Absolute Vorticity

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 11:08 am About a 25+- degree drop in temps Wednesday morning in a 2 to 3 hour span

Can’t wait

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 25, 2024 10:35 am 73 is the record for tomorrow set back in 2000. I think we fall short. But you never know.

Thanks for posting that record. Used it in my post on the page.

We almost always overachieve this time of year with a nice SSW flow and sunshine.

70 is def doable tomorrow. I'm thinking low 70s actually.

I agree with the above. General rain with some thunder and lightning. Could still see up to 1" of rain for totals so a nice soaking indeed which we still could use. I also don’t like the second LP popping. It’ll muck up the atmosphere for better severe odds. As soon as I started seeing that I’...

SPC has marginal for the tri-state for Tuesday/Tuesday night which I agree with. I have definitely become less impressed with our severe potential over the last couple days of model runs. Still isolated severe and something to keep an eye on of course!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Feb 23, 2024 9:23 am Last year compared to this year at this date

IMG_1488.jpegIMG_1489.jpeg

Zoom of Cincinnati this season. Pretty pitiful, but our seasonal average is low compared to areas north because we do see winters like this mixed in. Just the way it goes here in Cincinnati!

Zero difference for us but totally different for the Northern Midwest and Northern Plains.

My forecast…

Add the Canadian to the GFS’s camp for Friday night/Sat morning. I had 50% snow PoPs in my update yesterday and honestly I do buy wetter solutions. Will probably up to likely PoPs in my new update. I could see up to an inch of slushy accum on grass/car tops/etc wherever the little system tracks. No ...

12Z GFS continues to have rain chances Tues and Wed, On this run, we have a wave along the front and an upper low to produce a bit of snow on the 29th. That would be interesting. :lol: GFS also puts down some slushy accumulations late Friday night/early Sat AM. It’s the only model that aggressive w...

Both the 00z GFS and Euro advertise a WICKED storm next week. Severe storms to a thump of snow. Highs winds as well. I’ve been talking about this on my page for a while now but man that was a wild run.

The only changes I have in the short term is to say that the rain might be in a little earlier Thurs so we'll have to see if that screws with the t-storm threat for Thurs. The weekend looks sunny. Cold on Sat but very nice on Sun for outdoor plans. Then we all need to keep a close eye on end of Feb...

Watching Thu for a sneaky strong t’storm threat. Nothing major but isolated small hail and gusty winds possible.

00z GFS advertising quite a large multi-day severe weather outbreak a week from Tuesday. Also something to watch.

15 this morning as expected due to the snowpack, clear skies, and light winds. The snow will take a big hit today with sunshine and SW winds gusting to 30 mph this afternoon. U30s to the L40s are expected for most areas. The weather for next week is quiet with a warming trend. Expecting 50 for Pres...

2-4" forecast worked out pretty well! There is a lack of reports in KY but I do believe they came in a bit lower but overall a very solid forecast.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 7:06 pm A lot of the hi-res models picked up on the I-70 Snow band from late last night and this morning. I saw 5-6" totals but they weren't high enough lol That 18Z NAM'ing wasn't too far off though.

Correct.

dce wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 6:49 pm I really don't buy the 7-8 inch amounts the NWS is talking about, but I hope I'm wrong. If the deformation band goes bonkers in the next couple of hours then maybe.

They have 3-6" for your location. There are two Winter Storm Warnings.

Lightning strike.

This is gonna be pure rippage when it gets here. Nice!

09z SREF looking good...

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 9:06 am Anybody got a snow map from the 12Z NAM? Thanks!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 8:28 am The later start is huge

Agreed.

Info to go along with map... I have only heard / seen thundersnow once or twice in the 40 some years I have lived in Burlington. That would be such a treat if it actually were to occur. I don't know if anyone will see it or not, but some data does suggest some weak instability and steep lapse rates...

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