengthening as it moves thru KY. We need to find a common balance with this system. We need the right strength to pull up moisture with this thing as well as getting the right track for temp purposes. A 2-4" event is certainly on the table should everything come together correctly of course.

[tron777]

Trev started a new thread folks for the Fri night event. Please continue all discussion on this system in the new thread.

viewtopic.php?t=298

Thank you!

[tpweather]

Will rant about the next storm in the proper place lol but we are in the new pattern and we are seeing quite a bit of energy dropping down in the northwest flow. These systems usually have less moisture available but what can help is we are starting to see ridging that will go up west of here and this kind of pattern can lead to some big surprises in terms of clippers. The warmer air to the west will try and get involved with some of these systems and once in awhile a bigger thump of snow can be produced northeast of the low. Just something to watch over the next week to 10 days. Good thing is we have entered a new pattern and lets see where we go from here.

[tpweather]

Just adding on to the new pattern and that is some really cold air is starting to really show up in eastern Canada and again this is usually the time of year they see their coldest weather and part of that is the Atlantic Ocean is usually at its coldest. This is a pattern where back door cold fronts can throw models off and something I tend to watch this time of year. Also with ridging building out west this can also help in overriding events which yes could mean some ice systems. Do we get enough moisture from the GOM and yes plenty down there but is the wind flow from that area able to push enough moisture northward to really make things interesting.

Going to watch the AO and NAO over the next few days because over the past few days the models sort of back off of the really negative signs but I am not sure that is correct and yes those tellies are important this time of year.

[tron777]

Regarding the MJO, we have some models keeping it in Phase 7, others trying to get it into Phase 8 later this week. We shall see! Regarding the AO and NAO, the AO looks to rise towards neutral and the NAO fall towards neutral. So nothing really either way as it pertains to controlling the pattern.

[tpweather]

Forgot to mentioned but there is a little boundary that could give us a brushing of light snow early Wednesday morning. Again nothing major but with some colder air maybe somebody picks up a couple of tenths of snow Kind you get the broom out and brush it aside but the kind that can fool folks especially on a bridge as some light snow can be tricky and form a thin layer of ice underneath. Hey its least a start lol

[young pup]

As of 2/10, we are still in Phase 7 of the MJO per the Aussies. Looks like we have done a complete circle through Phase 7, so we'll have to wait and see if it can get into Phase 8 or not going forward.

For snow lovers, I am still watching the period around the 16-17th.

Let's not talk about it. Maybe it will happen. Make it a surprise to everyone.

if the modeling doesn't improve, that right there could stop me in my tracks from talking about it.

Ha Ha.

[tron777]

Forgot to mentioned but there is a little boundary that could give us a brushing of light snow early Wednesday morning. Again nothing major but with some colder air maybe somebody picks up a couple of tenths of snow Kind you get the broom out and brush it aside but the kind that can fool folks especially on a bridge as some light snow can be tricky and form a thin layer of ice underneath. Hey its least a start lol

The boys had this to say:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Extensive cu field has developed across portions of the region
this afternoon. Have a few sprinkles and flurries in across far
northern portions of the region this evening, however most
locations will stay dry. Moving later into the overnight there
will be some better forcing. A boundary draped across the
region will be the focus for a thin area of light snow. There
is some dry low level air, but models seem to be in agreement in
at least some light snow overnight and into Wednesday morning.
Have the focus south of Dayton, Ohio and then the southern
extent just south of the Ohio River. Have only minor
accumulations. Due to late overnight and into early Wednesday
daytime hours timeframe cannot rule out some brief slick spots
especially on elevated surfaces. Have a small area outlined in
the HWO with potential slick spots

[MVWxObserver]

CVG got to 51 and both DAY / CMH 50 today.

[tron777]

51 here today. Currently down to 46 with a dew of 29.

[Closet Meteorologist]

Forgot to mentioned but there is a little boundary that could give us a brushing of light snow early Wednesday morning. Again nothing major but with some colder air maybe somebody picks up a couple of tenths of snow Kind you get the broom out and brush it aside but the kind that can fool folks especially on a bridge as some light snow can be tricky and form a thin layer of ice underneath. Hey its least a start lol

The boys had this to say:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Extensive cu field has developed across portions of the region
this afternoon. Have a few sprinkles and flurries in across far
northern portions of the region this evening, however most
locations will stay dry. Moving later into the overnight there
will be some better forcing. A boundary draped across the
region will be the focus for a thin area of light snow. There
is some dry low level air, but models seem to be in agreement in
at least some light snow overnight and into Wednesday morning.
Have the focus south of Dayton, Ohio and then the southern
extent just south of the Ohio River. Have only minor
accumulations. Due to late overnight and into early Wednesday
daytime hours timeframe cannot rule out some brief slick spots
especially on elevated surfaces. Have a small area outlined in
the HWO with potential slick spots

[tpweather]

Forgot to mentioned but there is a little boundary that could give us a brushing of light snow early Wednesday morning. Again nothing major but with some colder air maybe somebody picks up a couple of tenths of snow Kind you get the broom out and brush it aside but the kind that can fool folks especially on a bridge as some light snow can be tricky and form a thin layer of ice underneath. Hey its least a start lol

The boys had this to say:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Extensive cu field has developed across portions of the region
this afternoon. Have a few sprinkles and flurries in across far
northern portions of the region this evening, however most
locations will stay dry. Moving later into the overnight there
will be some better forcing. A boundary draped across the
region will be the focus for a thin area of light snow. There
is some dry low level air, but models seem to be in agreement in
at least some light snow overnight and into Wednesday morning.
Have the focus south of Dayton, Ohio and then the southern
extent just south of the Ohio River. Have only minor
accumulations. Due to late overnight and into early Wednesday
daytime hours timeframe cannot rule out some brief slick spots
especially on elevated surfaces. Have a small area outlined in
the HWO with potential slick spots

That is very funny!! You can see some precip breaking out in central Illinois and not sure if any is reaching the ground yet but towards morning we do have a little better forcing near us an with a bit of precip I believe we can see an hour or two where snow falls. This is nothing major but just enough to get the broom out or let the sun come out to melt.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG got to 51 and both DAY / CMH 50 today.

Both Doug and I were off by 10 pts for DAY's high today in the Temp Challenge!

[tron777]

WarmFeb.jpg

[tron777]

18Z Euro actually spits out 0.07" of QPF for CVG tomorrow morning lol

[tpweather]

18Z Euro actually spits out 0.07" of QPF for CVG tomorrow morning lol

Les its one of those tricky little areas and with the radar already showing returns I would not be surprised to see 0.02 or so.

[Trevor]

You know it’s bad when CB is starting to bail on any upcoming sustained cold lol