Southern OV Snowstorm? Jan 15-16

[tron777]

12Z Euro shows absolutely nothing. I'm wondering how many locations in AV Land will just remain dry and cold for the next few days? Probably most of us I'd say.

[tpweather]

Thanks guys for the response on moving. We are almost done expect the big items on Tuesday. The amount of stuff is amazing over 40 years. Back to the weather and yes I was stubborn on this forecast but I was 75 miles or so to far north with snow. South of I-64 looks like a general 3-6 inches though closer to Louisville maybe 1-3 inches. So the thought process was correct but the arctic air was stronger than I believed without snow on the ground. Still believe we get hit with some light snow especially south of the river and could get near 1/2 inch which will make roads slick just because of how cold the ground is. Will look at the longer term later as my look at the weather over the past few days has been nil.

[tron777]

Glad to hear everything has gone well Tim! When you get caught up and have some time, hopefully you will bring us some much needed luck in the snowfall dept.

[tpweather]

Les hopefully so and just reading some of the NWS to the south and most have boosted snowfall totals for the next few days That is what I thought would happen but again I was too far north with the heavier snow. No doubt once we get into milder air in about 10 days models will be a little too early with the warming at the ground but not above and that is where you start to watch for a system that can bring us frz/rain and snow. Usually a decent snow with bigger changes to the pattern and of course this past week 2 storms but hopefully a big storm comes around the 21-23rd period

[tron777]

Les hopefully so and just reading some of the NWS to the south and most have boosted snowfall totals for the next few days That is what I thought would happen but again I was too far north with the heavier snow. No doubt once we get into milder air in about 10 days models will be a little too early with the warming at the ground but not above and that is where you start to watch for a system that can bring us frz/rain and snow. Usually a decent snow with bigger changes to the pattern and of course this past week 2 storms but hopefully a big storm comes around the 21-23rd period

I've been watching the return flow from the Gulf behind the arctic high. I could see us starting as ice / mix but quickly turning over to rain. WAA looks very strong. Should see temps 45 to 50 in my opinion for a few days before the cold returns.

[tpweather]

Going to see road closures in southern Ky and much of Tn. This kind of cold and rather heavy snow will cause all kinds of problems. My guess many schools in those areas will not be happening all week as they do not have the equipment to handle this kind of storm. You can see as these pieces of energy are moving east they are having a hard time crossing the mountains and no strong system on the east coast to transfer energy. The second piece of energy and maybe 3rd as these get blurry is the strongest of the bunch and this does bring snow further north and west. How far north is still the question but it does not take much to get a light accumulation even as far north as Indy. We are so close to getting a nice snow

[tron777]

Going to see road closures in southern Ky and much of Tn. This kind of cold and rather heavy snow will cause all kinds of problems. My guess many schools in those areas will not be happening all week as they do not have the equipment to handle this kind of storm. You can see as these pieces of energy are moving east they are having a hard time crossing the mountains and no strong system on the east coast to transfer energy. The second piece of energy and maybe 3rd as these get blurry is the strongest of the bunch and this does bring snow further north and west. How far north is still the question but it does not take much to get a light accumulation even as far north as Indy. We are so close to getting a nice snow

So close, yet so far as the old saying goes Tim. We'll see what Thurs and Fri does but until then... I see very little happening. Just cold.

[tpweather]

Les hopefully so and just reading some of the NWS to the south and most have boosted snowfall totals for the next few days That is what I thought would happen but again I was too far north with the heavier snow. No doubt once we get into milder air in about 10 days models will be a little too early with the warming at the ground but not above and that is where you start to watch for a system that can bring us frz/rain and snow. Usually a decent snow with bigger changes to the pattern and of course this past week 2 storms but hopefully a big storm comes around the 21-23rd period

I've been watching the return flow from the Gulf behind the arctic high. I could see us starting as ice / mix but quickly turning over to rain. WAA looks very strong. Should see temps 45 to 50 in my opinion for a few days before the cold returns.

No doubt the WAA looks to be strong but snow cover even to our south in mid-January will take time to melt. So yes up above no doubt warm air but at the surface it takes time. So I believe the changeover will take longer and this no doubt can bring an ice event. With the WAA stronger this imo gives us a better shot of ice because moisture will return quickly before we can warm up the ground

[tron777]

Les hopefully so and just reading some of the NWS to the south and most have boosted snowfall totals for the next few days That is what I thought would happen but again I was too far north with the heavier snow. No doubt once we get into milder air in about 10 days models will be a little too early with the warming at the ground but not above and that is where you start to watch for a system that can bring us frz/rain and snow. Usually a decent snow with bigger changes to the pattern and of course this past week 2 storms but hopefully a big storm comes around the 21-23rd period

I've been watching the return flow from the Gulf behind the arctic high. I could see us starting as ice / mix but quickly turning over to rain. WAA looks very strong. Should see temps 45 to 50 in my opinion for a few days before the cold returns.

No doubt the WAA looks to be strong but snow cover even to our south in mid-January will take time to melt. So yes up above no doubt warm air but at the surface it takes time. So I believe the changeover will take longer and this no doubt can bring an ice event. With the WAA stronger this imo gives us a better shot of ice because moisture will return quickly before we can warm up the ground

Also even if it is rain, the ground will be frozen big time by then so even at 35 for example, light rain could still freeze on contact in some areas. The rate of the rain is key as well as temps. Lighter is better for frz rain versus having heavier precip which tends to run off.

[tpweather]

Paducah already doing better in term of snow this evening. Going to be an overachiever in parts of Kentucky and Tn. Does not take much to get several inches of snow with this kind of cold

[tron777]

Western KY sites are reporting light snow as well as Western and middle TN. Anything north of there on radar is virga attm.

[tpweather]

Western KY sites are reporting light snow as well as Western and middle TN. Anything north of there on radar is virga attm.

Best chance for snow for us is later Monday afternoon and evening. Could be enough for some slick roads. Heck this morning we had slick roads and barely got a trace

[tpweather]

Snowing in Owensboro as well so models still not handling the northward push of snow. Of course only so far north and west but the early returns are noticed

[tron777]

Snowing in Owensboro as well so models still not handling the northward push of snow. Of course only so far north and west but the early returns are noticed

Best returns are S of I-64. I'd be totally shocked if it made it up to us. I am going with a dry forecast tonight.

[tpweather]

Western Kentucky pushed advisories somewhat further north because of accidents with the onset of snow. That is key with this event and it only takes a little snow to cause major problems. This is my concern later on Monday and even 1/2 inch of snow can cause schools to be closed as normal treatments we see around here will have problems

[tpweather]

Light snow in Louisville,Lexington and Frankfort so nice move north. Not sure the extent of the snow this evening but no doubt keeps edging northward. Would not be surprised to see advisories further northwest towards Louisville. Lexington and Frankfort already under the advisory.

[tpweather]

Louisville has decided to extend the advisory further north and just south of our southern counties. How far north will the snow go this evening and models continue have problems.

[MVWxObserver]

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[tron777]

I suppose a snow shower for us cannot be ruled out tomorrow morning but otherwise meh for us on this one.

[Bgoney]

Lex had .07” and Lou had .05” qpf (airports) , around an inch snow overnight for both , higher elevations of course will be enjoying a good deal more to the south/east

[tron777]

Seeing reports in LMK's southern CWA of 1.5 to 3" of snow so far.

[airwolf76]

for me I have 3" so far from this one. its been light since around 10 pm