1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
- tron777
- Major Hurricane
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Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
0Z NAM is startling to come in... let's see what we got here!
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
Back on again and the nam like Les mentioned is running
- tron777
- Major Hurricane
- Posts: 20047
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Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
0Z NAM QPF thru 1pm Sat:
CVG - 0.33"
HAO - 0.16"
MGY - 0.10"
DAY - 0.07"
CMH - 0.15"
FGX - 0.85" - Mainly rain
CVG - 0.33"
HAO - 0.16"
MGY - 0.10"
DAY - 0.07"
CMH - 0.15"
FGX - 0.85" - Mainly rain
- tron777
- Major Hurricane
- Posts: 20047
- Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
- Location: Burlington, KY
- Contact:
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
Ok folks... due to work, I've been up since about 3:30am so I need some sleep so I don't sleep thru the snow in the morning.
I will be back in the morning with some coffee and hopefully enjoying some nice big flakes falling! Please keep up the talk on this system and I'll catch up. ![Smile :)](./images/smilies/icon_e_smile.gif)
![Smilie :lol:](./images/smilies/lol.gif)
![Smile :)](./images/smilies/icon_e_smile.gif)
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
Finally the CVG office put out a special weather statement with 1 inch and upwards of 2 inches in isolated spots. Interesting to see if the models are handling this system correctly.
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
The advisories will be expanded later in typical ILN fashion.
Forecast looks solid. 2-5” for Cincinnati. I’m working tonight so I will pop in as much as possible.
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- Thunder Storm
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Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
Sitting at 32 here with a 26 dp.
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
Nice! You’re already nearly saturated with that DP. I doubt we see much virga except for a little bit right at the beginning. QPF amounts lost will be negligible.
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
Some of those forecasts down in central Ky are not going to verify. Warm air will win out down there. We are in a great spot in the Cincy area!
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- Thunder Storm
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- Joined: Sat Jan 08, 2022 11:11 am
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
GFS seems to be tracking next weekends storm well north. Looks like we get thunderstorms... Hope it trends back south, we are too warm.
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
Anyone is northern Kentucky seeing snow? Dry ridge looks to be getting a nice band
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
Looks like sleet per PING reports.
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
Sleet/flake mix here in Blue Ash.
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
Nothing yet here in Amelia
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
Freezing rain here in Maineville/Morrow area. Deck has a nice glaze all over it. This will be a bust for most on snowfall.
Morrow/Maineville
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
Good Morning and sitting at 33 and light rain. The sneaky little warm layer got us again. I can see where some frz/rain because the temps yesterday were slightly colder than models showed. If the precip can just pick up a tad we can switch to snow for a period of time but higher totals are not happening.
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
Per mesoanalysis we should be snow right now. We are right on the line but unless I’m missing something we are below freezing aloft. Must be a sneaky warm layer not showing up. A sounding would be helpful right now.
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
Trevor that is where models have a problem and you try to forecast around that but its such a fine line especially when temps are marginal and only a set amount of time for an event
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
It’s half/half rain and snow here.
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
Yeah man always a pain. I figured the trouble areas would be down in KY which is why I bumped everything northward.
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
It’s trying to change over here right now. Struggling but it’s trying lol
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
I switched my forecast and went 1-3. Reasoning was I thought we would see between 3 and maybe 6 hours of snow falling. Only about 5 hours left and hopefully can get 3 hours of snow to reach the lower end. My bust was for folks south and that has happened but I thought the overachiever was east of here and ended up towards Indy.
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
The lower end of ranges can still verify we just need it to switch soon. Like you said about five hours of precip left.tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2024 6:48 am I switched my forecast and went 1-3. Reasoning was I thought we would see between 3 and maybe 6 hours of snow falling. Only about 5 hours left and hopefully can get 3 hours of snow to reach the lower end. My bust was for folks south and that has happened but I thought the overachiever was east of here and ended up towards Indy.
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
I can finally report all snow falling here in white oak
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
Starting to see more snow reports showing up on PING.