Hadn’t looked at the hi-res NAM until now . Needless to say it echos NAM severe parameters, but shows supercells developing late afternoon (5ish) in cvgland before an evolving squall line races in late evenin Sunday That sure is a wicked looking squall line too when the model ends at 8pm Sunday loc...

12Z GFS wants to bring things in earlier with the warm front and with the late afternoon and evening convection. I think using models like the NAM and eventually the HRRR is the way to go versus a global model like the GFS. But anyway, we'll see how things trend as we get closer.

12Z NAM is still suggesting that the main show is in that 11pm to 1am range for us overnight Sun night.

BG's video - Already in progress...

Thanks Bgoney for posting that. I saw it posted on Facebook earlier this morning but I didn't get time to share it on our forum so again, thanks! From what I have read, the CSU Learning model, (pictured above) has been on a roll! It's verification scores have been excellent for the most part. So lik...

Wonder what the percentile chance (SPC) for tornadoes e.g. will be come Sun ...? That, at least for myself, is the biggest concern. I saw a few days ago an article via Accuweather or Weather Underground where Ohio e.g. leads the country in tornadoes this year. :o That will start with tomorrow's Out...

I just checked the 6Z NAM and it's pretty slow with the whole thing for Sunday. Looks like a line of convection with the warm front passes thru IND around 5-6pm then the convection with the low / cold front, comes in by late evening. For us locally in Cincinnati, this could be primarily an overnigh...

I just checked the 6Z NAM and it's pretty slow with the whole thing for Sunday. Looks like a line of convection with the warm front passes thru IND around 5-6pm then the convection with the low / cold front, comes in by late evening. For us locally in Cincinnati, this could be primarily an overnight...

Once we get into the hires model range probably by tomorrow, we should be able to see when the warm front is supposed to pass thru IND then how much of a dry window does that area see before the late afternoon / evening convection ahead of the surface low moves in.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 6:13 am Much of Ohio/Indiana will be welcoming that rain by Sunday as by then it will have been a week since appreciable rain has fallen for a good chunk of that region

Very true, but it will also come at a price.... well potentially anyway.

Dense fog advisory has been issued for all NKY counties until 10am. I did not see any on the drive into work from NKY. ..DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING... * WHAT...Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Indiana and northeast and n...

Good morning all! Only expecting scattered coverage until we get to Sunday. All eyes are on Sunday now and the SPC has the enhanced risk further North and East to include our NKY counties. For us, I think we'll need to see what happens in the morning esp with the warm front then sometime in the even...

Only 7 days left to enter folks! Please get those guesses in!

We're on another bad losing skid... Bluejays crushed us 9-1. Matt Manning will try it at 6:40pm this evening.

I think models from yesterday did a good job with this evenings organized storms staying to our south , with just an isolated shower in our southern counties Agreed. I backed off in a few of my posts from earlier and went with scattered activity for today, tomorrow, and Sat. I think that is going t...

75 currently... Watching radar as it is trying to get a little more busy over SW IN. Les, I've noticed this bow on radar that's west of Bowling Green KY moving NE but may just affect northern KY in a few hours unless we can get some further development in southern IN? We just didn't get quite enoug...

75 currently... Watching radar as it is trying to get a little more busy over SW IN.

71 / 65 as of 12pm at CVG with a little sunshine trying to get thru the clouds. We have a little bit of CAPE now about 1000 J/KG and a little pocket of 50 knot shear over us. Looking at radar, Watching the next little batch moving NE into SE MO, now getting into SW ILL. We'll have to see how much th...

House of Cards wrote: ↑Thu May 23, 2024 8:51 am First measurable snowfall November 12th.

Love it!

In the short term, the latest radar shows a scattered area of showers and t-storms approaching the area from the SW. Nothing severe but some folks will see some rain later on this morning. Les leaving at 11am heading to Nashville. Maybe I get lucky and miss the morning rain. Nashville does not bode...

In the short term, the latest radar shows a scattered area of showers and t-storms approaching the area from the SW. Nothing severe but some folks will see some rain later on this morning.

One thing that I continue to keep seeing on the models is a push of cooler air / below avg temps for the region towards the end of this month on into early June. We're talking highs in the low 70s with lows in the upper 50s. That is for Cincinnati. Could even see temps staying in the 60s and lows d...

One thing that I continue to keep seeing on the models is a push of cooler air / below avg temps for the region towards the end of this month on into early June. We're talking highs in the low 70s with lows in the upper 50s. That is for Cincinnati. Could even see temps staying in the 60s and lows de...

The outlook for Sunday, Day 4 from the SPC: day4prob.gif As usual , how much convection dominates early in the day will determine how extensive severe chance will be. Looking at the parameters at this stage , I’m hoping we get plenty of early day showers, otherwise it could get ugly in our region A...