No changes to the 12:30pm SPC Day 1 convective outlook. PWATS are currently at 1.7" right over us so heavy rainfall is likely with this first batch as it moves thru. Sub severe wind and hail is also possible but this is nothing to be honest as to what could happen later as we've been talking ab...

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN BRACKEN... CENTRAL CAMPBELL...NORTHEASTERN PENDLETON...CLERMONT AND NORTHWESTERN BROWN COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM EDT... At 101 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over New Richmond, moving northeast at 45 mph. HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45...

Great posts Tim and Matt... thank you Sir for sharing that info from ILN. Very informative and it looks like they are on the same page as we are. 72 / 67 as of 12pm at CVG.

Hot off the presses from the boys: .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Morning update trended the forecast towards HRRR/RAP blended into current forecast. This seemed on track for T/Td and accounted for line of storms crossing the CWA this morning, with a break behind it. While placement and occ...

12Z Operational NAM has rain today but I don't see anything intense until this evening and that's when it has those scattered supercells impacting the Tri-state, The 3KM NAM or the Hi-res NAM is much more like the HRRR that I talked about earlier which is I think the way to go. Here is the sounding...

Great Post Les and we are on the same page and Brian talked about what we are seeing at the moment and how he had to readjust his forecast somewhat with new information. I agree about the models and the hrrr is good for the short term because it updates every hour and like this morning the line of ...

Now that we have looked at some data, and this is what Tim was eluding too, is that can we believe it? What is actually happening in real time right now? Weak CAPE is already trying to build into the Tri-state despite the cloud cover. The airmass is very juicy and will continue to get juicer as time...

12Z Operational NAM has rain today but I don't see anything intense until this evening and that's when it has those scattered supercells impacting the Tri-state, The 3KM NAM or the Hi-res NAM is much more like the HRRR that I talked about earlier which is I think the way to go. Here is the sounding ...

Despite the date being wrong on this video, BG is LIVE right now. (As of this post)

I'll have more here shortly... on my lunch break now and outside of the "Iron Curtain" I will be able to make better posts for the next hour. NAM will be coming out here shortly too so let's see what it looks like for later today.

12Z HRRR is running and so far from what I have seen, that line to our West weakens significantly as it arrives very early on this afternoon. Then we get scattered supercells that are discrete forming around 4 or 5pm. Then by this evening we get that line coming in from Indiana late this evening. I ...

9Z SREF is out far enough now and for late this afternoon, it's got Cincinnati pegged at 75% for the significant TOR ingredients map! That drops to 60% by 8pm then 45% by late evening. Wow... I am concerned about that. Let's hope that is wrong. I'm logged on via the customer side here so I cannot po...

12Z ILN sounding is out now and you can go here to see it for yourself. Convective temp is 75 degrees today which of course isn't going to be a problem exceeding that temp. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/24050712_OBS/ No changes to the Day 1 Outlook from the SPC that was just issued. Below...

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue May 07, 2024 8:35 am Barely a drop of rain here - yes my wife planted her flowers so the dome is back!

Def need to watch mesoscale features for later today as it could get quite busy!

Good morning Mike! Glad you're here. Always appreciate your posts and analysis especially during severe wx events.

That is rather concerning Les and with the storms to the west weakening this morning you are left with some nice boundaries and then with a warm front approaching this can lead to a nice setup for tornado's. Will no doubt be busy later today again we are looking at models and what they see happenin...

Great Post Les!!! Will be watching this afternoon to see how unstable the atmosphere becomes and my guess some isolated showers in the afternoon but probably not until after 7 or 8pm to see some of the stronger storms. The one thing I know for sure is how damp it is and the almost constant headache...

6Z Hires NAM sounding near CVG valid around 8pm this evening. Pretty concerning... nam4km_2024050706_018_38.99--84.62.png 6Z HRRR also agrees! hrrr_2024050706_018_38.97--84.52.png These are model projected soundings don't forget. But man... this could be a very busy evening if this is even close to ...

A lot of clouds out there this morning / fog per the visible satellite picture. However, there will still be plenty of dynamics in play especially with the warm front later this afternoon and evening. All of the good shear, helicity, and CAPE are along and SW of the warm front in the warm sector whi...

Hey Trev.... those maps look good my friend! :thumbsup: Nice work! I believe the next update from the SPC comes out at 9am with regards to today's convective outlook. We should be able to see the morning sounding from ILN as well. For now... great post Tim with regards to flooding. The ground is sat...

Latest thinking from the boys: .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Vigorous low pressure over the northern Plains will lead to a moist southwest flow of air across the Ohio Valley today. A decaying band of showers with isolated thunder is expected to slide east through the region late this morni...

Good morning all! CVG's event total is now up to 0.64". 0.72" at the Boone Co mesonet and around 0.70" here. These totals are since May 4th. After a foggy start this morning, showers and t-storms will once again be likely from around midday onwards thru the evening hours. All Location...

Tigers bat have been and continue to be cold as ice. We drop another one 2-1. Next one with the Indians is tonight at 6:10pm with Kenta Maeda.

Good afternoon folks! Great posting as usual this afternoon and I thank everyone for chipping in around here! :thumbsup: Been seeing some light rain here at home for the last hour or so since I got home from work. Updated totals as of 5pm.... CVG - 0.09" Me - 0.12" Boone Co Mesonet - 0.38&...

High risk issued for parts of Oklahoma today! Could Moore, OK get whacked for yet a third time??? Sure hope not. Prayers for sure go out to those folks! I read the discussion from the SPC and it makes you go :shocked: Hi Les, Moore is where our weather friend Jeremy Moses e.g. resides. He's a north...

Been very busy at work today so at some point later today, I will try my best to take a look at tomorrow's set up a little more closely and make another post. Thanks all! Oh and BTW, if anyone else cares to make some posts, by all means please do so!