Absolute Vorticity

Trentonwx06

In the short term, Friday and Saturday still looks to offer up a wet period. I am going dry Sunday and Monday of next week but more POPS are required from Tuesday into Wed of next week as the active pattern shows no signs of letting up. It's a bit early for a solid Memorial Day weekend forecast but...

Trentonwx06

The boundary is pretty much on top of us as we speak. Juicier dews and some weak CAPE exists just to our SW. I would look for storms to fire up this afternoon along the boundary. As usual, we shall see how things go. It's never a slam dunk in our area as we all know. The Today Show did a story from...

Trentonwx06

Mesoscale Discussion issued for area. Tornado Watch issuance 95%.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0167.ht

Trentonwx06

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:15 pm 17Z HRRR is picking up where the 16Z run left off.

Latest RAP is showing same as well. See what happens.

Trentonwx06

12Z NAM looks good to me for everyone in the forum. See the next couple frames.

Trentonwx06

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 6:30 am I forgot to post about the 6Z NAM. Eyeballing it, it looks like we get a heavy band of snow for all of the Tri-state / Metro area. Wish I could get to Accuwx pro and look at QPF right now. What's the snow map show?

Trentonwx06

NAM 18Z

Trentonwx06

Lets see what 18Z HRRR leading into Happy Hour and go from there.

Trentonwx06

Hopefully RFFS can score but it is new.

Trentonwx06

12Z UK

Trentonwx06

All right Happy Hour model run time!

Trentonwx06

12Z EPS Mean looks good.

Trentonwx06

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 10, 2024 12:48 pm Add the UKIE to the weaker model camp. Hopefully we see the Euro stick to the more GFS like solution. I don't see why it wouldn't. If the stronger solutions are real, we should see the meso's come around tomorrow.

The 12Z? It seems stuck on Pivotal.

Trentonwx06

12Z Euro

Trentonwx06

Deck view from Maineville.

Trentonwx06

18Z HRRR

Trentonwx06

12Z Ukie

Trentonwx06

I will let Bgoney or someone else post GEFS but looks like it increased as well for 12Z suite.

Trentonwx06

15Z RAP

Trentonwx06

12Z ICON

Trentonwx06

12Z short range Canadian

Trentonwx06

12Z NAM 3km which even looks better for the area. Yes! I just looked at it myself and I think it has better deform or backside snow for the area versus the regular NAM. Could you check the Nested NAM too please? I think it is on the College of DuPage site. EDIT: I believe this is the link. https://...

Trentonwx06

12Z NAM 3km which even looks better for the area. Yes! I just looked at it myself and I think it has better deform or backside snow for the area versus the regular NAM. Could you check the Nested NAM too please? I think it is on the College of DuPage site. EDIT: I believe this is the link. https://...

Trentonwx06

12Z NAM 3km which even looks better for the area.

Trentonwx06

12Z NAM

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