CAPE has now increased to 2000 - 2500 J/KG range for the Cincy Metro, NKY and SE counties.

3KM NAM's arrival time is similar to the HRRR's but the storms pack a punch! The sounding shows conditions favorable for all severe wx hazards including tornadoes as winds veer with heights and they try and back more to the SE at the surface. Large hail and wind is also of concern per this model. Pr...

I like your update there Trev. I think it'll also work out as you described. You can really feel the stickiness in the air! It'll be interesting to see how much rain we see thru Monday morning. 1-2" is a good call. Some folks less some more per the usual. Good Morning Les. Trying to figure out...

I like your update there Trev. I think it'll also work out as you described. You can really feel the stickiness in the air! It'll be interesting to see how much rain we see thru Monday morning. 1-2" is a good call. Some folks less some more per the usual.

Good morning all! SPC has expanded the enhanced risk area further to the NE covering more of AV Country. Damaging winds will be the greatest risk for us. Hail and tornadoes are still a threat but the greatest threat for those two will be to our south and SW. Radar has round 1 already moving into St....

I hit 81 today. We'll see what happens tomorrow. Get a good night's sleep tonight just in case.

Browneyedgirl wrote: ↑Sat May 25, 2024 3:52 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat May 25, 2024 3:49 pm Got the brush pile burnt. Now it's time for cold beer! Got the grill going now. Baked potato, portobella mushroom and a t-bone steak! That'll be a nice meal!

Sounds great! Enjoy!!

Thanks Lisa! I sure will. )

Tigers win 2-1. We are hoping to win the series tomorrow morning at 11:35 am

Got the brush pile burnt. Now it's time for cold beer! Got the grill going now. Baked potato, portobella mushroom and a t-bone steak! That'll be a nice meal!

Got the grass knocked down just in case we get a lot of rain so it's not a jungle by next weekend. :lol: Going to try and burn my big brush pile too. It's a collection of trimming the trees and such last Fall. It's been either too hot, too windy, or too wet so I have not been able to get it done. Ho...

Nice model battle shaping up between the 12Z HRRR (keeping the warm frontal activity together, longer) versus the 12Z NAM which weakens it. The end result will be how strong the line will be for Sunday evening / overnight depending on which scenario plays out earlier in the day.

Special video from BG, he is LIVE right now:

An update from the boys for the rest of your Saturday: .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A weak cold front will push slowly east across our area today. While the better upper level forcing will remain to our north, as we destabilize through the afternoon, isolated to scattered showers and thun...

I checked the soundings from the 6Z NAM and it looked pretty concerning for wind and hail esp. Even a tornado threat too with winds trying to back around to the south at the surface. The 6Z HRRR keeps the activity with the warm front stronger so we don't destabilize quite as much for the overnight s...

Good morning folks! Got a couple of hundredths here last night. CVG picked up 0.03" A slight chance for a t-storm today, with the best chance SE of Cincinnati. Tonight won't be so bad for those having cookouts or bonfires. It should be a nice evening! All eyes continue to be on Sunday. The enha...

We finally won one 6-2. 1:10pm today with my boy Reese Olson.

Looks like I may get a ground wetter this evening.

Good afternoon all... I made it home in one piece! YAY! :lol: As expected, the traffic is tough out there. Weatherwise... not much change. Isolated storms possible until we get to Sunday. If some of the guidance is right, storm coverage is scattered and the bulk of it comes Sun night into Memorial D...

Hadn’t looked at the hi-res NAM until now . Needless to say it echos NAM severe parameters, but shows supercells developing late afternoon (5ish) in cvgland before an evolving squall line races in late evenin Sunday That sure is a wicked looking squall line too when the model ends at 8pm Sunday loc...

12Z GFS wants to bring things in earlier with the warm front and with the late afternoon and evening convection. I think using models like the NAM and eventually the HRRR is the way to go versus a global model like the GFS. But anyway, we'll see how things trend as we get closer.

12Z NAM is still suggesting that the main show is in that 11pm to 1am range for us overnight Sun night.

BG's video - Already in progress...

Thanks Bgoney for posting that. I saw it posted on Facebook earlier this morning but I didn't get time to share it on our forum so again, thanks! From what I have read, the CSU Learning model, (pictured above) has been on a roll! It's verification scores have been excellent for the most part. So lik...

Wonder what the percentile chance (SPC) for tornadoes e.g. will be come Sun ...? That, at least for myself, is the biggest concern. I saw a few days ago an article via Accuweather or Weather Underground where Ohio e.g. leads the country in tornadoes this year. :o That will start with tomorrow's Out...

I just checked the 6Z NAM and it's pretty slow with the whole thing for Sunday. Looks like a line of convection with the warm front passes thru IND around 5-6pm then the convection with the low / cold front, comes in by late evening. For us locally in Cincinnati, this could be primarily an overnigh...