I checked the sounding from the 12Z HRRR and for CVG, it does show a marginally severe set up after 4pm Tuesday. The 12Z NAM is a bit slower showing basically the same thing after 6pm Tuesday. It is border line though as I've stated before. I don't think Trev is wrong at all for issuing a marginal ...

Euro has a nice band of thunderstorms tomorrow evening. As ILN stated and I agree, lower CAPE values will keep the ceiling fairly low for this one. 500-1000j/kg likely...somewhere in there. This favors isolated, pulse strong/marginally severe storms versus longer-lasting intense thunderstorms. EDIT:...

Here's the NAM which may represent the localized nature even better.

I definitely agree with ILN re: heavy downpours. Here's the HRRR to help illustrate that. Some areas will likely score...possibly big...tomorrow in the rainfall department.

I issued a 1/5 risk of severe for my coverage area tomorrow. SPC has nothing but I see enough evidence to support it. Details found on my page. Good morning Trev! I did not get a chance to see the latest Euro. Is it still the aggressive model? I'm still on the edge with this personally. I just thin...

I issued a 1/5 risk of severe for my coverage area tomorrow. SPC has nothing but I see enough evidence to support it. Details found on my page.

Thinking a 1/5 risk for severe is looking like a good bet for Tue. Planning to add one into my afternoon forecast update today.

Euro is most aggressive.

Yeah tomorrow is questionable for sure. It’ll be close. Best threat is south but we still stand a risk for isolated to scattered severe up this way.

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Severe wx risk(s) next week seem to be losing steam in our part of the world due to the above mentioned reasons. Every system weakens as it heads our way next week.

Looks like SPC read my post! Their new outlook matches mine to a T. Lol

High res guidance sends us back into the middle and upper 80s today. Clouds and some areas of storms will probably inhibit this from happening. Should do lower 80s though. It wouldn't shock me. The rain chances aren't very high today. I think we see isolated activity until the boundary comes back n...

High res guidance sends us back into the middle and upper 80s today. Clouds and some areas of storms will probably inhibit this from happening. Should do lower 80s though. It wouldn't shock me. The rain chances aren't very high today. I think we see isolated activity until the boundary comes back n...

My latest post.

High res guidance sends us back into the middle and upper 80s today. Clouds and some areas of storms will probably inhibit this from happening. Should do lower 80s though.

Still not very enthusiastic about Wednesday’s severe potential. Another messy setup with morning clouds and rain/storms. The low weakening doesn’t help either. Add in poor frontal timing and I just don’t see things getting too crazy here locally. Marginal risk based on coverage may do it.

42 currently at CVG, 39 here. Event total at CVG is 1.8" even though I know some of you did exceed the 2" mark. Next up for rain chances will be late tomorrow afternoon into very early Monday as a warm front passes thru. For Cincy the risk for a t-storm is small. Best chance looks to be t...

42 currently at CVG, 39 here. Event total at CVG is 1.8" even though I know some of you did exceed the 2" mark. Next up for rain chances will be late tomorrow afternoon into very early Monday as a warm front passes thru. For Cincy the risk for a t-storm is small. Best chance looks to be t...

As expected, the severe threat in the tri-state did not materialize. Very surprised the SPC took so long to relief the slight from our area.

Good Afternoon and not much change in the forecast. Best chances of heavier rain will be in the overnight and especially in that 4-9a time period. Next chance will be later in the afternoon as the front comes through but how fast and what recovery time from the morning rains will help determine the...

Not overly enthusiastic about the severe probs on Thu. Looks like another really messy setup. As Bgoney said before, we need better capping in the warm sector or else we will have junk showers/storms that contaminate the atmosphere. Best threat Thu east of 75 and I see no reason to upgrade. Marginal...

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Apr 09, 2024 12:13 am I heard on the WDTN2 weather that ILN may have a wind advisory or even a high wind warning possibly for Thurs night and Fri.

I could see maybe a wind advisory at most but currently don't see speeds high enough for a warning.

Intercepted totality in Centerville. Awesome! Did a FB live but man the video didn't do it justice. The phone camera autocorrected for low light. It was so dark!!

Great Posts all. Feel very lucky yesterday as the potential was to have a major outbreak. Hype is always tough because if you hype too much it looks bad or if you don't hype enough and get a severe outbreak you look bad. With severe weather I don't mind a little hype just so folks are aware what co...