Has anyone seen the ridiculous 6Z GFS? Gives CVG over 5" of rain LOL We get pounded with rain in the fantasy range. It is the 6Z GFS after all, so we can laugh a bit this morning at it's silliness.

The 12Z NAM and GFS today indicate not much change in the forecast. We have our afternoon storms to keep an eye on, a break late tonight into tomorrow morning, and then Friday afternoon's prospects again. As some have mentioned best threat for Severe might be East or SE of the area but we'll see how that plays out. Scattered showers are still on tap for the weekend and by later on Monday or Tues we finally begin to dry out.

The rest of next week looks decent with dry conditions and avg to slightly above avg temps. By the 21st or so a storm system is still progged to affect the region with rain perhaps ending as a few wet snow flakes as we cool down to below avg. temps for the remainder of the Fantasy Range period and a few more light rain chances as well.

GFS shows a fairly dry week ahead (the 12z run this morning). Then a cold front comes through next weekend with a line of showers and possibly thunderstorms. At this time it doesn't look like we'll have enough moisture return for any severe weather (DPs barely get in the 40s, no CAPE at all) but it's worth watching. That front brings chilly air back in and perhaps a few flakes of snow behind it.

Next week is looking a lot better and we'll get 4 or 5 days to dry out along with moderating temps. We should hit 60 by Thurs or Fri of next week once again. However, the period after 3/20 once again turns stormy and colder as well. The 18Z GFS shows rain to snow on the 24th. 12Z has it as a Lakes Cutter.

Can anyone help with best guesses at this time as to which weekend would be best to plan outside activities as the kids are on spring break and are desperately wanting to go camping either the weekend of March 20th or the following weekend. Any insight would be appreciated thanks in advance to all you more advance weather people.

Currently, the the timing is bad on the weekends. A cold front is forecast to come thru next weekend.

I was afraid of that and was keeping my fingers crossed that something would get bumped ahead of schedule and something would pan out. Will keep watching the forum.

Long Range 12Z GFS this afternoon still looks stormy, but much warmer on today's run and it is keeping that ridiculously cold air bottled up in Canada.

The long range is looking a little less stormy and a little more milder than in recent runs, so that is a good thing for those who are ready for Spring and ready to do more things outdoors after a long winter. Sure, we'll see more rain, but the snow prospects are not showing up and after the cool shot of air Sunday and early next week, we warm right back up and the true arctic air stays bottled up in Canada.

0Z models:

The medium and long range looks stormy and we'll continue to see the usual Spring roller coaster ride in terms of temps. Basically, we will warm into the 50s and 60s ahead of a storm system and drop back into the 40s behind it. Depending on each individual storm's track, will determine whether severe wx will be a threat or not and if any snow flurries will occur behind said system.

12Z GFS Fantasy Alert! Rain to heavy snow on 3/28. 500 Thickness drops close to 534 with 850s of -3 to -5. Low tracks up the Apps. Again, this is a Fantasy Alert, so back to your regularly scheduled programming.

Hey guys, just checking in with your Ohio River update. Right now the river is a little under flood stage and should get just a bit over before it crests sometime tomorrow. I was checking out where it is at on my way home from work and it looks like my old buddies down at Coney Island will have their work cut out for them next week! As of this post the filter house has about 2-3 feet in it, but it sits lowest in the park (Water hits the drains of this building around 49 feet). The water is just about ready to overtake the pool and it is already about half full. I'm gonna try to get some pics from the Island tomorrow and I'll post them up here. Also for any East-siders who don't already know, 4-mile road is closed to through traffic and Kellogg is closed between Coney's main gate and River Downs. DO NOT try to go through this water!!!!!! They have Sheriff patrols ticketing motorists who attempt to drive through and on top of that, the water is almost a foot deep!!! Totally not worth the risk!!!

Thanks for the heads up! Last forecast I heard was for a Crest of 52.1 feet early Thurs morning before it begins to drop.

The 0Z models show the long range as still looking rather unsettled with some more big temperature swings.

Dec 2009 - Feb 2010 Divisional Ranks for the CONUS:

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories201 ... 201002.gif

Very impressive!